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The future status of the
oil-rich disputed province of Kirkuk lies behind
Iraq's current political crisis - complicating the
creation of a stable post-invasion political order.
Iraqi leaders yesterday overcame the most recent
obstacle to forming the first permanent
post-invasion government, a seemingly minor but
nonetheless bitter disagreement over when parliament
should meet.
Parliament is now set to meet on March 19, four days
later than a constitutional deadline, after the Shia
demanded more time to settle disagreements over
Ibrahim al-Jaafari, prime minister.
The Jaafari dispute however is only a symptom of
deeper rifts.
Iraq's newly elected legislature is split almost
down the middle between the United Iraqi Alliance,
the Shia-led ruling coalition of which Mr Jaafari's
Dawa party is a member, and an alliance comprising
Kurds, Sunni Arabs, and allies of the
secular-leaning Shia leader Iyad Allawi who say they
cannot work with him.
Each group has its reasons to oppose Mr Jaafari -
the Sunnis say he has failed to protect them from
Shia death squads - but the initiators of this
particular push to unseat him are the Kurds, and
their key grievance is Kirkuk.
The future of the province is the emotional centre
of Iraqi Kurdish nationalism. Saddam Hussein enacted
a policy of "Arabisation" that drove Kurds and other
non-Arabs from Kirkuk and replaced them with
settlers, mainly from the Shia south, and made
border adjustments to cut the Kurdish population of
Iraq's northern oil centre.
Kurds say Arabisation must be reversed, and what
will then presumably be a Kurdish-majority province
should vote on whether or not to join the autonomous
Kurdistan federal region.
Many Shia leaders balked at these demands. Sunni and
Shia Arab public opinion is distrustful of Kurdish
autonomy and loath to extend it to Kirkuk. Mr
Jaafari in particular is believed to support a
strong central government.
However, the need to reach consensus to form a
postwar government eventually led to an accord,
first cemented in Article 58 of Iraq's 2004
transitional constitution, and reaffirmed in the
permanent constitution approved in October, that
falls roughly in line with the Kurdish vision for
the city.
According to Iraq's current constitution, the
"normalisation" of Kirkuk and the referendum are
supposed to be completed by December 31 2007.
The Kurds have long accused Mr Jaafari of
stonewalling on the accord. They say his government
has settled only a fraction of the hundreds of
thousands of refugees eligible for resettlement. The
issue briefly paralysed the formation of Iraq's
transitional government a year ago, until the Shia
provided written guarantees that Article 58 would be
implemented.
The spark that launched the current crisis was a
visit last month to Turkey by Mr Jaafari. The Kurds
say they were not told in advance of this trip to a
country they perceive as hostile to their national
aspirations.
"Jaafari has been the prime minister for the last
year. The Kurds have had always a problem with him .
. . not implementing Article 58," says an
independent Kurdish politician, Mahmoud Othman. The
Ankara trip, he says, "ignited" the issue.
The Shia deny keeping the Ankara trip secret from
the Kurds, and claim they are not trying to back out
of their commitments - they merely need more time.
"We in the Dawa party and the UIA intend to
implement the constitution to the letter," says
Haydar al-Abadi, an adviser to Mr Jaafari.
However, he adds, "we have until the end of 2007. .
. The county is in a very bad shape for [the Kurds]
to make such a demand."
Few would deny the process is politically delicate.
Many Sunni Arabs and Turkomen in the province
strongly oppose Kirkuk ever becoming part of an
autonomous Kurdistan, as do some of Mr Jaafari's
Shia allies.
However, the Kurds say they have no faith in Mr
Jaafari, and insist on another leader. The Shia
meanwhile say the Kurds should not personalise a
policy dispute.
With the stand-off showing no sign of ending, Time
magazine reported that the US ambassador, Zalmay
Khalilzad, wanted to hold a conference where all
factions would be coaxed into agreeing a common
policy. If it happens, an item that many Iraqis
thought settled two years ago will be one of the
first things on the agenda.
news.ft.com
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