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Iran and Turkey prepare for war in Iraqi
Kurdistan
25.9.2006 |
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DEBKAfile Exclusive Military Report
A new Middle East war is in the offing. DEBKAfile’s
exclusive military sources in Iraq and sources in
Iran reveal that Turkish and Iranian air units as
well as armored, paratroop, special operations and
artillery forces are poised for an imminent
coordinated invasion of the northern Iraqi
autonomous province of Kurdistan.
Our sources pinpoint the target of the combined
Iranian-Turkish offensive as the Quandil Mountains
(see picture), where some 5,000 Kurdish rebels from
Turkey and Iran, members of the PKK and PJAK
respectively, are holed up. Iranian and Turkish
assault troops are already deployed 7-8 km deep
inside Iraqi territory.
Turkey to the northwest and Iran to the east both
have Kurdish minorities which have been radicalized
by the emergence of Iraqi Kurdistan in the last
three years. The three contiguous Kurdish regions
form a strategic world hub.
A jittery Washington foresees a Kurdish-Iranian
military thrust quickly flaring into a comprehensive
conflict and igniting flames that would envelop the
whole of Iraqi Kurdistan as well as southern Turkey
and Armenia.
Tehran is quite capable of using the opening for its
expeditionary force to grab extensive parts of
Kurdistan and strike a strategic foothold in
northern Iraq.
Informed US officials would not be surprised if
Turkey took the chance of seizing northern Iraqi oil
fields centered on the oil-rich town of Kirkuk, the
source of 40 percent of Iraq’s oil output.
When he met US secretary of state Condoleezza Rice
in New York Thursday, Sept. 21, Turkish foreign
minister Abdullah Gul said: “When we talk about
Kirkuk, everybody supposes we want to bring the
Kurdish-Turkish issue to the foreground. However, we
instead see the uncertainty there as a general issue
of Iraq. We are concerned that instability and
turmoil in Kirkuk could cause more troubles in
Iraq.”
Referring to the recently appointed special US
coordinator Gen. Joseph Ralston, Gul expressed his
hope that a resolution would be imminent.
The threat was implicit and impatient. Washington
was given to infer that Ankara is on the point of
deciding whether or not to capture Kirkuk, a step
that would undermine a pivotal political and
economic base of the Baghdad government and harm US
interests in Iraq.
This conversation, which was not nearly as amicable
as it looked from the press photos, was clouded by a
disturbing incident: A semi-official American
military publication recently ran a new map showing
parts of Turkish and Armenian territory marked
“Kurdistan.”
This map fueled suspicions in Ankara and the
Armenian capital Yerevan that the US high military
command was in on a plan for Iraqi Kurdish forces
led by President Jalal Talabani and Masoud Barzani
to help themselves to territory in Turkey and
Armenia in a counter-attack to a potential
Turkish-Iranian military move in Kurdistan.
This kind of mistrust has lent wings to Ankara’s
resolve to go forward against Kurdistan - the sooner
the better.
To cool tempers and restrain the Turks, the US
ambassador to Turkey, Ross Wilson, stood up in
Ankara on Sept 19 and promised: “Northern Iraq won’t
serve as a PKK base in the future.” In a speech at a
meeting entitled "Agenda 2006," Wilson stated that
the map published in an unofficial U.S. military
magazine showing parts of Turkish and Armenian
territory under the domination of a republic called
"Kurdistan" doesn't reflect the official policy of
the US.
The ambassador added that the recently stepped-up
PKK violent attacks in Turkey “would not be
tolerated anymore.”
These words were hardly likely to allay Ankara’s
fears, since the ambassador addressed the PKK
problem in the future tense, while the Turkish
government is troubled by the present.
The approaching conflict, according to DEBKAfile’s
military sources, has an Israeli dimension. Since
July, Turkish leaders have been impressing on the
Bush administration that they have the right to
attack Kurdish rebels who mount terrorist attacks in
Turkey and take refuge across the border in Iraq’s
Quandil Mountains – no less than the Israelis, who
with US backing struck back at the Hizballah in
Lebanon for its cross-border attacks into northern
Israel.
Tehran is not bothering to justify its forthcoming
operation in Kurdistan. DEBKAfile’s sources in
Tehran report that Iran’s rulers are determined to
go in without further ado and crush the Kurdish
insurgents carrying out hit-and-run attacks in Iran
in recent months.
Vital American and Israeli regional security
interests in the Middle East are affected by three
additional aspects of the potential anti-Kurdish
flare-up.
1. Washington is not convinced by Ankara’s
protestations of the absence of Turkish-Iranian
military complicity. Turkey and Iran happen to find
themselves in the same boat at the same time as
targets of terrorists, say the Turks, and both have
no choice but to use force to stamp out the
violence. But for the Americans, the timing could
not be more unfortunate. A possible US (and Israeli)
plan to attack Iran’s nuclear installations at this
time would be seriously hampered by the closure of
Turkish and Kurdish air space to American and
Israeli warplanes heading for Iran.
