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The
best way to deal with the future of Iraq is to
partition the country and manage it ourselves,
International Relations Professor Chaim Kaufmann
said Tuesday.
“This is the option that will save the most lives
and will blacken our reputation the most, but there
is no political consistancy for it,” Kaufmann said.
Kaufmann said this ideal scenario will never occur.
The three factions of Iraq are the Shiites, Sunnis
and Kurds. In addition to war with the United
States, there has been a civil war between these
communities. The Shiites and Kurds want to drive out
the Sunnis and take control, Kaufman said.
According to Kaufmann, the Shiites are no longer
interested in reaching an agreement with the Sunnis
and decided on a constitution that was convenient to
them.
“Increasingly, the ethnic war that is underneath
this has been coming to the surface,” Kaufmann said.
Kaufmann said another possibility in the future of
Iraq is to continue as before, which has not shown
previous success.
“There is an obvious need for a major change in our
strategy, and I hope we do,” Kaufmann said.
Kafmann said the United States must learn that its
tactic of search-and-destroy missions will not work.
He said we must instead clear and hold territory and
population and not allow guerillas to come back.
This can not be done unless we arm the Iraqi army
more heavily, Kaufmann said.
“Increasingly our efforts are becoming irrelevant,”
Kaufmann said. “We are not making any progress in
undercutting support of rebellion.”
He said he believes this option will only last until
we are inevitably asked to leave.
His third possibility is to leave quickly and
orderly, which he said will still cause the Sunnis
to lose the war. Iraq will then accept help from
Iran, which will be more brutal than the United
States, he said.
Kaufmann said the major disadvantage of this option
is that Iraq will become a client of Iran, which
will make American’s future relations with them
difficult.
Kaufmann’s fourth option is to arm and train the
Shiites army so that it is capable of securing Sunni
areas in Iraq. This will require money and manpower
and will most likely be at least two years before
they can fight, he said.
Kaufmann said this will result in a huge instance of
ethnic cleansing, which large areas being turned
into prison camps. He estimated the cleansing will
generate nearly three million refugees with no where
to go, unless most are killed.
It is likely many deaths will occur, but they will
not be directly on the hands of the United States,
Kaufmann said.
“The only advantage is that it makes the new Shiites
Iraq a client of us instead of Iran,” Kaufmann said.
Eugene Golant, ’06, said, the briefing solidified
his opinion on Iraq.
Golant said. “I guess at this point arming the
Shiites is the best way, I think the best way is to
salvage what you can. It depends on if you are
looking at this from a moral standpoint. I don’t
think this is a good option but our only option.”
www.bw.lehigh.edu
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