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On Human Events Online
this March, John Thomson reiterated the compelling
case for a decentralized Iraq ["America in Iraq:
These Colors Must Not Run"], which we had originally
proposed in articles published in February and June
2004. We therefore welcome the recent publication by
Sen. Joseph Biden (D.-Del.) and Leslie Gelb in the
New York Times of their article, "Unity
Through Autonomy in Iraq." Our only question to
them and others is "Gentlemen, what took you so
long?"
There remains as yet little indication the Bush
Administration is considering any significant
alteration to its long sounded call for a
centralized government. However, even the most
stubborn, ill-experienced observer must agree that
long-term prospects for such a formulation are
slight indeed. In any event, we are delighted that
after more than two years' gestation, the idea is
getting attention and being discussed more broadly.
There are clearly challenges aplenty in the
fulfillment of any governance formula for Iraq. The
Arab world’s authoritarian tradition extends to
Baghdad, requiring resolution and clear codification
in law. Fortunately, at the leadership level, good
judgment increasingly seems to prevail. Agreement on
a prime minister and cabinet, after months of
politicking, means politicians on all sides are
becoming realistic, causing us to infer they have a
clear understanding of the virtual impossibility of
creating an effective, strong central government.
Shi'a and Kurd leaders overwhelmingly favor a
decentralized government, with the Sunnis nominally
opposed, fearing they will be dealt out of Iraq’s
oil wealth.
What is required is equitable distribution of oil
ownership with its attendant financial benefits, a
challenge that provides an outstanding free-market
opportunity, as discussed below. Arguments that the
Kurds would slide from semi-autonomy to full
independence and the Sunni sector would become a
haven for terrorism are specious, so long as the
United States maintains its promise to backup the
fledgling government and its military forces. A
Shi'a community controlled by Iran is equally
improbable, owing to centuries of distrust between
Arab and Persian Shi'ites.
The following is what we have been recommending for
the past two years, respecting both governance and
petroleum.
Governance. A cantonal system similar to the Swiss
model is the most viable option for the restive,
fearful Iraqi communities -- Shi'a, Kurd, Sunni,
Christian and Turkmen. In countless talks with a
broad range of Iraqi leaders, it appears eminently
possible to maintain an Iraqi national fabric while
allowing for semi-autonomous governance in different
sectors of the country. Such a formula has
peacefully embraced very different communities, the
very challenge facing Iraq, in one nation for 800
years: Switzerland.
A system of five cantonal districts can be
envisioned. Three would be Kurd, Sunni and Shi'a
dominated, based respectively in the northern,
central and southern areas of the country. Two other
cantons would have special administrative status:
the one, based in Baghdad (a melting pot of Shi'a,
Kurds, Sunnis, Turkmen and Christians, among
others), would be recognized by all Iraqis as the
country's capital canton; the other, embracing
oil-rich Kirkuk plus Diali-Khanaqin, would also have
special status owing to the area's equally diverse
ethnicity.
The Kurdish canton should contain three main
districts -- Erbil, Dahuk and Suleimaniya.
Concentrated in the North, the Kurds are a dynamic,
non-Arab minority comprising some 20% of Iraq's
population. They have been remarkably capable of
governing themselves effectively for a decade, and
should retain their status.
The Kurdish leadership has solemnly undertaken not
to seek independence from Iraq, a development which
would greatly upset neighboring Turkey, Iran and
Syria, each with large and restive Kurdish
communities eager for independence as part of a
renewed Kurdistan. Indeed, Having the Kurds remain
semi-autonomous is the surest way to keep them from
seeking complete independence.
The Sunni minority, similar in size to the Kurds, is
reviled by the Shi'a because of decades of
oppression by Saddam Hussein's regime, and a Shi'a-dominated
strong central government worries them, particularly
following credible reports during the past year of
Interior Ministry support for attacks on Sunni
communities. The Sunni should have their own
semi-autonomous canton in their heartland, the
notorious "Sunni triangle" north and west of
Baghdad. Once the Sunnis are secure in their
safety–plus a fair share of Iraq's petroleum wealth
-- they will cooperate fully in the eradication of
the foreign Islamist terrorists, as well as the
Sunni guerrillas, for one simple reason: They will
have gained virtually all of what they want.
The numerically dominant Shi'a strongly favor
running their own affairs, provided there is
agreement on the composition and residual
responsibilities of a Baghdad national government.
