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CAIRO, Egypt - Iraq's Sunni Arabs are mobilizing
opposition to the draft constitution ahead of an
Oct. 15 referendum, showing that the disquieted
minority that forms the backbone of the insurgency
is now taking part in the U.S.-backed political
process.
Despite that silver lining, the constitution vote
three weeks from now still carries the potential to
further destabilize Iraq, no matter which way it
goes. Approval may prove a pill too bitter for Sunni
Arabs to swallow, but rejection could throw the
political process back a year and complicate
America's exit strategy.
Either outcome is likely to fuel the insurgency and
many fear that sectarian violence will grow.
Sunni Arab tribal leaders and clerics meeting in
Amman, Jordan, said this weekend they were confident
of mobilizing their communities to vote "no" in the
referendum. But defeating the constitution could
prove more difficult than they think, given majority
Shiite support for the charter.
One senior Kurdish politician and lawmaker, Mahmoud
Othman, put an optimistic twist on the Sunni
comments.
"The mere fact that our Sunni Arab brothers are
taking part in the vote is a positive," he said. "A
boycott would have been a negative."
But the International Crisis Group, a respected
Brussels-based think tank, warned Sunday that the
constitutional dispute could push the country toward
"full-scale civil war."
It said, however, the draft was likely to be adopted
on Oct. 15, despite Sunni Arab opposition, and
called on the United States, to intervene to secure
an agreement.
"If the U.S. fails to play this role, the
constitution is adopted on 15 October and a
government is elected ... without a strong political
agreement underpinning its legitimacy, descent into
civil war and disintegration, with mass expulsions
in areas of mixed population, could well become a
reality," the report warned.
Iraq has repeatedly moved to the brink of civil war
since the U.S.-led invasion in 2003, a result of
bombings and assassinations targeting Shiites.
However, historic and marital bonds between its
three main groups - the Shiite Arabs, the Sunni
Arabs and the mainly Sunni Kurds - have proved to be
the country's best safety valve.
But violence in recent months has taken a distinctly
sectarian character, with tit-for-tat killings
between Sunnis and Shiites.
The referendum is a key step in a 22-month political
process outlined in an interim charter agreed to in
March 2004. If adopted, it will be the basis for a
general election to be held by Dec. 15 to chose
Iraq's first full-term democratic government.
Sunni Arabs, the dominant sect under Saddam Hussein,
say the draft does not assert Iraq's Arab identity
in strong enough terms. And they worry that its
federalist character could lead to the breakup of
the country into a Shiite south and a Kurdish north,
leaving them in central Iraq with little more than
isolated farmlands surrounded by expansive deserts.
If a simple nationwide majority or a two-thirds
majority in three of Iraq's 18 provinces vote "no,"
the draft will be rejected, parliament will be
dissolved and another parliament elected to start
drawing up a new constitution.
The Iraqi Islamic Party, the country's largest Sunni
Arab political organization, already has rejected
the draft and called on Iraqis to reject it.
Sunni Arabs make up 15-20 percent of Iraq's
estimated 26 million people and are believed to be
the majority in four of Iraq's 18 provinces. They
also include a segment that doesn't want to
legitimize the political process by taking part in
the referendum and may prefer to stay home on Oct.
15.
However, three of the four provinces - Ninevah,
Salahuddin and Diyala - also have sizable Shiite and
Kurdish communities among their combined population
of some 5 million.
Insurgent groups have threatened to use violence
against Iraqis who take part in the referendum. A
similar threat in the run-up to the Jan. 30
election, coupled with a boycott call from an
influential Sunni group, kept most Sunni Arabs away
from the polls.
Shiites and Kurds ignored the threats and voted and
are likely do the same on Oct. 15.
Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, according to two
members of his inner circle, has called on Iraqis to
vote 'yes,' something that is certain to generate a
high Shiite turnout.
AP
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