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Burdensome weight of unity could force
Iraq break-up
21.9.2006 |
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WASHINGTON — Bush
administration officials continue to deny that a
civil war threatens to rip Iraq apart, but some U.S.
observers say the country is already headed for a
three-state solution and the United States can do
little about it.
Last week, Abdel Aziz Hakim, a prominent leader of
the largest Shiite political party in the country,
the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution (SCIRI),
called for a separate Shiite region in southern
Iraq, one similar to that of Kurdistan in the north.
But soon after, a proposal in the Iraqi parliament
to split the country into three autonomous
federations was thwarted due to pressure from
pro-unity groups. The federalist model is still
supported by the United Iraqi Alliance, the largest
Shiite bloc in the parliament.
Meanwhile, Kurdistan has been branded "The Other
Iraq," in a recent advertising campaign in the
United States created by a public relations firm,
Russo, Marsh and Rogers, which was hired by the
Kurdish government.
Kurdistan already had its own government and
military before the Iraq war, and largely avoids the
bloodshed to its south. Full Kurdish independence
from Iraq has long been sought, but it is unclear if
or when that will ever happen.
One private analyst said some sort of division seems
inevitable.
"The partitioning is already in progress in Iraq —
no matter what anybody says," said Tony Sullivan,
director of Near East Support Services, a defense
consulting firm based in Ann Arbor, Mich. "What is
happening in Iraq, I think, is a movement into
either orbit — and one may be related to both — of
civil war or partitioning."
Violence Threatening Unity
Others say a break-up of Iraq is happening at two
levels. Increased sectarian violence has displaced
tens of thousands of Iraqis to the sanctuaries of
their own ethnic and religious communities.
Elsewhere, politically strong Shiite forces like
Hakim and SCIRI look at Kurdistan's successful
self-rule and see economic and political advantages
to forming their own state.
"It is telling that one of the first items up for
debate [in the new government] is how to give even
greater power for the regional and local
governments," said Brian Katulis, public diplomacy
expert at the Center for American Progress. "This
should come as no surprise to anyone."
He pointed to the Iraqi constitution, passed in
October 2005, which calls for a federalist model of
government but left open for debate the details on
how it would work and how autonomous the regional
governments would be.
That debate is clearly hot. Parliamentary factions
representing the Sunnis — who are a minority in Iraq
and stand to lose in a break-up because their land
in the west has none of the oil resources of the
Shiite south — joined secular representatives and
those loyal to radical Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr
in threatening to walk out if the parliament took up
the most recent proposal to codify the separate
states.
"Federalism is a preliminary step to dividing and
separating Iraq," said Adnan al-Dulaimi, head of the
Iraqi Accordance Front, the largest Sunni bloc in
the parliament. "I call on Iraqis to confront this
draft."
But Michael Rubin, a Middle East expert at the
American Enterprise Institute who served as a
consultant for the U.S.-led transitional government
after the 2003 invasion of Iraq, said a federalist
system with powerful regional forces may be
inevitable.
"One of the big ironies in Iraq is everyone says
they want a strongman," via a strong, centralized
government, Rubin said. "But in reality, they want a
weak central government as possible, and it's going
to be a country of regional strongmen."
But how strong, and autonomous, and whether the
power will be shared among all groups, is the
million dollar question, he said.
"We should be encouraging them to define the role of
the federalist government," and in the fairest way
possible, Rubin said, "and so far we are dropping
the ball."
U.S and Iraq's Neighbors Wary of Partitioning
The Bush administration, however, is not talking
about anything but a strong, national government in
Iraq. Though the federalist issue was left open in
the constitution, any course that leaves Baghdad
weak is not supported by the United States, said
National Security Council spokesman Frederick Jones.
"We don't believe that is the correct course for
Iraq," he said of a three-state solution. "The Iraqi
people expressed their desire for a unity
government, overwhelming numbers of them came out to
vote. ... We believe that is the course that (Prime
Minister Nouri) al-Maliki is pursuing and we support
[Iraqis] in their efforts."
Experts say Kurdistan's self-rule makes those
efforts more difficult. Kurds were particularly
brutalized by Saddam Hussein, especially in the late
1980s when he gassed to death 180,000 of them. The
Kurds have been governing themselves since the end
of the Persian Gulf War and strong sentiment within
the region supports breaking off from Iraq entirely.
However, the promise of a federalist system in the
constitution and the threat of Iraq's neighbors have
so far kept that sentiment in check, said Dave
Hartwell, Middle East editor with Jane's Information
Group, an international security and intelligence
consulting firm.
"The Kurds are probably aware of how far they have
come and how far they can push it and are unlikely
to see much mileage, at least for the time being, in
a policy that deliberately sets out to antagonize
virtually every country in the region, not to
mention the U.S.," he said.
Ethnic Kurds in neighboring Turkey have a tense
relationship with the Turkish government, which sees
the growing autonomy of Kurdistan in Iraq a direct
threat to keeping a lid on those tensions within
their territory, where a separatist movement has led
to ongoing violence in the Southeast of that
country. Iran, too, sees
Kurdistan as a bad example for its own
disenfranchised people, say some experts.
"If there is a self-announced, independent,
flourishing Kurdistan, the geo-strategic dynamic
will be for the Kurds in other countries to seek and
break off and join it," said Sullivan. "That is the
ultimate Kurdish dream."
He said this would not "only have the effect of
disintegrating Iraq," but will put the rest of the
Middle East on alert.
At the same time, some analysts accuse Iran of using
its influence with the ruling Shiite party in Iraq
to push a three-state solution, and say the Bush
administration's hopes for a unity government is
shrinking as the Iranians gain influence in southern
Iraq.
"The Iranians clearly have their intentions," said
Reva Bhalla, a geo-political analyst for Strategic
Forecasting Inc. (STRATFOR), a private defense
intelligence firm.
While a partitioning of Iraq along religious and
ethnic lines may ease the sectarian strife there,
say some U.S. lawmakers like Sen. Joseph Biden,
D-Del., Alex Vatanka, security editor for Jane's
Information Group, warned that such a break-up right
now could have grave consequences.
"It doesn't necessarily mean the end to the
violence," he said, noting that Baghdad, the
nation's capital, is home to Sunnis and Shiites and
neither group is going to want to leave.
"Given the animosity between the Shia and the Sunni,
it would be best to hope for a strong leader or a
strong central government in Baghdad and let the
people decide for themselves for the long term, what
model of government is best for them."
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