Shi'a would control their own development and
destiny in the south and central areas where they
predominate, and also be a pivotal force in a
national government based in the Baghdad capital
canton plus the ethnically mixed Kirkuk and
Diali-Khanaqin.
The remaining sizable community to be specially
considered is the Turkmen, who have felt
inadequately considered since Iraq's liberation and
are fearful for their rights. Most live in the two
proposed mixed cantons, as does the much smaller
Christian community. Clearly, every effort should be
made to guarantee the rights of all minorities in
the ultimate cantonal and national constitutions.
The national government should provide for Iraq's
foreign relations, internal and external defense and
monetary requirements, plus oversee the development,
management and equitable operation of the country's
massive petroleum reserves.
Petroleum. We have encountered no substantial or
meaningful case favoring a nationalized,
government-owned petroleum industry, just as we have
heard no persuasive argument in Baghdad or
Washington for a centralized Iraqi government.
Indeed, there could be no stronger proof of Iraq's
newly attained free-market status than for its
greatest natural resource not to be socialized.
Iraq's petroleum wealth, an asset of inestimable
potential perhaps even greater than that of Saudi
Arabia, must be developed to the benefit of all the
country's citizens. Oil in the north cannot be
solely for the benefit of Kurds, or oil in the south
solely benefiting the Shi'a: petroleum is a resource
which must benefit all Iraqis equally.
The nation's enormous oil patch clearly requires
committed oversight. Local management, reporting to
a Board of Directors (half designated by a super
majority of the national parliament and half by a
similar majority of shareholders) would see to the
industry's effective and honest operation, utilizing
international companies to prospect and develop the
oilfields plus market production.
Actual ownership should be completely Iraqi,
adopting a modified Norwegian model that provides
direct participation in the financial benefits of
its oil industry to the citizenry, to whom of course
the resource belongs. A key difference from the
Norwegian model, however, should be that the Iraqi
petroleum industry is actually owned by the
citizens, whereas the Norwegian industry is
state-owned, with profits earmarked to a host of
services benefiting all citizens.
The keys to a successful citizen-owned, locally
managed and internationally developed petroleum
sector are threefold:
1. An equal number of shares distributed to every
citizen age 18 or older.
2. Shares held by the original recipient for a
minimum of five years, except in the event of death,
when they would be deeded to the designated next of
kin. In any event, shares could be held only by
Iraqi citizens.
3. All petroleum-related operations overseen by an
independent Board of Directors.
A citizen-owned oil industry would send a resounding
message to Iran, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and every
other oil-producing state in the region: Petroleum
is a resource of each country's citizens. In so
doing, state-owned companies would no longer have
the option, as currently, to creak with inefficiency
and reek of corruption.
Implementation of a federated government and
free-market petroleum industry owned by all Iraqis
would lead to:
Development of trusted leadership cadres in the
three major population groups;
Reduction in potentially disastrous inter-communal
rivalries;
No need to deal with Tehran’s foul regime,
simultaneously encouraging the already strong
Iranian opposition;
Creation of a genuine beacon of free-market
democracy in the Middle East.
This is decidedly not the time to cut and run. With
renewed, enlightened commitment among Iraqi leaders
plus recognition in Washington that progress must
evolve in different ways at different times in
different countries, we firmly believe the way
forward is promising indeed.
America's Iraqi experience since the end of its
brilliant military campaign has been an object
lesson in what not to do. However, it is not too
late to reverse the downward spiral and to implement
with clarity and conviction what can and should be
done to bring peace and stability to the country
and, thence, the region.
Our recommended approaches to governance as well as
petroleum sector organization and ownership have the
great benefit of being broadly accepted by all
Iraqis. They would avoid much of the predictable
disputes that the coalition's current centralized
approach for government and a nationalized petroleum
sector have produced. Indeed, they would be as
refreshing to good governance and nascent capitalism
as the widely popular 15% flat tax for individuals
and corporations that is already in place.
What remains is Republican concurrence with this
thoroughly non-partisan solution to Iraq's two most
pressing issues, followed by the U.S. mission and
its British partners providing guidance and
encouragement to the country's new cabinet in the
fulfillment of these realistic goals.
Mr. Thomson has lived and worked in the Middle East
for four decades, as businessman, diplomat and
journalist.
Dr. Hindawi founded and edited for eight years UPI's
Arabic service, and most recently served as chairman
of the Independent Iraqi Electoral Commission.
Humaneventsonline com
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