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A New Middle East?
25.1.2007
By Imran Khan |
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January 25, 2007
Many recent acts of aggression have caused the
relations between Sunnis and Shiites in Iraq to
deteriorate. The most significant act was the
bombing of Al-Askari Mosque, one of the holiest
Shiite shrine, in Samara in February 2006. After
that incident a vicious cycle of revenge killings
started in the country. The last nail was hammered
by the Iraqi government when Saddam Hussein was
hanged. The manner of his execution has created more
rifts between Sunni and Shiites. In past Sunnis have
accused Shiite dominated Police and Army forces for
aiding with the Shiite militant groups responsible
for the killings of Sunnis. The most powerful Shiite
Militia is called Mehdi Army, controlled by radical
Shiite cleric Muqtada Al-Sadr. The Shiite guards who
hanged Saddam Hussein taunted him and shouted "Long
live Muqtada". It is a clear proof of their
affiliation with such a person, whose army is
involved in killings of innocent people, which no
one can deny easily. Now the gap is so wide that it
is leading towards a division of Iraq.
If Iraq is divided it will be partitioned into three
parts of Shiites, Sunnis and Kurds independent
territories. The short term affects would not suit
US interests in the region. Sunni area would
certainly become a hotbed for Insurgents, Al-Qaeda,
Jihadi and Militant movements against USA.
Shiite dominated government in Iraq is pro-American
but that does not reflect the mood of all Shiite
populations in Iraq. In fact Iran has a great
influence over Iraqi Shiites. Iran is considered as
the greatest enemy of USA, and Israel so things
would never be so smooth under Iranian influence.
Independent Kurd area would have its own affects for
the region. Kurd population is mainly spread in
Turkey, Iraq, Iran and Syria. With a population of
about 35 million people, Kurds make up the largest
ethnic group in the world who don't have a separate
country of their own. About 55% of Kurds live in
Turkey, 20 % each in Iraq and Iran and 5% in Syria.
Kurds have long desire to have their own independent
country called Kurdistan. A separate homeland for
Kurds in Iraq would also motivate uprising of Kurds
in other parts for a free sovereign country. Turkey
has a long history of troubles in Kurdish dominated
areas of Turkey . That would mean more problems for
Turkey. Turkey has strong bilateral relations with
USA and among the few Muslim countries who have
formal diplomatic relations with Israel. Turkey
would never like that to happen otherwise it will
certainly affect its relation with USA and West.
So apparently it looks that USA will try its best to
stop any partition of Iraq. But that's only one side
of the picture; there are other aspects of Iraqi
division also. The division of Iraq in the long term
could prove very useful for USA especially for
Israel.
The partitioning of Iraq will certainly bring more
enmity between Sunni and Shiite Muslims in all over
the Arab world. Iran is considered as leader of
Shiite Muslim countries and Saudi Arabia is
considered as leader of Sunni Muslim Countries in
the region. Both never had friendly relations. The
recent clips of Saddam Hussein execution have
created anger in Sunni Muslim countries and blame of
that was openly put on Shiite dominated government
of Iraq.
In last year's war between Hezbollah (A Shiite
militant group in Lebanon) and Israel, Saudi Arabia
and other Sunni Muslim Arab nations blamed Hezbollah
for provocation and starting of War while Iran and
Syria backed the Hezbollah movement by all means.
Survival of Israel is mainly due to the fact that
there are many differences in Arab countries which
prevented them to form an effective united-front
against Israel . Though every Arab state is against
Israel but remained more suspicious about each
others. So Israelis would like Sunni Shiite enmity
to continue because it has always helped them and
will certainly help them in the future also.
As Israel is considered to be the closest ally,
United States has always backed the actions which
resulted to favor Israel. So if the partition of
Iraq will suite Israel than it will never be put out
of the cards.
The other most significant long term affect would be
of Kurd independent movement in the region. Kurds
will never sit idle after getting a Independent
territory in Iraq. Their ultimate goal is to create
a sovereign county for all the Kurds in the region.
It would bring more troubles for Turkey, Iran and
Syria as the proposed Kurdistan could only become
reality when these countries will lose their
territories. USA would never mind such kind of
uprisings in Iran and Syria. Though Turkey is
considered a friend but Kurds are proving even
stronger alleys. In fact a free Kurdistan would
be the most pro-Western state after Israel in the
Middle East. Will Western powers mind the
creation of such a state?
One must also not forget that in recent past there
were calls of new Middle East from USA and Israel
and if Iraq divided there will be a new Middle East
. The change will bring some far-fetching
consequences for all the Arab world and Turkey and
it seems that those changes will not prove good for
any of those countries.
* Imran Khan holds a Master of Commerce degree
and is Assistant Director at the National Electric
Power Regulatory Authority
(NEPRA) in Islamabad, Pakistan. In addition to the
Global Politician, his articles are regularly
published by the Yemen Times
newspaper, the Morocco Times Newspaper, the Journal
of Turkish Weekly (published by the internationally
recognized think
tank International Strategic Research Organization -
ISRO), The EU Observer, Belgium and the Wzartv, an
Internet television
company based in the USA.
globalpolitician com
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