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Tomorrow it will be
exactly four months since Iraqis went to the polls
in their historic parliamentary election, but they
are still waiting for a new government to be formed.
The obstacle at the moment is Ibrahim al-Jaafari,
the ineffectual prime minister who was once hailed
by President Bush as "a strong partner for peace and
freedom" - though the Americans, and many Iraqis
too, now want to dump him. Mr Jaafari was nominated
for a second term by the dominant Shia bloc in a
narrow vote, with backing from the troublesome
cleric Moqtada al-Sadr.
Talks aimed at forming a government of national
unity have stalled because some factions refuse to
accept him and Mr Jaafari is unwilling to step down.
Even if the impasse can be broken reasonably soon,
none of this bodes well for the future. Once a new
government is in place, the political timetable
calls for four months of debate to clarify Iraq's
constitution - the signal for yet another round of
interminable haggling and stand-offs. All the
divisive questions that were fudged in order to get
the constitution approved last year will return:
arguments about federalism and Kurdish autonomy, the
role of Islamic law, apportionment of oil revenues,
to name just a few.
With politics firmly entrenched along sectarian and
ethnic lines, and with little give-and-take between
the factions, it is difficult to see any quick
resolution.
In the meantime, and in the absence of effective
national security forces, the quarrelling factions
are taking matters into their own hands, through the
use of militias. This, as the US ambassador in
Baghdad recognises, provides the "infrastructure of
civil war". Though the daily suicide bombings still
attract most of the media's attention, a far more
sinister trend is developing.
This is the growing number of mutilated bodies that
turn up - people who have been abducted and killed,
simply because they belonged to the wrong sect.
The Americans say they are seeking to disband the
militias, though they have tried it before without
success. Iraqis themselves are not pinning hopes on
that; many are applying to change their names so it
will be less obvious which sect they belong to. Up
to 30,000 others have left their homes in recent
weeks, fleeing to areas where they feel more secure
and raising echoes of the ethnic and religious
"cleansing" witnessed during the break-up of
Yugoslavia.
Today Iraq is a country with no real government. It
may be only a matter of time, though, before there
is a government with no real country to govern.
www.guardian.co.uk
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