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Are You Ready? Here's The Plan?
29.1.2007
By Gerald A. Honigman, eKurd.net Contributing Writer |
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January 29, 2007
Saddam needed to be overthrown, for lots of reasons.
It’s better for Iraq and Iraq’s neighbors that he
and his genocidal crew are no longer running the
show.
It would also have been better if his hanging had
come after his trial for the massacre and gassing of
hundreds of thousands of Kurds. But it didn’t. And I
wouldn’t be too surprised if the enemies of the
Kurds--James Baker and the American State Department
included--had a hand in the timing to avoid
showcasing the plight of the Kurds at the hands of
their Arab buddies.
Think of it a Road Map for the Arabs 22nd state is
deemed a must, but none is still on the Foggy Folks
' agenda for tens of millions of victimized, truly
stateless Kurds.
Now, again, while Saddam’s departure is a plus, keep
in mind that the vast majority of those who have
lived in his region have never really known
indigenous democracy. The all-powerful father figure
and/or cruel tyrant has been the norm for leadership
for millennia. That, since the rise of Islam, they
have had to sometimes butt heads with a powerful
religious leadership, the ulema, seeking the same
control for itself under a religious guise has also
become a fact of life. |
Gerald A. Honigman is a Florida educator who has done extensive
doctoral studies in Middle Eastern Affairs. He has created and
conducted counter-Arab propaganda programs for college youth, has
lectured on numerous campuses and other platforms, and has publicly
debated many Arab spokesmen. His articles and op-eds have been
published in dozens of newspapers, magazines, academic journals and
websites all around the world. |
The Sunni-Shia conflict, now making headlines daily
as Arab proponents of the religion of peace continue
to blow each other apart, has existed for some
fourteen centuries, with G_d only knowing how many
millions have died in the name of that holy schism.
Often it pitted Arab against Arab, but not
infrequently political or ethnic differences masked
themselves in religious overtones such as a formerly
Sunni Arab-conquered Iran re-emerging as a powerful
Muslim, but Shia, Iranian state--the old conflict
for hegemony between Nebuchadnezer of Babylon and
Cyrus the Great of Iran reincarnated yet again.
Regardless of Americas good and not so good (a la
James Baker) intentions, the above are age-old
lessons that will outlive Americas presence and
intentions in Iraq. The American public is looking
for a way out of the mess sooner rather than later,
and while the United States cant just cut and run,
it must re-evaluate what is and what is not
achievable and worthy of American blood and
treasure. A very possible Democratic Party win in a
few years will surely hasten this and that win might
very likely occur due to the Iraqi quagmire.
As several of us have written before, Iraq is, at
minimum, the Yugoslavia of the Middle East--a
unified, artificial state that really never should
have been sired--created after the collapse of an
empire. It was pieced together with populations
historically at each others throats for yet others
interests in this case, those of Arab nationalism
and British petroleum politics. An Arab Iraq created
out of the Mandate of Mesopotamia for the Brits
Hashemite Arab nationalist friends needed the oil of
the Kurdish north, etc. and so forth.
Further complicating matters, while some of this
latter divide was submerged in the era when the Dar
ul-Islam was vigorously spreading (not that it has
really stopped) and non-Arab populations jumped on
its bandwagon (with the Kurdish leader, Salah
al-Din, for example, becoming the terror of
Christendom), in the modern age of nationalism,
those bloody divisions would re-emerge along side,
yet apart from, the Sunni-Shia problem.
Regardless of the Sunni-Shia mess, Arabs made it
clear from the get go that while Islam preached
equality among believers, some would be more equal
than others. The Mawali, non-Arab converts to Islam
rose up against the Arabism of the Damascus-based
Umayyad Caliphate over a thousand years ago for this
precise reason, and much of the support for the
latter’s overthrow by the Abbasids came from Iran’s
Khorasan province.
Back to here and now
While I truly wish it were otherwise and that all
groups could forget about their historical
grievances, in Iraq’s case--which is at least as bad
as that which existed between Serbs, Croats,
Muslims, Bosnians, Macedonians, etc. and so forth in
Yugoslavia (which the U.S. helped to
disintegrate)--the odds of this happening are
microscopic.
