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Kirkuk Caught In Struggle
12.6.2006
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Washington, D.C., 12 June 2006, The city of
Kirkuk is the center of Iraq's northern oil fields
(Kurdistan) and, because of that, factions are vying
for control of it. The struggle could turn violent
before a political solution is reached.
There is a traffic circle in Kirkuk that features a
sculpture with three huge swords encircling an oil
well. The sculpture, ironically, serves as a symbol
of Kirkuk's economic importance to Iraq and how the
three factions in the city - - Kurds, Turkmen and
Arabs - - may come to blows over who will control
it.
By many estimates, Kirkuk may sit atop as much as 10
billion barrels of oil. That wealth makes Kirkuk a
prize worth fighting for, even though the new Iraqi
constitution says the central government in Baghdad
controls the oil. Some observers warn that an
outbreak of widespread factional violence in Kirkuk
could ignite a national civil war.
An Oil-Rich Powderkeg
Joost Hiltermann, with the non-governmental
International Crisis Group in Amman, Jordan, says
the city is a potential powderkeg. "There have long
been political tensions in Kirkuk, with upticks in
violence. The situation is very tense. And everybody
is waiting, really, for the next step in the
political process which may determine the status of
Kirkuk, which is really at the heart of the whole
issue," says Hiltermann.
The Kurds, who make up roughly 20 percent of Iraq's
population but are a majority in much of the north,
claim Kirkuk as theirs and want it governed by the
Kurdistan Regional Government that already
administers three other northern provinces.
Turkish Support for Turkmen
On the other side are the Arabs, whose numbers
swelled considerably during Saddam Hussein's rule
but have shrunk since the end of the Iraq War. There
are also Turkmen, who say Kirkuk is theirs by
ancestry.
Jeffrey White, with the Washington Institute for
Near East Policy, says the Turkmen have cross-border
support that could be a key factor in the struggle
for Kirkuk."They [i.e., Turkmen] are a historic
people of the area and they're watching themselves
being marginalized. The Turks express interest and
concern and support for the Turkmen population, and
that's an important card for them [i.e., the
Turkmen] to be able to play. The Kurds are always
looking over their shoulders to see how the Turkish
government is going to react to whatever they do,"
says White.
Nora Bensahel, an analyst with the RAND Corporation
in Washington, says that despite Ankara's support
for the Turkmen, the Kurds see their future and
Kirkuk as inseparable. "The oil revenues from Kirkuk
are the main source of income in the north. So if
Kurdish politicians want to promote an independent
Kurdistan or even a region within a unified Iraq,
they need some resources of their own. And that's
why control over Kirkuk is so important
strategically for the Kurdish leaders," says
Bensahel.
A Kurdish "Jeruzalem"
Iraqi (l) and Kurdish flags
But Peter Galbraith at the Center for Arms Control
and Non-Proliferation in Washington, who has
extensive experience with the Kurdistan Regional
Government, disagrees with the contention that the
Kurds seek control of Kirkuk solely for economic
reasons. "Kirkuk is a hugely important emotional
issue for the Kurds. They feel they've historically
been the majority [of the population there]. They
feel they were unlawfully and unjustly expelled. The
[Kurdish] leaders have escalated its importance,
referring to it as the 'Jerusalem' of Kurdistan or
the 'heart' of Kurdistan," says Galbraith.
In the late 1980s, Saddam Hussein sent large numbers
of Arabs from other parts of Iraq to Kirkuk to
displace the Kurds. After Saddam fell in 2003, Kurds
flooded back into the city and the surrounding
province, demanding their property back. This has
become a major source of friction between Kirkuk's
ethnic factions.
While Kurds say they are acting to correct Saddam's
actions, Steven Cook at the Council on Foreign
Relations in New York says the influx of Kurds is
also a political move ahead of a key vote. "There
has been a clear effort on the part of the Kurds to
rebalance Kirkuk's population in favor of the Kurds
in preparation for a referendum that will take place
in 2007 over the disposition of the city. It's clear
to me that the outcome of that referendum will be in
favor of Kirkuk being within the [official] Kurdish
area of northern Iraq. And this is something of
tremendous concern to the neighbors," says Cook.
One concerned neighbor, Turkey, has called for the
referendum to be put before all Iraqis, not just
those in Kirkuk. Driving that concern, say many
analysts, is the oil pipeline from Kirkuk to the
Turkish port of Ceyhan that Ankara does not want to
see controlled by the Kurdistan Regional Government.
Turkish forces move toward the Iraq border
In recent months, Ankara has deployed at least
200,000 troops to southeastern Turkey along the Iraq
border, ostensibly to pursue the Kurdish P.K.K.
terrorist group. But many analysts say the
deployment is also meant to remind Iraq's Kurds that
Ankara is concerned about their designs on Kirkuk,
and their broader efforts to achieve independence.
There is yet another element in the struggle for
Kirkuk. Outspoken Shi'a cleric Moqtada al-Sadr has
strongly opposed Kurdish attempts to take control of
Kirkuk. Some observers say that if the Kurds succeed
in next year's referendum, al-Sadr might respond by
pushing for the creation of a semi- autonomous Shi'a
Arab-dominated region in southern Iraq. And that,
they say, could help move Iraq toward breaking into
three independent states, ending more than eight
decades as a unified country and strongly impacting
the region's geopolitical balance.
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