|
Iraqi Premier's New Security Plan Carries
Heavy Risks
11.1.2007
|
|
|
|
January 11, 2007
On January 6, Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki
announced a new plan to bring security to Baghdad
and wrest control of the capital from the armed
groups blamed for much of the sectarian violence.
Although details remain sketchy, the plan has been
attacked as being risky and likely to exacerbate
sectarian tensions.
In a speech marking the 86th anniversary of the
formation of the Iraqi Army, al-Maliki said the new
plan centers on the deployment of additional Iraqi
forces, including Kurdish fighters, into Baghdad, to
be supported by U.S.-led coalition troops. These
forces would then conduct
neighborhood-by-neighborhood sweeps to rid Baghdad
of extremist groups.
In addition, al-Maliki said the plan "will deny all
outlaws a safe haven, irrespective of their
sectarian or political affiliation," suggesting that
he may be ready to crack down on radical Shi'ite
cleric Muqtada al-Sadr's militia, the Imam Al-Mahdi
Army. |
Iraqi Prime minister Jawad Nuri al-Maliki
Photo:AP |
Sunni Arabs Denounce Plan
Sunni Arab leaders were quick to reject the plan,
describing it as "unconstitutional." Iraqi
parliament speaker Mahmud al-Mashhadani noted that
al-Maliki had never consulted with the Council of
Representatives over the plan, and therefore
deputies were not given an opportunity to vote on
it, Al-Sharqiyah television reported on January 7.
"The Iraqi Constitution does not allow the prime
minister to approve a security plan without
referring it to the Council of Representatives, now
that the Emergency Law -- which gave him
extraordinary executive powers -- has expired.
Consequently, this plan has no legal legitimacy,"
al-Mashhadani said.
Other Sunni politicians criticized the plan because
they said it focused mostly in the western, Sunni
part of Baghdad and left out Shi'ite Al-Sadr City in
the east, "Al-Zaman" reported on January 7. Sunni
leaders warned that this perceived lack of fairness
would worsen sectarian tensions.
Salih al-Mutlaq, the head of the Front for National
Dialogue, went so far as to describe the plan as the
Shi'ite-led government's latest effort to cleanse
Baghdad of Sunni Arabs, Al-Jazeera satellite
television reported on January 7.
"The new plan will fail in the same manner as the
previous security plans failed, but this time it
seems that there are attempts to purge the city of
Baghdad of certain segments of Iraqi society and
thus deepen the sectarian rift in Iraq," al-Mutlaq
said.
Controversial Kurdish Participation
There have been conflicting reports as to whether
several battalions of the Kurdish militia, the
peshmerga, would be sent to participate in the
Baghdad security operation. An official in the
Kurdish regional government, on condition of
anonymity, told "The New Anatolian" on January 9
that Kurdish forces would only be deployed under a
certain set of conditions.
"We will not deploy any peshmerga forces in Baghdad.
The peshmerga forces are a special force that will
only be used to protect the Kurdish region," the
official said. "However, we may send troops as part
of the Iraqi Army to be deployed in Baghdad only if
the Iraqi parliament officially makes such a request
and our Kurdish regional parliament approves it."
The issue of sending Kurdish forces into Baghdad is
controversial. Since the fall of the Hussein regime,
Kurdish forces have never been deployed in Baghdad
and several Kurdish officials have indicated that
this move would be dangerous and risk inflaming
ethnic divisions.
It could also draw the Kurds into the sectarian
conflict that has been almost exclusively between
the Shi'a and Sunni Arabs. Kurdish leaders have
voiced concern over the perception that Iraqi Kurds,
a majority of whom are Sunnis, would be fighting
against their Sunni Arab brothers.
Mahmud Uthman, a prominent leader in the Iraqi
Kurdish Coalition, has come out against sending
Kurdish forces to fight Arabs anywhere in Iraq, "Al-Zaman"
reported on January 8. "There are fears that a fight
like this, pitting Kurds against the Arabs, is bound
to add an ethnic touch to the conflict," he said.
"The deployment of Kurdish forces in Arab areas is
wrong and will create sensitivities and accusations
that the Kurds are killing the Arabs."
Al-Maliki's High Stakes
Prime Minister al-Maliki's initiative, despite its
seemingly noble intentions, carries great risks. The
plan for Iraqi forces to move from district to
district to drive out insurgents and militia
elements, will almost certainly result in
considerable casualties. If the operation is
perceived to be excessively heavy-handed, then al-Maliki
could face a severe backlash, not only from the
Sunni Arab population, but from his own Shi'ite
coalition as well.
A prolonged and bloody confrontation with al-Sadr's
Imam Al-Mahdi Army could also prove disastrous for
al-Maliki's leadership. Al-Maliki's political
position has been tenuous for months, and he has
been under tremendous pressure to reign in al-Sadr's
militia, which is widely blamed for being the one of
the main instigators of sectarian attacks. If the
Baghdad security operation goes poorly and
casualties mount, it may signal the end of al-Maliki's
tenure as prime minister.
In addition, if it appears that al-Sadr's militia is
being crushed by Iraqi forces backed by U.S.
firepower, it may force Iraq's Shi'ite religious
authority, Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, to
intervene and call for an end to the operation,
which would be highly embarrassing for al-Maliki.
Indeed, the last time Iraqi and U.S. forces
confronted al-Sadr's militia, in the holy city of
Al-Najaf in August 2004, it only ended when al-Sistani
brokered a truce.
While sectarian tensions have been running high
since the attack on the Al-Askari shrine in Samarra
in February 2006, the situation has been
particularly tense since the execution of former
President Saddam Hussein on December 30. The release
of the unauthorized video of the execution incensed
Sunni Arabs with what they saw as the exceptionally
undignified manner in which the government carried
out the hanging.
If Sunnis sense that their neighborhoods are being
disproportionately targeted in the security
operation, this will only exacerbate their distrust
of the government. The armed Sunni groups thought to
make up most of the insurgency would also be that
much less inclined to disarm and enter the political
process.
For this reason, U.S. Lieutenant General Raymond
Odierno urged a balanced approach to the operation,
which should target both Shi'ite militias and Sunni
extremists, "The Washington Post" reported on
January 7. Otherwise, al-Maliki's gamble on security
in Baghdad may prove to be his last at the head of
the Iraqi government.
rferl org
Top |
Kurd Net
does not take credit for and is not responsible for the content of news
information on this page
|
® 