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What if U.S. just pulled out of Iraq?
14.1.2007
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Conflict might erupt into more than just a civil
war between Iraqis
January 14, 2006
The situation in Iraq has deteriorated to the point
that no choice the president could make is an
obviously good one.
Our nation knows it. Recent polls show only a third
of Americans support the president on Iraq. The war
was one reason Republicans fared so poorly in the
Nov. 7 elections. Some Republicans in Congress now
are joining Democrats in criticizing his conduct of
the war.
Why not just pull out?
The president's stubbornness may be part of the
answer -- no leader likes to go down in history as a
loser. But that's not the most important reason
America can't just walk away from the chaos we
helped create.
If the United States pulled out with no progress
toward stabilizing Iraq, the war would not end. It
probably would become even more brutal and
widespread, with the potential for dire consequences
for the region and the world.
Study Group's grim forecast
Read this grim forecast from the recent report of
the Iraq Study Group, co-chaired by James Baker and
Lee Hamilton:"If the situation in Iraq continues to
deteriorate, the consequences could be severe for
Iraq, the United States, the region, and the world.
Continuing violence could lead toward greater chaos,
and inflict greater suffering upon the Iraqi
people.... Iraq's security forces could split along
sectarian lines. A humanitarian catastrophe could
follow as more refugees are forced to relocate
across the country and the region. Ethnic cleansing
could escalate. The Iraqi people could be subjected
to another strongman who flexes the political and
military muscle required to impose order amid
anarchy....
"Other countries in the region fear significant
violence crossing their borders. Chaos in Iraq could
lead those countries to intervene to protect their
own interests, thereby perhaps sparking a broader
regional war. Turkey could send troops into
Autonomous Kurdistan Region (northern Iraq) to
prevent Kurdistan from declaring independence. Iran
could send in troops to restore stability in
southern Iraq and perhaps gain control of oil
fields. The regional influence of Iran could rise at
a time when that country is on a path to producing
nuclear weapons.
"Ambassadors from neighboring countries told us that
they fear the distinct possibility of Sunni-Shia
clashes across the Islamic world. Many expressed a
fear of Shia insurrections -- perhaps fomented by
Iran -- in Sunni-ruled states. Such a broader
sectarian conflict could open a Pandora's box of
problems -- including the radicalization of
populations, mass movements of populations, and
regime changes -- that might take decades to play
out.
"If the instability in Iraq spreads to the other
Gulf States, a drop in oil production and exports
could lead to a sharp increase in the price of oil
and thus could harm the global economy.
"Terrorism could grow. As one Iraqi official told
us, `Al-Qaida is now a franchise in Iraq, like
McDonald's.' Left unchecked, al-Qaida in Iraq could
continue to incite violence between Sunnis and Shia.
A chaotic Iraq could provide a still stronger base
of operations for terrorists who seek to act
regionally or even globally.
Al-Qaida's aspirations
"Al-Qaida will portray any failure by the United
States in Iraq as a significant victory that will be
featured prominently as they recruit for their cause
in the region and around the world. Ayman al-Zawahiri,
deputy to Osama bin Laden, has declared Iraq a focus
for al-Qaida: they will seek to expel the Americans
and then spread `the jihad wave to the secular
countries neighboring Iraq.' A senior European
official told us that failure in Iraq could incite
terrorist attacks within his country," the report
said.
U.S. failure to stabilize Iraq after ousting Saddam
created a battleground for more than just rival
Iraqis vying for power in a civil war. Also involved
are the ambitions of neighboring nations, the clash
of ancient religious adversaries and the aspirations
of global terrorists.
When civil wars also involve larger interests, they
may erupt into larger conflagrations. The foreign
policy pragmatists on the Iraq Study Group foresaw
that possibility in Iraq.
Most of the public and many in Congress are dismayed
by the president's conduct of the war, and with good
reason. But they face this sobering reality: U.S.
presence can't automatically make things better, but
a swift U.S. pullout could make things much worse --
for Iraq, for the region and the world.
charlotte com
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