Since the overthrow of Iraqs own worse version of
Yugoslavias glue, Marshal Tito, all hell has broken
loose as it did in Yugoslavia. And as in the
aftermath of Titos death, Iraq’s current predicament
was not only predictable but expected by those with
any knowledge of the situation.
So, are you ready? Here’s the plan
It’s based on realities, not pipedreams.
Iran has been preparing to help set up its mirror
image to the West, the (Shia) Islamic Republic of
Iraq. The majority of Iraq’s population, Shia Arabs,
massacred and suppressed by their Sunni cousins, are
now biding their time, planning, and engaging in
counter strikes of their own. And with Iran’s
support.
Furthermore, when not butchering each other, the one
thing both stripes of Muslim Arabs can agree upon is
that, with few well-entrenched, historical
exceptions (a la Turks, Iranians, and possibly a few
others), this region is viewed as purely Arab
patrimony. That’s the Arab-Israeli conflict in a
nutshell. It's no accident that Arabs call the
Persian Gulf the Arabian Gulf.
But that also means that Muslim but non-Arab Kurds
(a la Anfal), Muslim but non-Arab black Africans (a
la the Sudan), Muslim but non-Arab Berbers, and so
forth are only fit to be ruled not rulers. And
forget about the dhimmi Jews, Copts, Assyrians,
Christian Lebanese (those not Syrian Arab stooges,
that is), and such.
Odds are that a full blown civil war will be coming
and it will almost certainly involve others beyond
Iraq’s borders. The prospect of a powerful Shia Iran
linking up with a Shia Iraq and a Shia
Hizbullah-contolled Lebanon is not very pleasant for
Sunnis in Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and
elsewhere.
The noble idea of a democratic, federated Iraq,
granting a large amount of autonomy to its disparate
groups, sounded reasonable enough. But it was and is
working against all that is written above.
If American attempts fail after the Presidents one
last modified push that is now being discussed, it
must plot a future that yields something beyond
simply giving birth to the Iranian mullahs twin to
the west.
America has provided scores of billions of dollars
in armaments and aid to assorted varieties of Arab
dictators including Saddam. It has long been said,
for example, that ex-Secretary of State James Baker
never met a megalomaniacal Arab despot that he
didn’t like. The same could be said for his Democrat
counterpart, "Apartheid Israel," ex-President Mr.
Peanut.
What is now really needed is a revolution in State
Department thought.
Since the above is unlikely, what needs to be
substituted is a President and his Defense
Department to once again take the lead. It's been
done before...
It is time for America to look to the people who,
besides the Jews, are its true best friends in that
important region some thirty million stateless
Kurds.
The latter, massacred by the hundreds of thousands
by Syrian and Iraqi Arabs over the last century
alone (with many others killed by Turks and Iranians
as well), stood by America and fought and died for
the overthrow of Saddam’s regime. This despite
having been abandoned by the United States
repeatedly in the past, with murderous consequences.
As America has supported numerous Arab despots over
the decades with billions of dollars in aid, it must
now support a people and cause truly deserving of
American generosity and political backing.
The one place where American values, democracy, and
so forth has best taken hold is in the Kurdish
north. Indeed, reports tell of Arabs--not including
the ones Saddam deliberately transplanted
there--fleeing to Kurdish lands to avoid being blown
up by their own brethren in the south.
The one place where American military bases will
probably be welcome in this strategic part of the
world (where they increasingly are not) is in Iraqi
Kurdistan...like the one America has at Incirlik in
Turkey.
This would accomplish a number of things.
First, under the right circumstances, it could help
calm the nerves of the Turks. The latter have their
own ideas about what to do upon the breakup of Iraq
or even sooner.
Ankara has long pouted over the loss of Mosul and
northern Iraq’s Kurdish oil wealth after the Brits
manipulated the League of Nations to tie it to its
Mesopotamian Mandate gift to its Arab allies in
1925...at the expense of earlier-promised Kurdish
independence.
American bases could help insure that the border
remains stable in both directions.
Hopefully, the leftist, militant Kurdish PKK could
be convinced, with an independent Kurdish state or
secure and highly autonomous Kurdish region as the
prize, to avoid problems with the Turks. American
forces and Kurdish Peshmerga would have to show
Ankara, however, what the alleged moderate Abbas
refuses to do for Israel that Kurds are willing to
use force even against their own people for the sake
of peace with their neighbors. This goes for dealing
with jihadist Islamist Kurds as well, notably those
associated with Ansar al-Islam.
