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Federal Iraq: devolution or dissolution?
19.9.2006
By Dominic Moran |
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Negotiations continue on a controversial bill
that would section Iraq into at least three
autonomous regions based on ethno-religious
divisions. Should the law pass it may lead to
political fragmentation.
Iraq's predominant Kurdish and Shi'ite political
blocs look set to push through a controversial law
this week that would open the way for combining two
or more provinces into a "region." (R)
Enshrined in Iraq's newly minted constitution, moves
towards federalism are a political recognition of
facts on the ground with Shi'ite militias active in
the south, undermanned US and government forces
struggling for control in the Sunni Triangle, and
Kurdish movements in effective control of three
provinces in the north since 1991.
Nevertheless, the political recognition of areas of
ethno-religious predominance and control has
potentially profound consequences for the future of
the newly created central government and the future
of Iraq as a unified state.
Federalism
Iraqi politicians plan to meet on Monday in a bid to
end the deadlock over the introduction of the
regional federation bill. Last week's legislative
discussion of the law was postponed due to a boycott
from two major Sunni Arab political groupings and
some Shi'ite elements.
The leader of the Shi'ite Supreme Council for the
Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SRIRI) Abdul Aziz
al-Hakim, who also heads Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's
United Iraqi Alliance (UIA), is sponsoring the bill
and championing the establishment of a unified
Shi'ite state in the south.
Regional legislatures would likely be created if the
law is passed, assuming significant power over
security and resource allocation.
Kurdish parties have already begun the process of
devolution, establishing a new government in the
northern town of Irbil. This parliament, the Kurdish
Regional Government (KRG), has angered many Sunni
Arab politicians by ordering the Iraqi flag to be
replaced by the Kurdish ensign on all government
buildings in the three provinces it controls.
The second-largest Sunni Arab political bloc, the
National Dialogue Front (NDF) released a statement
Sunday saying it, "totally rejects all kinds of
partitioning schemes such as [the] federal regions
project and the changing of the Iraqi flag."
Sunni Arab parties won an amendment to the draft
constitution requiring parliament to quickly
reconsider federal moves affecting their community,
and to define how regional federations are to be
formed. As of yet, neither has taken place.
Some political elements within the UIA, including
followers of influential cleric and al-Hakim rival
Moqtada al-Sadr, fear that SCIRI is moving too fast
on the issue.
Kurdish and Shi'ite political blocs enjoy an
overwhelming majority in the house but are keen to
avoid forcing mainstream Sunni Arab parties to leave
the fragile national unity government by pushing too
strongly on federation.
When asked by ISN Security Watch about the
implications of federalism, Professor Gerald
Steinberg from Jerusalem's Begin-Sadat Center for
Strategic Studies said, "The biggest issue is that
of stability," whether a move to federalism "would
be a format for constant conflict, or increase or
decease the conflict compared to trying to create a
unitary Iraq."
"It is going to be extremely difficult to maintain
the cohesion, even between the three elements,"
Steinberg said. He added that it would be very
difficult to control a "quasi-federal system at the
moment. The legislation might pass but the
implementation is still going to be a long shot."
Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) representative Alex
Atroushi told ISN Security Watch that the
establishment of a federal state "is necessary
because it will stop the violence in Iraq, it will
divide the resource control […] We are not
interested in dividing Iraq, only the resources we
have in our country," he said.
Minorities
If moves towards a federal state lead to an
effective devolution of power to regional
legislatures, minority groups will likely be the big
losers over time as predominant ethnic and religious
groups seek to shape public life in their regions by
using their cultural and religious traditions.
This is likely to lead to a deepening of
ethno-religious tensions and an increase in both
emigration and a wave of internal migration that has
seen close to 300,000 Iraqis flee violence in mixed
areas this year.
Areas where communities live side by side are likely
to become the front line in struggles for control,
causing an escalation in inter-communal violence
particularly where access to oil fields and
infrastructure are at stake.
In a portent of things to come, at least 24 died in
the ethnically mixed city of Kirkuk on Sunday in six
bombings. The deadliest blast targeted a courthouse
adjacent to the headquarters of the Patriotic Union
of Kurdistan (PUK) and KDP, which strongly favor
moves towards a federal political structure.
Kirkuk, situated 290km north of Baghdad, lies in the
center of Iraq's rich northern oil fields and has
suffered from ongoing sectarian violence since the
2003 US invasion. With a mixed Turkoman, Kurdish and
Sunni Arab population, the city is likely to be a
flashpoint for further inter-communal violence.
The status of the region's oil fields is also likely
to embitter future relations between Kurdish and
Sunni Arab federal entities.
"The Kurdish want the Kirkuk question to be solved"
Atroushi said, adding that he hoped this would occur
through dialogue in the next few weeks.
According to Atroushi the Kirkuk issue is
inextricably tied to the chemical weapons attack on
the town of Halabja in March 1988; the Al-Anfal
military campaign in which an estimated 182,000
Kurds died; and the 1974 decision to leave Kirkuk
outside the officially designated Kurdish region:
"It [Kirkuk] is important to the whole Kurdish
people, not just the KDP, because Halabja and Al-Anfal
[...] happened because we didn't accept the
agreement that was signed in 1974." The Kurdish
people suffered these atrocities "because of Kirkuk,"
he claimed, which is part "of Kurdistan Iraq."
