The sectarian tensions of the rest of
Iraq are threatening to seep into the minority's relatively stable
enclave. And the Kurds may not be the only casualty
To many Western minds, the Kurdish-dominated, mountainous northern
part of Iraq is an island of relative stability amidst the chaos and
bloodshed that wreak havoc in the rest of the country. In fact, with
the Kurds boxed in on all sides by jealous and often unfriendly
neighbors, that image has always been a bit misguided. But lately
the sectarian tensions that surround the Kurdish enclave have begun
to make their presence felt more strongly, threatening not just the
Kurds' way of life but U.S. hopes for bringing some measure of peace
and stability to all of Iraq.
In recent weeks Turkey and Iran, two neighbors that worry about the
separatist aspirations of their own significant minority Kurdish
populations, have tightened the noose around the Iraqi Kurds. As
Turkey's civil war against Kurdish separatist guerrillas — an
independent radical group known as the Kurdistan Workers Party, or
PKK — has escalated since the beginning of the year, the Turkish
army has begun massing at the Iraqi border. Last week, Turkish
commandos began crossing the border to pursue PKK fighters who take
refuge in Iraq. Meanwhile, the Iranian Army on Monday shelled
Kurdish villages in the Qandil mountains of northern Iraq, an area
inhabited by PKK guerillas and used as a launching pad for Kurdish
rebels seeking autonomy in Iran
But the Kurds are facing possibly growing problems not just from
across its borders. Iraq's Arab majority has long suspected that the
Kurds want to break apart their country and take northern Iraq's
rich oilfields with them, and that suspicion fueled recent reports
that hundreds of Shi'ite Arab militiamen have moved into the
northern city of Kirkuk.
U.S. military and diplomatic officials have claimed that radical
cleric Muqtada Al Sadr — accused by the U.S. of sectarian reprisals
in Baghad and elsewhere in southern Iraq — and the country's largest
Shi'ite party have started to send in small numbers of their armed
loyalists. The status of Kirkuk, officially to be decided in a
referendum by the end of 2007, is one of the most contentious issues
facing the new Iraqi government; though claimed by the Kurds, it is
controlled by Baghdad, which is reluctant to part with its vast
oilfields.
But the reports of militiamen decamping to Kirkuk in force may be
inaccurate. According to Iraqi laws designed to preserve the fragile
ethnic balance of the city, no one can move into Kirkuk without the
permission of the Kirkuk governorate, and that permission has not
been granted, according to Rebwar Talabani, the deputy governor of
Kirkuk. A small number of families have fled to Kirkuk from Baghdad,
"but we will not accept them as citizens of Kirkuk and we will not
allow them to stay here," he said. "What people say about the Sadr
movement is exaggerated by the media. We don't have any evidence of
that."
The Kurds' army, the 95,000-strong Peshmerga militia (the name
literally means "those who face death"), is the largest and most
disciplined in Iraq, and would be a formidable guerrilla force if
fighting started in the mountains of their homeland. On the other
hand, many Shi'ites have insisted that if the new Iraqi government
is going to crack down on and try to disband ethnic militias, then
the Peshmerga shouldn't be exempted.
As for the Kurds' neighbors, Turkey stands to lose a lot of business
from a confrontation. Its trade with Iraq, especially in the form of
oil products, has skyrocketed since the American-led occupation, and
almost all of it passes through Kurdish territory.
The wild card in the situation is Iran. The U.S. has long accused
Iran of helping to destabilize Iraq, and the timing of its military
foray into Iraqi territory is significant. Just as Iran faces
international isolation over its nuclear enrichtment program and
talk of possible U.S. military action in Iran is running high in
Washington, the attack appears to be a calculated warning to the
U.S. that however bad things are now in Iraq, they could get even
worse. And as has so often happened in their tragic history, the
Kurds could be the first, though certainly not the only, casualty.
With reporting by Rebaz Ali/ Erbil
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