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With last month’s Iraq
elections and the dawning of a new year, the hope
existed that the violent insurgency would wind down
since the three major ethnic and religious groups
voted in large numbers. However, as the facts last
week demonstrated, the need for a new plan on how to
govern is sorely needed.
The idea of a democratic, stable Iraq seems further
away now than it had before the most recent
elections. The call for American troop withdrawals
comes at a time when civil war is not a distant
possibility, but looks more and more like a clear
probability.
One solution to prevent a possible civil war is to
create three, semi-independent states under a weak
federal government similar to the split of power
implemented in Bosnia. Iraq will not survive as a
republic with limited local power and a strong
central government in Baghdad. A three-person
presidency in Baghdad with limited oversight over
the rest of the country would serve a greater
purpose than that of a strong central government.
A major reason for this need of semi-independent
states is that Kurdistan in the north of Iraq gained
de-facto independence in 1991 and has had a
relatively stable government for the past 15 years.
However, if Kurdistan became a fully independent
state, it would bring with it another slew of
unanswered questions. The Kurds have sizeable
communities in Turkey, Iran and Syria, and none of
these governments have shown any support for an
independent Kurdistan. The threat of invasion by
Turkey would be a distinct possibility if full
independence is achieved.
Creating a loose union of independent states within
Iraq would allow for a system which, while not
perfect, would allow for more freedom than a strong
central government.
To understand the current problems faced in Iraq,
one must also look at the creation of Iraq in 1921
by the British occupation forces. After the fall of
the Ottoman Empire at the end of World War I,
Britain occupied Iraq and after a bloody insurgency,
created Iraq out of the three Ottoman provinces. The
reason for this creation was not that these three
provinces wanted to be united, but they were united
due to the fact that they were all British
possessions. This unwillingness toward unification
should be taken into account.
Today, the main issues facing Iraq are not
long-standing ethnic or religious conflicts. The
very basics of life are still the main problems
facing many Iraqis. The need for a stable economy, a
fair justice system and domestic security are the
most necessary conditions for peace in Iraq. These
can be achieved faster and more effectively by
implementing regional autonomous governments than a
central government.
Iraq will find peace once the needs of its citizens
are taken into account. Three republics must be able
to take care of these needs while also respecting
one another. A strong central government in Baghdad
would inevitably be run by one of the three major
ethnic groups, most likely the Shiites, given the
recent election results. Ethnic animosities could be
used to deny major segments of the Iraqi population
a stable and peaceful life.
Instead of advocating for a strong central
government in Baghdad, the United States should
advocate for a united Iraq similar to Bosnia. After
the breakup of Yugoslavia in 1991, Bosnia plunged
into a civil war, which killed an estimated 200,000
people across the region and displaced many more
from their homes.
At the Dayton Accords in 1995, the United States was
able to negotiate the end of the civil war. Part of
the agreement created two republics inside a united
Bosnia, the SerbRepublic and the Muslim/Croatian
republic.
More than 10 years later, Bosnia has been steadily
rebuilt and has been mostly free of any major
violence. An unlikely compromise created a situation
in which Bosnia now has relative peace and can look
forward to applying European Union membership within
the next decade as well as formally uniting the
republic under a central government.
A loose federation of sovereign states in Iraq will
allow the nation to rebuild, reconstruct, and heal
the wounds of a bloody insurgency. While not
perfect, three autonomous regions would allow for
the reconstruction to become more effective and
accomplish its goal of improving the lives of Iraqi
citizens more rapidly.
Once these needs are taken care of and peace is
enjoyed, then issues of unification should be
discussed. Creating a unified Iraq must come
willingly from the Iraqi people, and not be imposed
by a central government or foreign powers.
In order to look toward the future, we must learn
from the mistakes made in the past and improve upon
them.
www.spectator-online.com
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