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Iraq: Ever closer to fears of civil war 18.8.2006
By Mohammed A. Salih
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Erbil,
Kurdistan-Iraq, August, 18, -- Hanan's family could
never have thought three years ago of leaving
Baghdad. They had lived for years in peace with
their Shia neighbours in the ethnically mixed Shaab
district. All that changed the morning they saw a
letter in their courtyard giving them three days to
leave.
Hanan left for Erbil with her five children 10 days
ago. Erbil is in Kurdistan, where peace prevails,
unlike the rest of Iraq.
"It is very dangerous over there in Baghdad," Hanan,
40, told IPS. "It is a war of streets between Shias
and Sunnis there. Nobody can feel safe."
In Salahaddin town now, 29km east of Erbil, she
feels safe. They live in the house of a Kurdish
friend, since they cannot afford to pay rent, and no
one in the family has a job.
Her husband has not joined the family. Hanan says he
cannot drive his taxi from Baghdad to Erbil because
his identity card shows he is Sunni, and the road is
too dangerous for Sunnis.
Her 20-year-old daughter Nariman quit school and
cannot go back even to receive her exam results. "I
don't feel safe returning to Baghdad any more. I
want to stay here in Erbil."
Hundreds of thousands of other families have had to
deal with a similar situation in the ethnically
mixed cities of central Iraq where Shia militias and
Sunni armed men are at war with one another.
Like Hanan, many hit by the violence seek refuge in
the northern Kurdistan region. According to official
figures provided by humanitarian organisations and
the Kurdistan regional government, around 6,000
families have moved from volatile regions of Iraq to
the three provinces of the Kurdish region between
2004 and this month.
The sectarian strife escalated after the blasts in
the Shia holy shrines of Samarra, 125km north of
Baghdad, in February this year. Shias have blamed
Sunnis for the attack.
The killings continue, mostly between Sunni and Shia.
Iraqis officials say 3,438 civilians lost their
lives in violent incidents in July, an average of
110 killings a day.
Many fear it could get much worse if Iraq falls into
full-scale civil war. People fear that such violence
could expand to other regions and drag in other
ethnic and sectarian groups.
"The fighting can engulf five regions which have
mixed ethnic and sectarian populations," Farid
Assasad, head of the Kurdistan Strategic Studies
Centre in Sulaimaniyah in Kurdistan region told IPS.
Those areas, he said, include Baghdad, Kirkuk,
Diyala province, Salahaddin province and parts of
Anbar province.
Each of these areas has its own kind of mix. Kirkuk
is located 250km north of Baghdad, and has a mixed
population of Kurds, Turkomans and Arabs. Diyala
province is 50km northeast of Baghdad, and home to
mixed Sunni Arab, Shia Arab and Kurdish populations.
Salahaddin, 140km northwest of Baghdad, has a
population of Sunni Arab, Shia Arab, Kurdish and
Turkoman communities. Anbar province, 100km west of
Baghdad, has a mix of Sunni and Shia populations.
"Iraq is not yet in a state of civil war," Assasad
said. "But if the current tensions are not
curtailed, they can lead to a destructive civil
war."
The current turmoil is not something new in Iraq's
history, he said. "It is rather a historical
extension of some past hostilities that have existed
among Shias and Sunnis of Iraq ever since the death
of Shia-revered Imam Ali, 1400 years ago."
The schism between Shia and Sunni branches of Islam
emerged over a successor to Prophet Muhammad
following his death in 632AD. Shias believe Imam Ali
was recommended by the Prophet to replace him, a
belief Sunnis do not share.
Assasad is optimistic that there are still "hopes
and ways" to prevent the much-predicted civil war.
"The fact that none of the Shias and Sunnis can
achieve a decisive and final victory over the other
side can lessen the likelihood of a civil war," he
said.
"Besides, a tactical solution at this stage is the
creation of separate regions for each of the three
major communities of Shias, Sunnis and Kurds within
a federal structure that puts each sect in charge of
its own security and governance."
A. Ahmed, 45 (he did not want to give his full
name), a Sunni Arab university professor, who has
witnessed the violence closely, says civil war is
here already.
"I left my house because of the civil war," said
Ahmed who now teaches science at Koya University,
79km east of Erbil. "The only difference between the
current situation and a real full-blown civil war is
that heavy weaponry is not being used."
IPS
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