The war plot thickened further this week.
Friday, Sept. 22, while Hizballah’s leader Hassan
Nasrallah harangued a million Lebanese spectators in
Beirut, Iran’s ambassador to Turkey, Firouz
Dolatabadi, spoke in Ankara in ominous tones. He
said: “Iran, Turkey and Iraq are key points in the
world’s geopolitics. Whoever dominates this region
can control the whole world.”
Regarding relations between Iran and Turkey,
ambassador Dolatabadi said: “History has it that
whenever Iran and the Ottoman Emperor had good
relations, we would witness good developments in the
region.”
Good for whom? asked worried officials in
Washington.
2. An Iranian-Turkish victory in a Kurdish campaign
would award Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps its
second victory in less than two months. The RG
officers who commanded Hizballah forces in the
Lebanon war of July and August claim full credit for
its gains. They thwarted a key objective of the
Israeli assault which was to cut Iran’s assets down
to size in Lebanon and the western Middle East at
large, and have left Iran’s military grip on the
region firmer than ever.
3. Israel is concerned lest military action against
Turkish PKK rebels uproot its military and economic
presence in Iraqi Kurdistan. DEBKAfile’s military
sources report that since 2004 Israeli military
instructors and intelligence officer have been
helping the Kurds build up their peshmerga army and
anti-terrorist forces.
Iran and Turkey are convinced that Israel also
maintains in north Iraqi Kurdistan observation and
early warning posts to forewarn the Jewish state of
a coming Iranian attack. If this is so, the two
invaders will make a point of destroying such posts.
Israel would then forfeit a key intelligence
facility against the Islamic Republic.
Regarding Israel’s oft-reported, never
officially-admitted, connection with Kurdistan, the
BBC’s Newsnight program of Sept 20 claimed to have
obtained the first pictures of Kurdish soldiers
trained by Israelis in N. Iraq, as well as an
interview with an unnamed former trainer.
DEBKAfile’s sources conjecture that the photos were
leaked by two sources:
One, Turkish officials concerned to drum up a
justifiable “context” for their coming offensive by
smearing the Talabani-Barzani leadership as disloyal
to Baghdad.
The Kurdish authorities have denied allowing any
Israelis into northern Iraq. The purported Israeli
trainer told the BBC interviewer that his team was
told they would be disowned if discovered.
Two, Turkish or European elements who are anxious to
abort an American or Israeli attack on Iran’s
nuclear industry by exposing Kurdish installations
that might serve to expand Israel’s strategic
options against Iran. The BBC producers suggested
that refueling stops at the Irbil (Hawler) airport
in Kurdistan would help the Israel air force
overcome the problem of distance to an air strike
against Iran.
The British program quoted the trainer as describing
the courses given to Kurdish airport security people
and army as diverse special operations forces’
anti-terrorism tactics and weapons. DEBKAfile adds
that before Abu Musab al Zarqawi was taken out by
American forces, his men sought high and low for
Israeli instructors to abduct as hostages, but never
found them.
The Bush administration recently appointed former
NATO commander Gen. Joseph Ralston as special US
coordinator in Ankara for the PKK issue in the hope
of de-escalating the crisis caused by PKK attacks
and delaying Ankara’s war operation against Iraqi
Kurdistan. In the second week of September, he held
a round of conferences with Turkish political and
military leaders. His essential argument was that
military action is the last option. But he made
little headway. Many Turkish officials found the
Ralston initiative too late to hold back the
inevitable clash for a number of reasons.
They believe the delay he urged would play into the
hands of the Kurdish rebels and give them time to
consolidate their preparations to fight off an
offensive.
Turkish intelligence reports that Talabani and
Barzani are less busy with Iraqi affairs than with
transferring large quantities of anti-tank and
anti-air rockets to the anti-Turkish PKK and the
anti-Iranian PJAK in their hideouts.
Ankara is keen, furthermore, to get in its blow
against Kurdistan before an American action against
Iran. The Turks buy Russian and Iranian intelligence
evaluations according which the US attack may take
place at any time between the last week of September
and the end of December, 2006. So they feel the
ground is burning under their feet.
Iran, for its part, is waiting for Turkey to make
the first move in Iraqi Kurdistan. Its troops will
go into action only after the first Turkish soldier
and tank are on the move.
debka com
The use of the term "Kurdistan" is vigorously
rejected due to its alleged political implications
by the Republic of Turkey, which does not recognize
the existence of a "Turkish Kurdistan".
Others estimate as many as 40 million Kurds live in
Big Kurdistan (Iraq, Turkey, Syria, Iran, Armenia),
which covers an area as big as France, about half of
all Kurds which estimate to 20 million live in
Turkey
The Kurdish flag flown officially in Iraqi Kurdistan but
unofficially flown by Kurds in Armenia. The flag is
banned in Iran, Syria, and Turkey where flying it is
a criminal offence"
Southeastern Turkey:
North Kurdistan (
Kurdistan-Turkey) wikipedia
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