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Iraq expert Peter Galbraith to address
legislators
22.1.2007 |
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January 22, 2007
MONTPELIER — Vermonter, diplomat and Iraq
expert Peter Galbraith has unusually clear ideas
about what the United States should do about the
escalating problems in Iraq. But with a proposed
increase in the number of American troops serving
there, U.S. policy seems likely to be headed in the
opposite direction, he said.
At the Statehouse Tuesday afternoon, Galbraith, the
first ambassador to Croatia after the Kosovo war and
a diplomat in East Timor and the United Nations,
will describe what he sees as the likely — and
perhaps unavoidable — conclusion of an Iraq divided
into three parts.
Galbraith, 56, of Townshend, who investigated the
use of chemical weapons against the Kurds by Iraqi
forces, said he believes there likely were
stockpiles of such weapons in Iraq. Even if that
assumption had been correct, he said, the war still
would have been a poor prioritization of threats by
President Bush, because it was clear that Iraq did
not have nuclear weapons, Galbraith said. |
Former U.S. State
Department Official, Peter Galbraith |
"He, in essence, gave a pass to North Korea and
Iran," Galbraith said. "Right off the bat, the war
made us less secure."
Now the United States "needs a strategy in Iraq that
gets us out quickly," he said.
That strategy is to essentially let the
predominantly Kurdish, Shiite and Sunni portions of
Iraq go their separate ways, he said. The history of
the country, and even the new Iraqi Constitution,
tend to be headed in that direction, Galbraith said.
"This country has been a miserable failure from its
founding," he said. "The alternative to partition is
to try and hold the country together by force."
Both the southern section of Iraq, dominated by
Shiites, and the northern section, dominated by
Kurds, are comparatively stable and able to maintain
governments, Galbraith said.
American troops may be needed for some time in the
Sunni section of the country, predominantly north of
Baghdad, Galbraith said, but fewer troops than are
in the country now and probably fewer than 20,000
soldiers even at the start.
There now is less likelihood of Turkey stepping in
to block Kurdish independence from Iraq, given
changes in Turkey, Galbraith said.
"There are a number of people in Turkey, including
in the government and military, whose notions about
this are changing," he said. "We could be out of
most of Iraq in a matter of a few months."
Pulling out will not solve the civil war in Iraq,
however, Galbraith warned. But staying won't either,
he said. "If we withdraw, it will be terrible, and
if we stay, it will be terrible," he said.
For American interests, it is best to pull troops
from Iraq, Galbraith said. "I think there are two
great threats to our future as a country and as a
planet and they are the spread of nuclear weapons
and global climate change," Galbraith said.
Galbraith, the son of the late economist John
Kenneth Galbraith, is more than a talking head
making a stop in the Green Mountains. He has lived
in Vermont since childhood. His parents had a house
in Newfane, said Howard Coffin, a military historian
and longtime friend of Galbraith.
Galbraith is coming to the Statehouse at Coffin's
suggestion and at the invitation of Speaker of the
House Gaye Symington, D-Jericho.
"All of us have a responsibility to try and
understand why we are in this conflict and what
progress is being made, and ask questions of our
national leaders," Symington said. The state has
been affected by the war in direct or indirect ways,
she said.
"There are a lot of Vermonters who have served in
Iraq and Afghanistan," Symington said. "Those are
the Vermonters who are most directly affected, but
the families are very affected and their communities
are affected."
Galbraith said while states have a very limited role
in foreign policy, citizens should be aware of what
is happening in Iraq. "I think the voices of the
states can be extremely important" he said. "You
really need to get the entire country engaged."
Galbraith will address legislators at 4 p.m.
Tuesday.
rutlandherald com
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