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Kurds warn against delaying Kirkuk
referendum 18.12.2006
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NEW YORK,
December 14,-- As 2007 approaches, one of the more
contentious issues in Iraq looks likely to come to
the fore: the status of the oil-rich city of Kirkuk.
In the Iraqi Constitution approved by the Shi'a and
Kurds, Article 140 calls for a three-step process to
normalize Kirkuk by reversing the "Arabization"
policy implemented under former Iraqi President
Saddam Hussein.
Upon completion of the normalization process, which
has seen thousands of Kurds return to the city and
it surroundings, a census and referendum is to take
place sometime in 2007 to determine whether or not
Kirkuk will be assimilated into the semi-autonomous
Kurdish region.
However, as Iraq prepares itself for what is
expected to be a difficult and sensitive process,
the recommendations by the U.S. Iraq Study Group and
increased warnings by Turkey to postpone the
referendum have alarmed Kurdish leaders. Kurdish
officials have recently issued warnings that any
postponement of the referendum could plunge the
relatively peaceful Kurdish north into chaos.
Kurds Fear Another Betrayal
The Iraq Study Group described the Kirkuk situation
as a "powder keg" and recommended that the
referendum planned for 2007 be delayed. Kurdish
leaders reacted angrily and assailed the group's
recommendation, calling it an affront to Iraq's
sovereignty, particularly since the Kirkuk
referendum is enshrined in the constitution
"The issue of Kirkuk will be resolved in accordance
with the Iraqi Constitution Article 140.
Consequently, this constitutional question will be
resolved by the Iraqis themselves. No one can
interfere in that," Iraqi Deputy Prime Minister
Barham Salih said in a December 9 statement on the
Patriotic Union of Kurdistan website.
The Iraq Study Group's recommendations concerning
Kirkuk have awakened the Kurds' fear of betrayal.
The Kurds have been enthusiastic supporters of the
U.S.-led invasion of Iraq and the removal of the
Hussein regime. In fact, the Kurdish north has been
the only region in the country where U.S. soldiers
do not regularly face hostile actions. The Kurds
believe that by supporting the U.S. effort in Iraq,
they in turn will be given the opportunity to take
back what is rightfully theirs, the semi-autonomous
north with Kirkuk, and its massive oil fields, as
its crown jewel.
Therefore, for the United States to even suggest
postponing the resolution of Kirkuk's status reminds
the Kurds of the last time they felt betrayed by
U.S. promises. In the aftermath of the 1991 Gulf
War, the United States called on Iraq's Kurds and
Shi'a to rebel against Hussein's rule, and promised
U.S. support that never came. The rebellion was
crushed by the Iraqi Army, and millions of Kurds
abandoned their cities and villages and sought
refuge along the Turkish and Iranian borders.
Indeed, Iraqi President Jalal Talabani directly
referred to this incident when reacting to the Iraq
Study Group report. "We smell in this report the
attitude of James Baker in the aftermath of the war
in Kuwait," he said, referring to the U.S. decision
not to assist the Kurds during the rebellion nor to
overthrow Hussein when Baker was secretary of state
under former President George Bush.
Tensions Rise With Turkey
On December 10, at a conference held by the
International Institute of Strategic Studies in
Manama, Bahrain, Turkish Defense Minister Vecdi
Gonul said Kirkuk's future status carried
significant implications for Turkey, AP reported on
December 11. In addition, he called on Iraq's
government to avoid imposing an "unrealistic" future
on Kirkuk, a veiled threat that Turkey would not sit
idly by and watch the city fall under the control of
the Kurds.
In response, Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari,
a Kurd, warned Turkey not to meddle in Iraq's
internal affairs.
"You speak of Kirkuk as if it is a Turkish city.
These are matters for Iraq to decide," he said.
Turkey has repeatedly expressed its unease over the
Iraqi Kurds' bid to annex Kirkuk, which the Turks
believe could form the foundation for a strong
economy that could eventually fund the Iraqi Kurds'
bid to establish an independent Kurdish state.
Ankara fears that a Kurdish state would become a
focal point of Kurdish nationalism and incite its
own Kurdish population to seek autonomy.
Threats Of Secession, War
Ghafur Makhmuri, a member of the Kurdish regional
parliament, told "The Kurdish Globe" on December 12
that if the recommendations by the Iraq Study Group
concerning the fate of Kirkuk are implemented, then
the Kurds might be forced to secede from Iraq.
"The part of the report that calls for postponing
the implementation of the constitutional Article
[140] on Kirkuk will lead to an explosive situation
in the country," Makhmuri said.
Secession by the Kurds would present a disastrous
scenario that could ignite a regional conflict.
Iraq's fragmentation would greatly increase the
likelihood of Turkish military intervention, not
only to prevent its own Kurdish population from
seceding, but also to protect northern Iraq's
Turkoman population, who are ethnic Turks.
More bluntly, the president of the Kurdish regional
government, Mas'ud Barzani, warned that if Article
140 was ever deferred, then the region would plunge
into war, Kurdistan Satellite Television reported on
December 9.
"If there ever would be serious strife, it would
happen then. If there ever would be a bloody war, an
organized and a determined war, it would only take
place then, and only then would it [the situation]
become dangerous,"
Barzani said.
rferl org
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