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Turkish election fever fuels
Kurdistan-Iraq threats
19.1.2007
By Gareth Jones |
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January 19, 2007
ANKARA, -- From Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan
down, Turkey's politicians are threatening military
intervention in Kurdistan (northern Iraq) to crush
Turkish Kurdish rebels hiding there if, as seems
sure, US forces fail to tackle them.
Most analysts link the threats, which are not new
but are flowing much more thickly now, to the
approach of elections in Turkey and the politicians'
need to appear tough in the eyes of an increasingly
nationalistic and anti-US electorate.
But there is a risk the politicians may get swept
along by their rhetoric into rash decisions. Air
raids on mountain hideouts of Kurdish Labour Party (PKK)
rebels or small-scale commando raids over the border
are possible, some analysts say.
"There is a Turkish proverb that says, 'the dog
that barks does not bite'... The politicians are
just making lots of noise, provoking each other in
the search for votes," said Dogu Ergil of Ankara
University, author of books on the Kurdish issue.
"But exaggerated rhetoric that ends with no action
could undermine their credibility in the public's
eyes," he said.
Turkey's parliament chooses a new president in May —
many think Erdogan will go for the top job, despite
worries over his Islamist past — and voters elect a
new parliament in November.
"I would say half the noise we are hearing now on
Iraq and the Kurds is about the presidential
elections, the other half is about
the general election. Iraq is an easy issue to
exploit," said Semih Idiz, diplomatic correspondent
of CNN Turk TV.
"It is posture politics, but there is a danger of it
all getting out of hand," he said.
Frustration
There is no doubting Turkey's frustration over the
failure of its NATO ally the United States to crush
the estimated 4,000 PKK fighters hiding in
mountainous, mainly Kurdish north Iraq.
Washington, like Turkey, brands the PKK a terrorist
group.
The two allies have appointed envoys to coordinate
anti-PKK measures. But clearly the PKK is not a
priority for Washington as it struggles to avert
full-blown civil war in Iraq.
Turkish officials welcomed a US army raid on a
Kurdish refugee camp in northern Iraq on Wednesday
as a first sign of better cooperation.
Ankara says the camp is used by the PKK, but it also
knows one raid will make no difference to the
rebels.
Turkey's parliament is holding a debate on Iraq on
Thursday and again — in closed session — next
Tuesday.
Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul, Defence Minister
Vecdi Gonul and General Yasar Buyukanit, head of the
army General Staff, all plan to visit Washington
next month to reiterate Turkey's worries.
"We have urged the government for the past four
years to send troops into Iraq to secure our shared
border," said Onur Oymen, a senior lawmaker in
Turkey's nominally leftist but nationalist-minded
opposition Republican People's Party (CHP).
"This has nothing to do with elections. We have a
right to protect our own security," he told Reuters.
Last year, the PKK killed nearly 100 Turkish
security personnel, mostly in Turkey's mainly
Kurdish southeast. More than 30,000 people have died
in Turkey since the PKK began its armed campaign for
a Kurdish homeland in 1984.
Despite a PKK ceasefire declared last October,
Turkey expects an upsurge in attacks when the snows
melt in spring.
Apart from the PKK, Turkey fears that Iraqi Kurds
will seize the oil-rich but ethnically diverse city
of Kirkuk after a planned referendum this year and
incorporate it into their autonomous region as a
prelude to creating an independent state.
Erdogan this week repeated claims that 600,000 Kurds
have moved into Kirkuk in the past few years in a
deliberate attempt to crowd out the Arabs and
Turkish-speaking Turkmens while the United States —
"our supposed strategic ally" — looked on.
Most analysts dismiss the idea of deploying Turkish
troops to Kirkuk, which is deep inside Iraq, not on
the border. This would turn Turks back into
occupiers in a region they dominated for centuries
within the Ottoman Empire.
Major military action by Turkey would wreck
relations with both the United States and the
European Union, which Ankara aspires to join. And
why would Turkey, despite having the second largest
military in NATO, have any more success in Iraq than
the US superpower, even if its aims were only local,
they say.
Turkey has other levers, commercial and diplomatic,
with which it can try to shape events in Kirkuk and
northern Iraq.
Iraqi Kurds' trade routes and energy pipelines cross
Turkish territory. Turkish firms are also big
investors in Kurdistan region.
Reuters
The use of the term "Kurdistan" is vigorously
rejected due to its alleged political implications
by the Republic of Turkey, which does not recognize
the existence of a "Turkish Kurdistan"
Southeast Turkey. The Kurds have no rights in
Turkey.
Others estimate as many as 40 million Kurds live in
Big Kurdistan (Iraq, Turkey, Syria, Iran, Armenia),
which covers an area as big as France, about half of
all Kurds which estimate to 20 million live in
Turkey.
The Kurdish flag flown officially in Iraqi Kurdistan but
unofficially flown by Kurds in Armenia. The flag is
banned in Iran, Syria, and Turkey where flying it is
a criminal offence"
Southeastern Turkey:
North Kurdistan (
Kurdistan-Turkey) wikipedia
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