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Brussels, September 21, -- A minority of around
one third of Europeans believes Turkey and Ukraine
will be members of the EU by 2020, a new German
study has revealed. But EU citizens believe that by
that time, the bloc will have a new treaty.
An opinion poll released on Wednesday (20 September)
by the Bertelsmann Foundation, a German think tank,
showed that 37 percent of those surveyed across the
EU believe Turkey will have joined the EU in 2020.
For Ukraine, which unlike Turkey has no official EU
membership perspective, this figure came in just a
bit lower, at 35 percent.
The poll, for which a total of 12,000 people were
queried in 13 EU member states, demonstrated that
most Europeans believe the union will be larger in
the future – but not necessarily with the Turks and
Ukrainians joining in.
Almost two thirds of respondents said they believe
the EU will have more than 27 member states by the
end of the second decade of this century –
suggesting that Europeans are more confident about
Western Balkan states acceding at some point.
The survey was conducted in nine "old" EU member
states - Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany,
Italy, the Netherlands, Spain and the UK – as well
as in four "new" states – Hungary, Lithuania, Poland
and Slovakia – revealing a clear east-west rift in
expectations.
New member states' citizens are significantly less
optimistic about future enlargement than the EU
average, with expectations on Turkish and Ukrainian
membership not exceeding 22 percent.
New EU citizens are also less positive than their
"old" neighbours about the prospect for a revival of
the EU constitution.
Only 29 percent of new member states' respondents
believe that the union will have a constitution by
2020, against 45 percent in Western Europe.
Surprisingly, the French and the Dutch, who rejected
the constitution in popular referendums last year,
showed above-average optimism, with clear majorities
of 57 percent and 50 percent respectively predicting
the passage of a constitutional text.
Across the EU, only a small minority (15%) believes
the bloc will continue to function with its current
institutional structure, with most people expecting
the existing EU treaties to be reformed in one way
or another by 2020.
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