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Sh'ite divisions may hamstring Iraq prime
minister
15.2.2006
By Michael Georgy - Analysis
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BAGHDAD (Reuters)
- Division and infighting within Iraq's ruling
Islamist Shi'ite alliance could leave its nominee
for prime minister politically paralyzed as he tries
to rescue a country torn apart by sectarian
fighting.
After weeks of heated debate, the United Iraqi
Alliance (UIA), the biggest bloc in parliament,
resorted to a vote before nominating incumbent
Ibrahim al-Jaafari as prime minister of the next
government, two months after December 15 elections.
Jaafari, a leader of the Dawa party, won by only one
vote over Adel Abdul Mehdi, a senior figure in rival
party the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution
in Iraq (SCIRI). With such a slim mandate, stitching
together a cabinet could prove a huge struggle,
further straining relations with the UIA bloc.
Jaafari's efforts to form a government will need
sensitivity as he tries to keep Shi'ite factions
happy, while satisfying Kurds who have accused him
of monopolizing power and reaching out to Arab
Sunnis who are key to defusing the Sunni insurgency.
Political analysts say the cautious Jaafari must
make bold decisions that will send a strong signal
to factions inside his own alliance as well as
Sunnis, who have gained 58 of the 275 seats in
parliament after boycotting last January's election.
"Jaafari needs to create a government of
technocrats. Most of all you need them in the key
places such as the Interior Ministry. Secularists
who have no sectarian agenda," said Hazim al-Nu'amy,
a professor at Baghdad's Mustansiriya University.
That won't be easy for a leader whose approach to
crisis during his first, 10-month term was quiet
diplomacy followed by sweeping government promises
and little progress.
Control of the Interior Ministry is likely to be one
of the toughest battles as Jaafari shapes Iraq's
first full-term government since the fall of Saddam
Hussein in 2003.
It is controlled by SCIRI, the pro-Iranian party
linked to the Badr Brigades militia, which Sunnis
accuse of running death squads sanctioned by the
Shi'ite-led government. The government denies the
accusations.
Jaafari has vowed to crack down on abuses but that
could require politically risky action against
militias tied to members of his Shi'ite alliance.
Highlighting the problems ahead, government
spokesman Laith Kubba said this week that the
current political system which allows parties to
carve up ministries makes it impossible for Jaafari
to take control of the Interior Ministry.
SUNNIS KEY TO STABILITY
Loosening the grip of Shi'ite and Kurdish parties on
ministries is crucial to winning over Sunnis, who
accuse SCIRI of pursuing a sectarian policy of
giving the best positions to its members and
squeezing out minority Sunnis.
SCIRI, highly unpopular among many Sunnis for its
close ties to former foe Shi'ite Iran, denies the
accusations.
Some of its members play down splits in the Shi'ite
alliance, which also includes cleric Moqtada al-Sadr,
a former rebel leader who has rebelled against U.S.
and Iraqi troops.
Jaafari is backed by Sadr but the young firebrand
has always been unpredictable.
"There are many difficulties but I think we can
overcome them. Remember this was an interim
government and there are problems. This is not
Switzerland," said Reda Jiwaad Taki, a member of
SCIRI's political committee.
Jaafari, for his part, has offered little hard
evidence of how he intends to tackle daily suicide
bombings and shootings and revive a battered economy
that few investors will touch.
"We are going to continue to build the security
forces and stabilize the political situation. We are
going to work on forming a strong government to
enhance their performance as they work as a group,"
he told a news conference this week.
His promises provide little comfort to people like
Nazhan Alwaan in the town of Balad north of Baghdad.
After gunmen killed eight of his relatives on
Tuesday, including his five-year-old nephew, Alwaan
concluded that he was targeted simply because he was
a Shi'ite.
"We don't have any relations with the Americans, we
are not contractors, we don't know the police or
army, so what else could it be?" he asked.
Sectarian tensions have been fueled in part by
debate over the constitution. The Sunni minority
want amendments made to sections on federalism they
fear give Shi'ites and Kurds too much power and
control of Iraq's oil riches.
A strong central government may be what Jaafari
needs to help stabilize the country. But it may not
be possible under the existing constitution.
"All observers are critical that it creates a very
weak central government. The local governments enjoy
semi-autonomy and there is the question of spreading
revolts," Lakhdar Brahimi, U.N. architect of the
political process leading to elections in Iraq, told
Asharq al-Awsat newspaper.
"All of this could lead to the breakup of the
country and a continuation of present divisions
instead of ending them."
Reuters
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