While one fifth of Turkey’s population of about
seventy million is Kurdish and this population is
adjacent to Iraqi Kurdistan, it is obviously in the
Kurds overall best interests to assure their
powerful Turkish neighbors (whose armed forces are
already amassed on the border, set to pounce) that a
peaceful Kurdish state will not be a major headache
for them.
Keep in mind that an Israel that can fit almost
forty times into Turkey has a similar problem yet is
expected to see yet another hostile Arab state
(Arabs 22, Kurds 0 ) created in its very backyard.
One fifth of Israel’s six to seven million people
are Arabs. Why is this not "destabilizing," but mere
talk of the birth of an independent Kurdistan
constantly gets branded this way?
Stating the obvious, Kurds would help insure peace
with their neighbors since it would be their own
best guarantee for their sustained independence or
secured autonomy.
To add icing to the cake, the oil wealth of the
Mesopotamian north--lands historically Kurdish for
millennia before either Arabs or Turks ever arrived
there--could be shared with the Turks and the Arabs
to the south. For the latter, however, this should
only occur if the oil wealth of the Shia south is
also shared.
If, as is likely, Iraq splits apart, despite James
Bakers plans for his Saudi and other Sunni Arab
buddies, the Kurds must keep their own oil for their
own economic viability, and the Arabs will have to
come up with their own arrangements in the south
however that occurs.
If this means that Sunni Arabs in Iraq get no oil,
then so be it. They control most of the worlds oil
in other states that they rule in the region. And
what is Israel to say? Moses took the wrong turn in
the desert?
What law dictates that only Arabs or Iranians may
own the regions oil wealth especially since the oil
in Iraq’s north lies undoubtedly in historically
Kurdish lands?
Next
As it did with other nations (many or most of whom
show little appreciation), America must now
vigorously support economically, politically, and so
forth a people who have historically stood by
Americas side--often to their own detriment.
America must build up a powerful Kurdish military
complete with air and armored divisions again, the
way it has repeatedly done for Arabs, Iranians,
Turks, and others. This will send a message to our
valued allies, the Turks, and both Shia and Sunni
Arabs to the south to help insure all of their hands
off policy. Regarding the latter two, within Iraq
itself, neither stripe of Arab has anything good in
the long term planned for Kurds. And, again,
Americas own bases will also work to insure the
Kurds own good behaviour not that I really think
that this will be a problem.
Finally, the Kurds themselves have to get their own
act together. Too often petty differences have
divided them to all of their users' and abusers'
gain.
The games some Kurds now seem to be playing, for
example, with Iran are foolhardy. The latter has the
blood of tens of thousands of Kurds on its own hands
and has been friendly only when it can manipulate
Kurds to further its own interests. While America
and others have also shamefully so indulged, the
move is still an unwise one.
Kurdish leaders must put the future of their people
ahead of their own personal struggle to maintain
positions of affluence and influence in their own
semi-fiefdoms.
We are indeed at a potentially historic moment and
the Kurdish leadership must take heed of this most
carefully. Who knows when--or if--another potential
opportunity like this will arise?
Upon the break-up of the five century old Ottoman
Turkish Empire (which had also gained control of
much of Kurdistan) after World War I, the Kurds were
promised independence in the new nationalist age.
As we have already discussed, during that earlier
unique moment, the dreams of the Kurds were aborted
for others interests namely, those of Arabs and the
Brits.
Now, some eight decades later, another unique
opportunity may be unfolding with the probable
demise of the failed artificial state known as Iraq.
As they have shown themselves capable of doing
before, Kurdish leaders must now, once again, focus
on putting aside selfish interest and keeping their
eyes fixed on the big prize independence, or at
minimum secured autonomy, for at least some of their
thirty million stateless people.
Gerald A. Honigman is a Florida educator who has
done extensive doctoral studies in Middle Eastern
Affairs. He has created and conducted counter-Arab
propaganda programs for college youth, has lectured
on numerous campuses and other platforms, and has
publicly debated many Arab spokesmen. His articles
and op-eds have been published in dozens of
newspapers, magazines, academic journals and
websites all around the world.
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