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LONDON, August 3,
(Reuters)
Iraq is more likely to slide into civil war than
turn into a democracy, Britain's outgoing ambassador
to Baghdad wrote in a leaked diplomatic cable, the
BBC public broadcaster reported on Thursday.
William Patey's final cable from Baghdad gives a far
more pessimistic assessment for prospects in Iraq
than Britain has disclosed in public. It warns of
the prospect of Shi'ite militia forming a "state
within a state," like Hizbollah in Lebanon.
"The prospect of a low intensity civil war and a de
facto division of Iraq is probably more likely at
this stage than a successful and substantial
transition to a stable democracy," he wrote,
according to excerpts quoted by the public
broadcaster.
"Even the lowered expectation of President (George
W.) Bush for Iraq -- a government that can sustain
itself, defend itself and govern itself and is an
ally in the war on terror -- must remain in doubt,"
said the cable, sent to British Prime Minister Tony
Blair.
Describing the main Shi'ite militia, he wrote: "If
we are to avoid a descent into civil war and anarchy
then preventing the (Mehdi Army) from developing
into a state within a state, as Hizbollah has done
in Lebanon, will be a priority."
Patey did, however, also say that the situation in
Iraq "is not hopeless."
The Foreign Office said it does not comment on
leaked documents.
"Every day the capacity of the Iraqi security forces
to manage their own security is growing," a
spokeswoman said.
The view expressed in Patey's cable reflects
pessimism that has settled among senior Iraqi
officials as violence has increased in the three
months since a new "unity" government took power.
A senior Iraqi government official told Reuters last
month that "Iraq as a political project is
finished," with the capital split into Sunni and
Shi'ite districts and officials working to divide
control of the country on ethnic and sectarian
lines.
Reuters
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