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US-Coordinated Turkish Military Action
into Kurdistan Iraq Soon
22.1.2007 |
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January
22, 2007
Reliable intelligence sources predict a US-
coordinated Turkish cross-border operation into
Kurdistan (Northern Iraq) against PKK camps due to
take place most possibly in late February or early
March
It has become highly likely that the US will decide
most possibly this Wednesday to allow the Turkish
military to stage a cross-border operation into
Northern Iraqi Kurdistan region in late February or
early March to render both the PKK/Kongra Gel
(Turkey's outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party and
Kurdistan People's Congress) terrorists and their
logistics in the region ineffective. But this
operation will be limited in time, most possibly two
weeks, and limited in depth - not too far into Iraq
thus limited in geographic boundaries that the US
will define. If Washington decides to allow Turkey,
in cooperation with the US, to stage a cross- border
operation this would also prevent any Turkish
unilateral intervention in the region whose
consequences would be catastrophic.
Well informed Turkish intelligence sources told
Today's Zaman that US President George Bush's senior
advisors from both the Central Intelligence Agen cy
(CIA) and the National Security Council as w ell as
Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Defense
Secretary Robert Gates are expected to get together
on Jan. 24 to decide what to do with the PKK.
"That meeting will signify the US is getting closer
to a decision over what to do with the PKK. By the
end of this week we will know what Bush' ;s exact
decision is following recommendations from his
advisors. It is hard to say now what the advisors
will recommend. But a Turkish military cross-border
operation coordinated with the US cannot be ruled
out,&quo t; said a senior Turkish intelligence
source. A possible decision to allow the Turkish
military to stage a cross-border operation in
coordination with the US became a more possible
option in light of the Iraqi governments
ineffectiveness in acting against the PKK based in
several camps, including a major camp in the Qandil
mountains in Kurdish-dominated Northern Iraqi
Kurdistan, as well as the refusal of Iraqi Kurds to
meet Turkish demands to not allow PKK rebels to act
freely in the region.
According to Turkish military sources, an area
almost 20 to 30 kilometer s inside Iraqi territory
off the Turkish border is controlled by the PKK,
making it easy for their terrorists to infiltrate
Turkey for attacks, mainly in the country' s
southeast. A possible Turkish attempt to stage a
unilateral cross-border operation inside Iraq
prompted Washington t o appoint a US Special
Coordinator for dealing with the PKK, retired US
General and former NATO commander Joseph Ralston,
last year in summer. This was followed by Turkey
appointing retired General Edip Baser as the Turkish
coordinator for the same purpose.
Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan recently
raised his dissatisfaction with the PKK coordination
mechanism when he said it had produced nothing in
rendering the PKK ineffective. This was followed by
the first concrete step taken by US and Iraqi forces
when they stormed the Makhmur camp in Northern Ira q
last week. The PKK has long controlled t he camp
stuffed with almost 12,000 Turkish fami lies of
Kurdish origin who escaped from Turkey in the early
1990s.
Though the United Nations High Commissioner for
Refugees (UNHCR) is responsible for the camp, in
reality t he PKK has been using the camp to recruit
young fighters and to meet its logistic needs.
While the US administrati on is expected to make a
final decision ove r what to do with the PKK during
its scheduled Wednesday meeting, Ralston is expected
to visit both Iraq and Turkey later this month. He
is expected to give the final touches to a possible
Turkish cross-border operation in to Northern Iraq,
intelligence sources said .
If the US decides to allow Turkey to undertake a
cross-border operation, this would signal Bush's
awareness to not lose Turkey while losing hope with
Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri El Maliki - blamed by
Washington for not being effective enough in
stopping sectarian violence in Iraq as a whole.
The US believes that Iraqi Kurds are not expected to
cause any problem if a Turkish cross-border
operation is coordinated with the US.
PKK congress to be prevented
According to Turkish intelligence sources, any
possible US-coordinated Turkish cross-border
operation is highly likely to take place in late
February. That would also enable Turkey to prevent
the planned PKK/ Kongra Gel Congress in Kurdistan
(Northern Iraq) to take place during the same time.
Zubeyr Aydar and Murat Karayilan are expected to
stand as candidates for Kongra Gel Presidency while
Duran Kalkan, Cemil Bayik and Fehman Husey in are to
become candidates for the presidency of the
Executive Committee of this Kurdish rebel
organization.
The cross-border operation is expected to be carried
out by airborne troops supported by attack
helicopters. Air strikes on PKK targets will thus be
a less likely form of operations.
Operations will be window-dressing
Both the US and some members of the Turkish
political leadership a re well aware that any
Turkish cross-border operation would be window
dressing for Turkey rather than achieving any
long-term solution to Turkey's Kurdish problem.
But as senior Turkish military officials of ten tell
their US counterparts, if nothing has been done
against the PKK in Northern Ira q the Turkish people
will lose faith in the country's politically
powerful military. Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan,
who intends to stand as a candidate during May p
residential elections and with a general election
later this year, would support a Turkish military
operation in coordination with the US to win the
hearts and minds of the majority of the public which
has tended to blame the US for increased PKK attacks
in t he southeast because they believe the root
cause is Northern Iraq.
Meanwhile, though the Turkish military is aware of
the dangers any military attempt to seize the
oil-rich northern Iraqi city of Kirkuk carries, a
cross-border operation against the PKK, they
believe, will be an intimidation factor to the Iraqi
Kurds.
todayszaman.com | zaman com.tr
The use of the term "Kurdistan" is vigorously
rejected due to its alleged political implications
by the Republic of Turkey, which does not recognize
the existence of a "Turkish Kurdistan"
Southeast Turkey. The Kurds have no rights in
Turkey.
Others estimate as many as 40 million Kurds live in
Big Kurdistan (Iraq, Turkey, Syria, Iran, Armenia),
which covers an area as big as France, about half of
all Kurds which estimate to 20 million live in
Turkey.
The Kurdish flag flown officially in Iraqi Kurdistan but
unofficially flown by Kurds in Armenia. The flag is
banned in Iran, Syria, and Turkey where flying it is
a criminal offence"
Southeastern Turkey:
North Kurdistan (
Kurdistan-Turkey) wikipedia
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