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Analysis: Will U.S. sell out Kurds again?
5.10.2006
By LAURA HEATON |
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WASHINGTON, --
President George Bush pledged U.S. support for
anti-terrorism efforts in Turkey, but concrete U.S.
action seems a remote possibility, given America's
split allegiances in the region.
"Our desire is ... to help people who care about a
peaceful future to reject radicalism and extremism,"
Bush said at a joint press conference with Turkish
Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan after their
private meeting at the White House Monday.
Although Bush and Erdogan reaffirmed their
collective efforts to combat terrorism, neither
spoke specifically about threats posed by what
Turkey sees as its prime terrorist organization, the
Kurdistan Workers' Party, or PKK. The paramilitary
group has been fighting for an independent Kurdish
state at the intersection of Turkey, Syria, Iraq and
Iran for the past two decades.
"Neither (leader) wanted to focus on an issue they
knew they wouldn't be able to resolve," said Vali
Nasr, an adjunct senior fellow at the Council on
Foreign Relations in California. "The goal of the
meeting was to heal relations between Washington and
Ankara ... so they chose to not focus on differences
of opinion on Iraq."
The Turkish government has accused the PKK of
perpetrating attacks on Turkish police, security
forces and for targeting tourist areas. Turkey
claims that the leadership of the PKK has taken
refuge just over the border in Kurdistan (northern
Iraq), and that guerrillas are indoctrinated in and
operate from these camps.
Washington views the PKK as a terrorist organization
but has been reluctant to aggressively pursue
terrorists in the region.
"The United States doesn't have the ability or the
forces to go into northern Iraq, the only relatively
stable region of the country ... and push some 5,000
(PKK) fighters out of Iraq," Nasr said. "Nor would
this option be politically favorable."
The United States is wary of any offensive that
might alienate the Iraqi Kurdish population, the
group most supportive of U.S. presence in Iraq. The
United States has a long history of favorable
relations with Kurdish nationals, beginning as early
as 1919 when U.S. President Woodrow Wilson favored
an independent Kurdistan at the end of World War I.
"Kurds are supportive because the United States has
offered them protection for a long time, covered up
the Kurdish uprising of 1991 and provided air cover
over Iraqi Kurdistan, for example," explained Edmund
Ghareeb, a professor at American University and
author of "The Kurdish Question."
Citing increased terrorist activity, Turkey recently
threatened to use military strikes to quell the
terrorist movement coming from northern Iraq. The
U.S. government immediately warned against such
action.
A military offensive against the PKK would "create a
whole new environment, a lot of instability, and a
lot of unknown factors in this very explosive area,"
Ghareeb said.
Addressing the likelihood that Turkey would take
forceful steps against the PKK in the near future,
Nasr said, "The PKK is a major irritant, but not
significant enough to stage an attack (in northern
Iraq) and put Turkey at odds with Washington."
The United States and Turkey recently appointed
envoys to work to resolve the situation, but it
remains to be seen whether the move was something
more substantial than an attempt by Washington to
placate the Turkish authorities.
"(The) United States is very sympathetic to the
Turkish problem with the PKK, but won't be able to
act definitively," Nasr said.
At the joint press conference, Prime Minister
Erdogan thanked Bush for supporting Turkey's bid to
join the European Union. "The United States is a
strategic partner, a very important strategic
partner for Turkey," Erdogan said.
But in light of the dismal state of U.S. efforts in
Iraq, the Bush administration may be the one looking
to Turkey for support.
"Turkey is an important ally of the United States
because it is militarily strong, a member of NATO,
has a relatively strong economy ... and (Ankara) has
generally been a friendly government," Ghareeb said.
Turkey's favorable relations with a number of
important actors in the region suggest that it could
be a significant mediating force, particularly in
post-war Iraq and in dealing with Iran's nuclear
ambitions.
Given the balance of powers that any dramatic
assertion of allegiance might upset, the United
States will likely do little to change the status
quo in U.S.-Kurdish and U.S.-Turkish relations. If
the situation changes, however, what Ghareeb called
"a general suspicion among the Kurdish population"
may prove true once again.
"If the United States has to choose between the
Kurds and the Turks, it will choose the Turks," he
said.
UPI
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