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En route to confederation
1.10.2007
By Moti Ashkenazi
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Process of national disintegration in Mideast
accelerating; is it good for Israel?
October
1, 2007
No, it won't happen tomorrow or even in a year, but
the Middle East, which for decades was the most
stable global region in terms of regime stability,
is about to face a series of shocks and changes that
will gradually change its face. At this time, we are
watching the beginning of the road to a different
Middle East.
The process of disintegration of the national
structure that was shaped by British and French
colonialism in the wake of World
War I is underway. Powers that were occupied until
recently under strict dictators are raising their
heads. Iraq is only the first layer; the first arena
where forces that were liberated by an external
element are wrestling. These forces were freed from
the chokehold of a dominant and repressive regime,
which up until now was the distinguishing attribute
of the Arabic-speaking region.
Those following Iraq honestly can see how a mutual
and reckless massacre is leading to massive "ethnic
mobility" that gradually shifts each of the dominant
groups to the main area under their control as it
was ages ago. Friction among Shiites, Sunnis and
Kurds, in the form of mutual killings, takes place
particularly in areas where the population
intermixed over the last generations.
Iraq is gradually shaping up to become a sort of
confederation, even though it seemingly maintains a
central government. The level of violence we see
during this process is not unusual in the region and
is not new. What is being disintegrated is not the
shared culture, but rather, the political structure
that has been forced upon the region from the
outside by a different political and diplomatic
culture.
This process of change is irreversible. It's a trend
that will gradually affect the stability of other
countries in the region and afflict them with the
same "virus," as the structure that was maintained
in Iraq up until the toppling of Saddam Hussein
characterizes almost every other regional country.
That is, ethnic rivalry, control by a minority group
via repression of the others, an attachment between
the makeup of the military and defense forces and
the political establishment achieved by appointing
regime loyalists, abject poverty and backwardness
vis-à-vis immense investment in the security forces,
tight government hold over economic elements, and
particularly a middle class that is too small to
constitute a basis for a democratic regime.
Iran not immune either
The spread of the "virus" is the most rapid in
Lebanon. There, the Shiites, with Syria's help, are
threatening the western-orientated lifestyle of
other ethnic groups. Yet Syria, in its efforts to
swallow up Lebanon, and through its indirect
involvement in Iraq, is accelerating the spread of
the "virus" to its own territory as well.
Syria, with its own hands, boosts a model of
separatism and internal threat on the part of the
majority group, which feels discriminated against by
the minority group. The Sunni majority, which
includes radical Islam, is observing and closely
studying what is going on both in Iraq and Lebanon.
A Sunni uprising could accelerate a confederate
structure in Syria as well.
Iran too is not immune to minority group demands for
autonomy, and later on, a change in its national
structure and formulation of a confederation. This
is particularly true if we take into account that
the Kurdish and Azeri minorities in Iran also
closely watch the Iraq upheaval, as well as the fact
that a significant part of Iranian youths are
adopting western cultural values. The current
radicalization could actually constitute a catalyst
for a structural change in the not too distant
future.
For Israel, the process of ethnic separatism on the
one hand and the creation of supra-national
community structure on the other hand, create a much
more comfortable environment for accepting a Jewish
state as an integral part of the Arabic-speaking
region. This is not a fleeting "window of
opportunity," but rather, a structured process. In
the Middle East, one needs patience and
level-headedness.
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