Let it break
up. It seems a simple enough solution.
Iraq's three main groups - the Shiite Arabs, the Sunni Arabs and the
Kurds - are killing each other with greater ferocity than ever, and
the Americans are playing referee.
A number of American officials and experts, weary from the
bloodletting, are giving renewed attention to proposals to let the
regions of Iraq break into their own parts.
In the latest issue of Foreign Affairs, Leslie Gelb, president
emeritus of the Council on Foreign Relations, argues for a variation
of sectarian division - a loose federation of three largely
autonomous regions that might help stop Iraq's slide into civil war
while avoiding a complete breakup of the country.
As attractive as the idea of dividing Iraq into sectarian regions
sounds, it has one big problem: Especially in Iraq's urban areas, it
could be a bloody affair. (Mr. Gelb acknowledges this, but says the
risk of violence is no greater than under other solutions proposed
for Iraq.)
From afar, it might seem that drawing new borders between Iraq's
main groups could be accomplished fairly easily. Each group
predominates in a different part of the country: Sunnis in the west,
Kurds in the north, Shiites in the south. In the north, the Kurds,
with their own language, army and regional government, have already
gone their own way.
But in Baghdad, Kirkuk and Mosul, there are no clear geographical
lines separating the main groups. A breakup into ethnic regions or
states would almost certainly increase the pressure on families to
flee the mixed neighborhoods to be closer to members of their own
group. Shiites to Shiites, Sunnis to Sunnis. Ethnic cleansing is
already happening in Iraq, but still at a relatively slow pace.
Iraq's main groups - and even smaller ones, like Christians and
Turkomans - now live together in many places. While the Tigris River
acts as a broad ethnic boundary in both Baghdad and Mosul - Sunnis
on the west and Shiites on the east in Baghdad, and Sunnis on the
west and Kurds on the east in Mosul - there are large pockets of
each group on both sides of the river.
Trying to divide those cities could result in the expulsion of tens
of thousands of people from their homes, maybe more. That is not a
pretty process: the neighborhoods around the edges of Baghdad have
already experienced a lot of ethnic cleansing - mainly Shiites being
forced from their homes. Many of these families have fled to refugee
camps in central Baghdad. The individual stories told by these
families are heartbreaking. Not everyone survives.
Kirkuk is the most complicated Iraqi city of all. It is divided into
three main communities: Arab, Turkoman and Kurd. Within those there
are many subgroups - Sunni and Shiite Arab, Sunni and Shiite
Turkoman. As in both Baghdad and Mosul, there are pockets of
Christians scattered throughout.
In Kirkuk, the main issue is how to rectify the expulsion of tens of
thousands of Kurds by Saddam Hussein in the 1980's. The houses
emptied by the fleeing Kurds were filled by Arab families lured
north by Mr. Hussein's regime. Since the fall of Mr. Hussein, tens
of thousands of Kurds have been streaming back, mostly living in
squalid camps on the city's eastern side. Splitting this city - and
its oil reserves - would probably come down to power. In all
likelihood, that wouldn't be pretty, either.
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