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The results are in: now the real struggle
for power begins
21.1.2006
By James Hider
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IRAQ’S new leaders were
squaring off last night for weeks, if not months, of
tough political bargaining after final election
results revealed that the dominant Shia theocratic
alliance had failed to secure an absolute majority
and that the marginalised Sunni groups had made
substantial political gains.
The Shia United Iraqi Alliance, which dominated the
outgoing transitional parliament, won 128 out of 275
seats up for grabs, which will force it to share
power, most likely with the Kurdish coalition that
secured 55 seats.
Even as the parliamentary blocks of both Shias and
Kurds were reduced, the political muscle of the
Sunnis received a major boost, a development that
Western officials hope will entice disenfranchised
Sunnis into the political mainstream and away from
the insurgency.
The main Sunni alliance, the National Accord Front,
won 44 seats, while another block garnered 11,
making them a powerful force in the new political
landscape. Sunnis held only 17 seats in the previous
assembly.
The biggest loser of the elections was Ahmed Chalabi,
the former Pentagon favourite whose faulty
intelligence sparked the invasion. Out of favour
with the US, the slick former banker ditched his
secularist image and ran in the last elections with
Shia conservatives to win a deputy prime minister’s
post. This time, he ran alone and did not win a
seat. |
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Secularists backed by the US fared badly. Led by
Iyad Allawi, the former prime minister, they won
only 25 seats.
Political leaders acknowledge that with more players
in the arena, many with contradictory goals,
negotiations to form a viable government against a
backdrop of deepening violence will be a major
challenge.
“This time it will be difficult,” said Hoshyar
Zebari, the Kurdish Foreign Minister, who predicted
that bartering for key Cabinet posts could drag on
to the end of next month. Adel Abdul Mahdi, the Shia
Vice-President tipped as a possible Prime Minister,
has said that it could take until April. |
Election Results :
Official
United Iraqi Alliance (Shi'ite) 128 seats
Kurdistan Coalition 53 seats
Iraqi Accordance Front (Sunni) 44 seats
Iraqi National List (Allawi -- secular) 25 seats
National Dialogue Front (Sunni) 11 seats
Kurdistan Islamic Union 5 seats
National Reconciliation and Liberation Bloc (Sunni)
3 seats
Risaliyun (Shi'ite, Sadr movement) 2 seats
Al-Rafidayn (Mesopotamia) Party (Christian) 1 seat
Iraqi Turkoman Front 1 seat
Iraqi Nation List (Mithal al-Alusi - Sunni) 1 seat
Yazidi movement 1 seat
TOTAL 275 |
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The first challenge will be to muster a two-thirds
majority in parliament to nominate a presidency
council, consisting of president and two deputies.
They, in turn, will name a premier to form a
Cabinet. The unwieldy process was instituted by the
Americans to prevent any single ethnic group from
steamrollering its rivals in the early days of Iraqi
democracy.
The Shia alliance and the Kurds are widely expected
to reunite in their existing coalition, but that
will still leave them just short of the two-thirds
mark. They could draw on several of the smaller
groups to pass the threshold, but the Kurds have
insisted that, in common with many Western
officials, they want to form a broad national unity
government that includes the Sunnis.
One key difficulty lies in the Shias and Kurds
having core aims — federalism and the regional
distribution of oil wealth — that are sharply at
odds with the Sunnis, who believe the loose
federalism being proposed will break up Iraq. The
Shia alliance wants to emulate in the oil-rich Shia
south the northern Kurdish autonomous region.
Sunnis, who have no oil in their desert region of
western Iraq, strongly oppose the idea.
Despite Sunni accusations of widespread electoral
fraud, informal talks have begun between the main
Sunni block and the Kurds over the formation of a
consensus government. Many observers believe that
the Sunnis could be offered the defence portfolio to
secure their collaboration.
“Now we are part of the election and we have seats
in the National Assembly, so we have the right now
to nominate a number of candidates to various posts,
but we’ll be a major part in negotiating the agenda
of the government,” Tariq al-Hashemi, of the
National Accord Front, said.
THE MAIN POWER BLOCS
United Iraqi Alliance 128 seats, down 18. Shia
coalition dominated by clerics and religious
conservatives, many with close ties to Iran, and
backed by powerful militias. Led by Supreme Council
for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq. Also includes
Islamist group Dawa, Iraq’s oldest Shia party, which
fought Saddam Hussein’s Iraq in 1980s, and loyalists
of Hojestoleslam Moqtada al-Sadr, who led uprisings
against the US military and the 2004 secular
government it installed in 2004
Kurdish Coalition 53 seats, down 20. Comprises
Kurdistan’s two dominant parties, the Kurdish
Democratic Union (KDP) of Masoud Barzani and the
Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), led by Jalal
Talabani, the outgoing Iraqi president. Kingmakers
in the new parliament, the secular Kurds want a
loose federal status
National Accord Front 44 seats, boycotted last
election. Main Sunni block comprising three
nationalist and religiously conservative parties.
Led by Adnan al-Dulaimi. Observers hope Sunni
participation will help to stem the Sunni-led
insurgency, but opposition to federalism a problem
www.timesonline.co.uk
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