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Defense Secretary Donald
H. Rumsfeld disclosed yesterday that the military
has participated in war games in the event of an
Iraq civil war, but does not believe that if it
comes the fighting will be of the magnitude of the
American Civil War.
As sectarian violence continued in Iraq, Mr.
Rumsfeld said the intelligence community has
envisioned what a Shi'ite-Sunni conflict might look
like.
"And they should be," he told a Pentagon press
conference. "That's what people do. Do I think we're
in a civil war at the present time? No."
Asked when he will know if the violence has
escalated to civil war, the defense secretary said,
"It's a hard thing to do, and people are analyzing
that and thinking about it. And I think until I've
had a chance to think more about it and -- I will
say, I don't think it'll look like the United States
Civil War."
Historians estimate that around 600,000 Union and
Confederate soldiers died in that war from combat,
disease and accidents.
In Iraq, there is no serious talk of either the
Kurdish, Shi'ite or Sunni regions seceding from Iraq
and forming separate nations. Some Kurds have talked
of an independent Kurdistan, but have submitted to
the U.S. demand for a central Baghdad government.
All three major factions voted in substantial
numbers in the Dec. 15 election of a permanent
parliament.
So far, talks have bogged down in forming a new
power-sharing government. That fact, coupled with a
sharp rise in violence after the Feb. 22 bombing of
a sacred Shi'ite mosque in Samarra, has heightened
talk of civil war. Rep. John P. Murtha, Pennsylvania
Democrat, said a civil war already has started and
wants a quick pullout of U.S. troops.
U.S. commanders disagree.
"I believe that they have looked at the path that
leads to civil war and decided they do not want to
go in that direction," said Gen. Peter Pace, Joint
Chiefs chairman, who also appeared at the press
conference.
"They're very much looking toward how can they have
a unified government. ... And there are many, many
more voices for unification and freedom amongst the
leadership, both elected and religious, in that
country than there are voices of opposition."
Mr. Rumsfeld said he spoke by phone with U.S.
Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad, who is trying to broker
a deal. "I came away from the conversation with Zal
with the feeling that he was encouraged because they
were leaning less on him and more on themselves in
their discussions and negotiations with each other,"
he said.
Mr. Rumsfeld has accused the U.S. press of ignoring
successes in Iraq and focusing almost solely on the
violence.
About 132,000 U.S. troops are in Iraq, a number that
could decrease later this year, depending on
political progress. "Do we think we're going to be
there four or five years more, in terms of large
numbers of U.S. ground forces?" Mr. Rumsfeld said.
"And the answer is 'no,' I don't think so.'"
washingtontimes.com
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