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Shi'ites to choose premier nominee
11.2.2006
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Iraq's majority Shi'ite
coalition is to announce its nominee for the
powerful post of prime minister this weekend, as
certified election results released yesterday
confirmed the Shi'ites' overwhelming victory at the
polls.
Iraqi officials and U.S. sources said yesterday the
nomination was likely to go to either Vice President
Adil Abdul Mahdi of the powerful pro-Iranian Supreme
Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI)
or Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari of the Islamic
Dawa party.
"Tomorrow we will see who will be prime minister,"
Karim al-Musawi, SCIRI's Washington-based spokesman
said yesterday. He deemed Mr. Mahdi's chances of
getting the top post as very good.
The formation of a new government -- which promises
to be a much-stormier process -- will take place
within the next "six to eight weeks," Mr. al-Musawi
said.
U.S. Ambassador to Iraq Zalmay Khalilzad welcomed
the results and called for "a government based on
national unity, formed without regard to
sectarianism, committed to peace and with capable
ministers who place loyalty to Iraq above that of
loyalty to faction."
The announcements did nothing to stem the daily
sectarian violence in Iraq, as a car bomb exploded
outside a Sunni mosque in Baghdad's Dora district,
killing nine persons and wounding dozens.
The U.S. military announced that two Marines were
killed the previous day by a roadside bomb near
Fallujah, 40 miles west of Baghdad.
The Independent Electoral Commission of Iraq
announced the certified results of the Dec. 15 vote
after a protracted appeals process amid accusations
of fraud and ballot-box stuffing.
According to the final tally, the Shi'ite United
Iraqi Alliance won 128 seats; the Kurdish alliance
got 53 seats; the Sunni Iraqi Accord Front won 44
seats; the secular list headed by former Prime
Minister Iyad Allawi won 25 seats; the Sunni Iraqi
Front for National Dialogue won 11 seats; the
Kurdistan Islamic Union got five seats; and a
smattering of smaller parties won nine seats.
The nomination of a prime minister is partly the
result of pressure by American and British officials
to move forward on the election results. Unofficial
final results were released on Jan. 20.
"What we will probably see is the announcement of a
[Shi'ite] alliance candidate, Adil Abdul Mahdi of
SCIRI or Mr. al-Jaafari," said Jonathan Morrow of
the Washington-based U.S. Institute of Peace.
According to Iraq's constitution, President Jalal
Talabani must convene the new 275-seat parliament
within two weeks of election certification.
In the next 90 days, parliament will elect a
three-person presidency council, which, in turn,
will appoint a prime minister. The prime minister
then names a Cabinet, which must be confirmed by
parliament.
In reality, close observers of the process say,
there will be a lot of closed-door negotiations, and
only when the whole package is decided will any
announcements be made.
"Nothing will be agreed until it is all agreed,"
said Mr. Morrow, who is often in Iraq as a legal
consultant to the constitutional process. Major
horse-trading is expected among Sunni, Kurd and
Shi'ite factions concerning key ministries.
SCIRI officials say senior ministry posts -- such as
interior -- will remain in Shi'ite hands, while
junior ministries would be parceled out among the
minority Kurds and Sunnis.
U.S. officials see a new government as a
prerequisite to quelling the Sunni-backed
insurgency.
But Mr. Morrow cautioned that the deep Sunni
antagonism to the new government of Iraq will not be
resolved simply by seeing the people they voted for
holding ministerial posts.
"Their anxiety is more deep-seated," he said. "It is
based on the construction of the Iraqi state and on
Sunni Arabs not getting their share of the oil
revenues."
A SCIRI official, speaking on the condition of
anonymity, agreed that tough negotiations are ahead.
"The ministerial position distribution will be OK,
but federalism and oil -- these are the obstacles in
the road," he said in a telephone interview.
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