On Monday, a proposal for ending the
chaos in Iraq was put forward by Sen. Joseph Biden, D-Del. Biden was
addressing the fact that a rising tide of sectarian violence has
become the biggest threat to Iraq's future.
As do many U.S. military commanders, Biden argues that the only
solution to this downward spiral is political, not military. His
proposal: The United States should facilitate the division of Iraq
into three largely autonomous regions for its quarreling factions --
Kurd, Shiite and Sunni -- with a separate federal status for
Baghdad.
Biden is one of the best-informed legislators on Iraq and has made
six trips there. So his proposal merits serious attention,
especially since more experts are likely to endorse it.
Let me say up front that I am dubious about the plan, even though it
reflects a process of ethnic and religious separation already well
under way in Iraq. But let me lay out the details before I get to my
objections.
Biden notes that Iraq's Kurds already have their own autonomous
region in the north. Many Shiites are promoting the idea of a
semi-autonomous Shiite region in the south -- call it Shiastan.
Iraq's Sunni minority -- strongest in the center and west of the
country -- is vehemently opposed to such decentralization. But Biden
thinks Sunnis might be more amenable to a Sunnistan if they were
guaranteed a fair share of oil revenue from the north and south.
The senator points out that the new Iraqi constitution already
provides for a loose federal system. The "national unity" government
-- which is still being formed -- will have to thrash out the
details over the next few months.
Meantime, sectarian killing is on the rise. Hard-core Sunni
insurgents, including former Baathists and the terrorist leader Abu
Musab al-Zarqawi, have tried to stir up civil war by targeting
Shiite shrines and civilians.
As for the new Iraqi army, which President Bush claims will take
over security duties from U.S. troops, Iraqis don't trust it.
Because Iraq isn't united, the army can't be either. Sunnis fear
Shiite and Kurdish army units.
The police and Iraqi commandos are infiltrated by sectarian
militias, who are accused of revenge killings of Sunnis. The Iraqi
government says 90,000 Shiite and Sunni civilians have already fled
from mixed towns or neighborhoods because they feared reprisals.
Indeed, were it not for the continued U.S. troop presence in Iraq
alongside Iraqi forces, the Iraqi security forces would probably
split up into ethnic components. Read the authoritative new book
"Insurgency and Counter-Insurgency in Iraq" by Ahmed Hashim, a
professor at the U.S. Naval War College who served as a U.S.
military adviser in the 2005 battle for Tal Afar, if you want to get
a clear picture of the ethno-sectarian divisions within the Iraqi
army.
So Biden says we should recognize reality, foster a loose federalism
and encourage the reluctant Sunnis to accept it. He proposes "multisectarian
and international police protection" for mixed areas, where ethnic
cleansing would worsen if the country moved toward territorial
separation. Biden wants to draw Iraq's neighbors into the plan by
inviting them to a regional security conference. And he calls for
President Bush to draw up a plan to withdraw or redeploy all but a
small, residual force by 2008.
It sounds great on paper, and I commend Biden for thinking outside
the box. But I do not think America can afford to publicly promote
Iraq's territorial division. Such a split may be where Iraq is
headed anyway, but the decision must be left up to Iraqi
politicians, who will be debating the subject furiously this summer.
Nor do I think we can afford to set a timetable for withdrawal now.
The Bush administration's gross mistakes facilitated Iraq's
collapse; without a continued U.S. troop presence it will sink into
full-scale civil war.
Even if Iraqi leaders agree on federation, the fighting will
continue. No international police will be available to patrol mixed
areas; U.S. forces will be required to hold Iraqi units in check.
And with the United States and Iran at each other's throats, we are
not likely to see a conference of Iraq's neighbors.
If the Bush administration wants to calm Iraq down, it should
contemplate promoting a regional conference. But it should stay in
the background as Iraqis argue over a federal system. Help them,
yes. Facilitate, yes. But nothing could be worse for the United
States than to be viewed in the region as the imperial agent who
dismembered Iraq.
Trudy Rubin writes for The Philadelphia Inquirer
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