Toward Kurdistan
The creation of a quasi-independent Kurdistan in
northern Iraq is of serious concern to Turkey –
which sent troops into Iraq in 1995, and briefly in
July this year, to flush out Kurdistan Workers Party
(PKK) fighters. The issue is also of concern to
Syria and Iran given that Kurdish movements have at
various times claimed regions in each as integral
territories of a future Kurdistan.
The KDP and PUK put aside their long-term rivalry in
agreeing to a unity government in the KRG. The
political marriage unites the three provinces under
complete KRG control and strengthens a push for the
Kirkuk, Diyala and Ninawa provinces to be
incorporated in a greatly enlarged Kurdish region.
Kurdish parties have been careful not to rile the
US, which established the autonomous Kurdish zone in
northern Iraq in 1991, affirming their commitment to
a federal Iraq while muting calls for independence
and for territorial concessions from neighboring
states.
Asked if the KDP was satisfied with autonomy or
would push for full independence Atroushi said,
"This is the debate, this is the actual problem that
we have now. We will leave it for the next
generation."
Iran's influence grows
Iran won significant influence over southern Iraq
through the 2003 US-led invasion and the subsequent
victory of Shi'ite political forces in the January
and December 2005 parliamentary elections.
Shi'ite religious and political leaders sought
refuge in Iran from repeated crackdowns on their
community under Saddam Hussein and are believed to
retain the contacts formed with Iranian officials in
this period to varying degrees.
The New York Times reported on 14 September that al-Maliki's
national security adviser, Mowaffak al-Rubaie, was
close to some Iranian officials, while SRIRI had
acknowledged receiving significant funding from
Iran.
The creation of a Shi'ite regional entity in control
of the Basra oil export facilities – which are
currently being fought over by local Shi'ite
powerbrokers and their militias – would greatly
extend Iranian influence.
Quiet during the first years of the US-led
occupation, the Basra region has ignited in violence
with occupying British forces losing the confidence
of local leaders amidst an ongoing security and
governance vacuum.
"Iran now has a direct entry into southern Iraq. We
have a more powerful Iranian state which also
controls the Basra Shi'ites, [the] southern Iraqi
region," Steinberg said.
Elsewhere, Iraqi government forces engaged Shi'ite
militias in the city of Diwaniya south of Baghdad on
28 August. Thirteen soldiers were executed by
Shi'ite fighters after running out of ammunition and
clashes continued in the city this week. Al-Sadr's
Mahdi Army militia, which launched two uprisings in
Najaf in 2004, was reportedly involved in the
fighting.
Al-Sadr pledged support for Iran in January. "If
neighboring Islamic countries, including Iran,
become the target of attacks, we will support them,"
he said in comments carried by the Associated Press.
"The Mahdi Army is beyond the Iraqi army. It was
established to defend Islam."
Asked about US claims that Iranian agents were
active in southern Iraq, Steinberg said that there
was no firm confirmation "how deep that involvement
is. But I think one can see that there is a
connection in terms of the violence. Whether it is
through the Iranian state or some of the
Revolutionary Guard elements is not entirely clear."
Given divisions within the Iranian government
hierarchy over relations with the new Iraqi
government and residual bitterness in Iraq
concerning the Iraq-Iran war, in which an estimated
half a million Iraqis died, it is important not to
overstate the role of the Islamic Republic in
domestic Iraqi politics.
Nonetheless, Iranian influence has increased
exponentially and is likely to continue to do so
under the mooted federal system to the detriment of
US interests.
Insurgent strife endangers structure
Recurrent waves of sectarian violence have left Iraq
on the verge of a full-scale civil war and are
likely to continue beyond the withdrawal of foreign
troops. Combined with insurgent attacks,
sectarianism threatens to sweep away both the
current central government and the mooted federal
structure.
At least 130 bodies of victims of insurgent attacks
and sectarian murders were found in Baghdad on
Wednesday and Thursday amid a sharp rise in
sectarian murders. Over 1,500 were killed in the
capital in August despite the presence of thousands
of government and US troops engaged in Operation
Together Forward, launched on 15 June.
Inter-communal and criminal violence has dipped
significantly in areas of the city in which US and
government forces have been concentrated but
sectarian death squads appear to be biding their
time and shifting their focus to other neighborhoods
as they wait for the troops to move on.
Elsewhere, US military leaders denied reports last
week that they had given up efforts to gain control
in insurgent-dominated Anbar province. Thousands of
US troops have reportedly been transferred from
Anbar to Baghdad since June.
Confirming reports of thinly-spread US troop
deployments, a former US Marine officer who was
responsible for training Iraqi units said in an
op-ed piece published 15 September in the
International Herald Tribune, "Time and again I
watched as American forces drew down, and militias
blossomed in the resulting power vacuum."
Steinberg said that he did not think the Bush
administration was considering troop withdrawal from
Iraq in the near future. "On the contrary they are
continuing to increase the troops' size," he said.
Efforts to hand over security to the Iraqi army
appeared to pick up speed recently with the transfer
of a peaceful southern province and President Jalal
Talabani announcing that Iraqi forces would assume
security control throughout the country by the end
of the year.
However, recent reports of desertions and the
refusal of ethnic and religious-based units to
condone their transfer to regions dominated by other
sectarian or ethnic communities have raised serious
questions concerning the army's operational
capacity.
"The Iraqi army is not really much of an army,"
Steinberg said. "There is no improvement in the
current level of violence, [or] the ability to
control insurgent areas."
Given the looming specter of civil war, it may
already be too late.
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