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Preventing Genocide in Iraq, dividing the
country is the only viable option
29.11.2006
[Opinion] |
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The political pressures
in Iraq are pushing the Kurds towards independence,
says Dlawer Ala'Aldeen. Dividing the country between
Kurds, Shiites and Sunnis is the only viable option.
November
29, 2006
To prevent genocide in Iraq on the scale of the
genocide in Rwanda between the Tutsis and the Hutus,
the Bush administration must move swiftly to divide
Iraq into three main self-rule entities with loose
federal ties. Neither the insurgency nor the
sectarian killing will end unless the Sunnis can
govern themselves. The Bush administration must use
every ounce of leverage it has to push for such a
solution before it is too late.
To end the carnage the Bush administration must
address the root causes behind the ever escalating
civil war which has swept Iraq. The sooner the
administration stops pushing for a western-style
democracy and in that context the preservation of
the so-called democratic national unity government,
the sooner it will stop the fast approaching
precipice. Moreover, it must, by now, be clear to
the Bush administration that there is no military
solution. No Iraqi or American forces will be able
to end the insurgency or disarm the numerous
militias. The violence will continue to rage because
for the Sunnis it has become a matter of survival
itself. The history of Iraq and the relationship
between the main factions, the Sunnis, Shiites and
Kurds make the option of creating three separate
entities the only viable option that will end to the
violence and here is why:
First, the history of hatred and animosity between
the Shiite and the Sunnis in Iraq predates the
current conflict; it goes back centuries but it has
been steadily intensifying following the creation of
modern Iraq in 1922. The Shiites have suffered
unimaginable oppression and abuse by the Sunni
minority, especially under the ruthless reign of
Saddam Hussein. Revenge and retribution have become
engrained in the culture and there is practically
nothing the administration can do to change it.
Second, having held power in Iraq from the day of
its inception, the Sunnis have not accepted the fact
that they are a minority and may never regain power
again. Sitting in a coalition government where the
Shiite majority can railroad any legislation they
wish makes the Sunnis feel complicit in their own
political demise. Sooner or later they will
permanently walk away and regardless of how much
pressure the Bush administration brings to bear to
keep the government together, the current Iraqi
coalition will not last.
Third, the indiscriminate killing and the brutality
inflicted on each other has virtually destroyed any
vestiges of civility and trust between the two
sides. The fight for survival itself became the
motivation and therefore all means to ensure
survival, especially for the Sunnis, have become
justified. Moreover, fearing for their lives, a
self-imposed sectarian separation became routine in
mixed areas in Baghdad and elsewhere where hundreds
of thousands relocated to safer areas to live with
their own brethren, creating de-facto all-Sunni or
all-Shiite enclaves.
Iraq is already divided. The Kurds have been
enjoying complete self-rule for the past 15 years
and they are not about to surrender what they have
gained in blood. Notwithstanding their majority
status, the Shiites are moving toward establishing
their own independent provinces and are determined
to hold fast to the oil beneath their land in the
south. In any case, the Iraqi constitution allows
for the creation of independent provinces,
permitting each group to enact their own laws and
build their own institutions.
The only way the Sunnis will accept their minority
status is if they can govern themselves with a
guaranteed equitable share of oil or its revenue.
Only an economically viable and politically
independent Sunni entity will provide the Sunnis the
assurances they need to give up the fight.
Otherwise, however dim the prospect of winning may
be, they will continue to battle the Shiites because
they see no other viable option. The artificial
political arrangement the Bush administration has
pursued to politically co-opt the Sunnis has done
nothing to change the psychological disposition
between the Shiite and Sunnis which was nurtured by
decades, nay centuries, of acrimony, hostility and
distrust.
As it considers a new course of action in Iraq, the
Bush administration must realize that Iraq has been
broken along fault lines that have always been there
but the administration willfully ignored. The
unfolding carnage reflects not only the current
tragic state of affairs but it should indicate how
much worse the situation will be if the
administration stubbornly clings to the notion that
there can be a different outcome.
Not all Sunnis would settle for a much smaller piece
of the pie, but then again, they can be made to
understand the pitfalls of the unending violence.
The army, the police and all other internal security
forces are dominated by the Shiites and buttressed
from within and outside by several Shiite militias,
making reversal of fortune for the Sunnis extremely
unlikely. Dividing Iraq with loose federal ties will
provide the Sunnis and the Shiites the same
condition that exists for the Kurds: the opportunity
to lead their lives as they see fit and cooperate
under federal settings where cooperation benefits
them.
The Bush administration has been warned time and
again before and after the war about the unintended
consequences of the Iraq war, but paid no heed and
remained stuck in a failed policy. Iraq has
disintegrated and genocide of unimaginable scale
looms high. The Bush administration must act
immediately to prevent that from happening before it
is too late.
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