Unity Through Autonomy in Iraq 1.5.2006
By JOSEPH R. BIDEN JR. and LESLIE H. GELB | |
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A decade ago, Bosnia was torn apart
by ethnic cleansing and facing its demise as a single country. After
much hesitation, the United States stepped in decisively with the
Dayton Accords, which kept the country whole by, paradoxically,
dividing it into ethnic federations, even allowing Muslims, Croats
and Serbs to retain separate armies.
With the help of American and other forces, Bosnians have lived a
decade in relative peace and are now slowly strengthening their
common central government, including disbanding those separate
armies last year.
Now the Bush administration, despite its profound strategic
misjudgments in Iraq, has a similar opportunity. To seize it,
however, America must get beyond the present false choice between
"staying the course" and "bringing the troops home now" and choose a
third way that would wind down our military presence responsibly
while preventing chaos and preserving our key security goals.
The idea, as in Bosnia, is to maintain a united Iraq by
decentralizing it, giving each ethno-religious group — Kurd, Sunni
Arab and Shiite Arab — room to run its own affairs, while leaving
the central government in charge of common interests. We could drive
this in place with irresistible sweeteners for the Sunnis to join
in, a plan designed by the military for withdrawing and redeploying
American forces, and a regional nonaggression pact. |
Joseph R. Biden Jr., Democrat of Delaware, is the ranking member of
the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. Leslie H. Gelb is the
president emeritus of the Council on Foreign Relations.
Gov website
Photo: AFP |
It is increasingly clear that President Bush does not have a
strategy for victory in Iraq. Rather, he hopes to prevent defeat and
pass the problem along to his successor. Meanwhile, the frustration
of Americans is mounting so fast that Congress might end up
mandating a rapid pullout, even at the risk of precipitating chaos
and a civil war that becomes a regional war.
As long as American troops are in Iraq in significant numbers, the
insurgents can't win and we can't lose. But intercommunal violence
has surpassed the insurgency as the main security threat. Militias
rule swathes of Iraq and death squads kill dozens daily. Sectarian
cleansing has recently forced tens of thousands from their homes. On
top of this, President Bush did not request additional
reconstruction assistance and is slashing funds for groups promoting
democracy.
Iraq's new government of national unity will not stop the
deterioration. Iraqis have had three such governments in the last
three years, each with Sunnis in key posts, without noticeable
effect. The alternative path out of this terrible trap has five
elements.
The first is to establish three largely autonomous regions with a
viable central government in Baghdad. The Kurdish, Sunni and Shiite
regions would each be responsible for their own domestic laws,
administration and internal security. The central government would
control border defense, foreign affairs and oil revenues.
Baghdad would become a federal zone, while densely populated areas
of mixed populations would receive both multisectarian and
international police protection.
Decentralization is hardly as radical as it may seem: the Iraqi
Constitution, in fact, already provides for a federal structure and
a procedure for provinces to combine into regional governments.
Besides, things are already heading toward partition: increasingly,
each community supports federalism, if only as a last resort. The
Sunnis, who until recently believed they would retake power in Iraq,
are beginning to recognize that they won't and don't want to live in
a Shiite-controlled, highly centralized state with laws enforced by
sectarian militias. The Shiites know they can dominate the
government, but they can't defeat a Sunni insurrection. The Kurds
will not give up their 15-year-old autonomy.
Some will say moving toward strong regionalism would ignite
sectarian cleansing. But that's exactly what is going on already, in
ever-bigger waves. Others will argue that it would lead to
partition. But a breakup is already under way. As it was in Bosnia,
a strong federal system is a viable means to prevent both perils in
Iraq.
The second element would be to entice the Sunnis into joining the
federal system with an offer they couldn't refuse. To begin with,
running their own region should be far preferable to the
alternatives: being dominated by Kurds and Shiites in a central
government or being the main victims of a civil war. But they also
have to be given money to make their oil-poor region viable. The
Constitution must be amended to guarantee Sunni areas 20 percent
(approximately their proportion of the population) of all revenues.
The third component would be to ensure the protection of the rights
of women and ethno-religious minorities by increasing American aid
to Iraq but tying it to respect for those rights. Such protections
will be difficult, especially in the Shiite-controlled south, but
Washington has to be clear that widespread violations will stop the
cash flow.
Fourth, the president must direct the military to design a plan for
withdrawing and redeploying our troops from Iraq by 2008 (while
providing for a small but effective residual force to combat
terrorists and keep the neighbors honest). We must avoid a
precipitous withdrawal that would lead to a national meltdown , but
we also can't have a substantial long-term American military
presence.
That would do terrible damage to our armed forces, break American
and Iraqi public support for the mission and leave Iraqis without
any incentive to shape up.
Fifth, under an international or United Nations umbrella, we should
convene a regional conference to pledge respect for Iraq's borders
and its federal system. For all that Iraq's neighbors might gain by
picking at its pieces, each faces the greater danger of a regional
war. A "contact group" of major powers would be set up to lean on
neighbors to comply with the deal.
Mr. Bush has spent three years in a futile effort to establish a
strong central government in Baghdad, leaving us without a real
political settlement, with a deteriorating security situation — and
with nothing but the most difficult policy choices. The five-point
alternative plan offers a plausible path to that core political
settlement among Iraqis, along with the economic, military and
diplomatic levers to make the political solution work. It is also a
plausible way for Democrats and Republicans alike to protect our
basic security interests and honor our country's sacrifices.
Joseph R. Biden Jr., Democrat of Delaware, is the ranking member
of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. Leslie H. Gelb is the
president emeritus of the Council on Foreign Relations.
NY Times.com
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