|
It is imperative that
dysfunctional events in Iraq do not erupt into a
civil war of no return. Any full-scale confrontation
between Iraqi Sunnis and Shiites in the near future
could lead to a Middle East wide conflagration,
disrupt critical oil shipments to dependent
industrial nations; hence precipitate a planet wide
economic recession or depression. Facts on the
ground suggest that perilous set of events could
materialize if prescient policy decisions are not
made forthwith. No doubt, Israel would not be immune
to catastrophic consequences engendered by raging
battles in its own neighborhood, experiencing major
downturns in tourism, trade and the overall
well-being of its citizens. Furthermore, if the
Middle East does blow several years from now, Iran
would likely seize that opportunity to attack the
Jewish State with any nuclear arsenal it might
possess. Thus progress on stabilizing Iraq must be
followed closely by the Knesset, as well as become
an urgent priority for policy makers not only in
America but in all of Europe and Asia as well. The
entire planet surely is at risk in a worse case
scenario.
Iraq consists of three major Muslim cultures;
non-Arab Kurds, Arab Sunnis, and Arab Shiites. Kurds
overall are the most secular and tolerant, yearning
for an independent state of Kurdistan and sufficient
fossil fuel to finance and energize their economy.
Sunni and Shiite tribes maintain grudges born of
historically diverse religious viewpoints dating
back to their prophet Muhammad. Furthermore, since
the fall of sadist Hussein, a Sunni, the majority
Shiite population in effect has assumed the reins of
political power from its understandably sore-loser
adversaries. Both feuding tribes demand fossil fuel
for economic sustenance, but most of that black gold
bubbles beneath a southern region populated mainly
by Shiites. As it stands, the Sunnis not only lose
political control of Iraq, they also lose economic
viability. What to do?
The United States, Britain and Western nations in
general remain despised by a vast number of both
Iraqi Sunnis and Shiites, especially
fundamentalists, in their collective mind’s-eye
perceiving such crusaders/infidels as obsessed
invaders questing for virtual ownership of that
vicious viscous substance saturating their war-torn
desert. It takes no rocket scientist to comprehend
policy decisions seen as originating from the West
will be summarily rejected by enraged insurgent
leaders and their frothing minions, fanning the
flames of that dreaded potential Middle East
inferno. Thus, the obvious solution of splitting
Iraq into three loosely connected but mostly
autonomous states, from north to south controlled
respectively by Kurdish, Sunni and Shiite leaders,
concurrently splitting oil revenues somewhat evenly,
must not be proposed by the West! As an added
feature to this obvious solution, American military
bases would undoubtedly be welcome in the friendly
Kurdish north; helping to maintain a peaceful state
of affairs between Turkey and Kurdistan, but
discussions relating to this matter would be
reserved for a more propitious time. Alas, if the
West cannot craft such a tension-easing strategy,
why not turn to the Russian Bear and/or the Oriental
Dragon as intermediaries in this endeavor. Would
President’s Vladimir Putin and/or Hu Jintao be prone
to engage in this mission, initiating a summit
between all relevant parties, perhaps in some
neutral venue? What’s in it for them? Would either
one or both be acceptable mediators for the involved
participants?
Russia, a major exporter of oil, would suffer no
shortages if OPEC becomes engulfed in chaos. Indeed,
the price of Russian crude could soar to the moon if
industrial nations could pay. However, that’s a big
if for even a temporary disruption of energy
supplies could push the planet into an economic
tailspin that Russian refineries could not avert,
thus would seriously wound the Bear as well. China’s
economic dynamo depends on conspicuous foreign
consumption, especially from American consumers and
retailers such as Wal-Mart. A worldwide recession or
depression could grind that engine in overdrive to a
standstill. Furthermore, both potentates could bask
in glory if instrumental in successfully brokering a
peaceful solution to the Iraq crisis. No credible
source would confer any unacceptable links between
these world leaders and the West. The only losers in
such a favorable outcome would be demented Islamic
fundamentalist creeps motivated by delusions of
grandeur, salivating to assume control of a region
rife with instability. Is there a better solution?
infoisrael net
Top |
® 