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Splitting Iraq into three- solution or
fresh nightmare?
24.10.2006
By Gerri Peev |
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October 24, 2006,
US MILITARY planners
believe that to help quell sectarian violence, Iraq
could be divided into three broad ethnic regions:
Kurds in the north, Sunnis to the west of Baghdad
and Shias in the south.
Q: How would a split work, both in ethnic terms and
geographically?
A: US military planners believe that to help quell
sectarian violence, Iraq could be divided into three
broad ethnic regions: Kurds in the north, Sunnis to
the west of Baghdad and Shias in the south.
However, the country is not as neatly divided along
ethnic grounds as some strategists would like to
believe. For example, the capital is already seeing
forced relocation of ethnic groups such as Sunnis -
who once lived peacefully next to their Shia
neighbours east of the Tigris - who are now moving
west.
And more than half of Iraq's 26 million citizens
live in just four cities; three of those have an
ethnic mix.
Q: Why are these plans being considered now?
A: They are not new. As early as 2002, before the
invasion, the US vice-president, Dick Cheney, and
deputy defence secretary, Paul Wolfowitz, were
drawing up plans for the break-up of Iraq. Their
vision involved joining the Sunni west with pro-US
Jordan into one large Hashemite kingdom.
US military bases could secure the oil-rich areas of
the Shia south and Kurdish north. But the continued
presence of western forces could exacerbate tensions
in a divided Iraq.
New but similar plans are being floated by James
Baker, the former US secretary of state, who is
advising President George Bush. Republicans are
facing continuing political pressure at home over
the heavy US casualties in the run-up to the
November mid-term elections.
Q: What would be the likely impact on the country if
it were to be split into three?
A: The plans mooted by Mr Baker would impose a
federalised structure and more devolution to the
regions.
However, it would involve large-scale displacement
because of Iraq's jumbled ethnic divide. Middle East
experts have almost universally predicted spiralling
violence if Iraq were to be carved up. The Iraqi
army, security services and police would have to be
disbanded and reformed along sectarian lines.
The military is largely Shiite with a significant
number of Kurds while the ministry of interior
forces are largely Shiite, and the police are mixed.
Given the lessons from the aftermath of the
invasion, disbanding these services would lead to a
vacuum that would be filled by local militia. This
would trigger even more localised violence within
the three regions.
Experts predict that daily life would become even
more dangerous and the road to political and
economic recovery would be made even longer.
Q: What would be the impact on the region and wider
world?
A: Dr Mai Yamani, a regional expert at the Chatham
House think tank, said a divided Iraq would have a
"domino effect" on the rest of the region.
"The implications for other nations including new
states such as Saudi Arabia, which was unified in
1932, would be severe," she said. "We could have the
splintering of states and change throughout the
region."
Pro-US governments would also be vulnerable to
populist or Islamist uprisings, she added.
Syria, Iran and Turkey would all object to an
emboldened Kurdish state, fearing an uprising of
Kurds in their own countries. Meanwhile, Egypt,
Saudi Arabia and Jordan could be left to prop up the
Sunnis, who, having no oil fields of their own,
would be left struggling to find an alternative
economy. This poverty would fuel political tensions
and possibly deliver Sunnis into the hands of
terrorists.
There would be a struggle between Shia factions
about who would take control of the oil-rich south,
particularly Basra.
Experts warn that overall, the division would hamper
the war on terrorism.
scotsman com
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