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Despite all the recent frantic attempts at
Constitution-making, Iraq is not a state anymore. It
is difficult for the US government, as well as for
the international community, to realize this, but
the earlier this sinks in, the better the chances
for a realistic approach which could give the people
in Iraq a chance for a more peaceful future.
Ever since Iraq has been cobbled together by British
imperial dreamers in the 1920's from three very
disparate provinces of the old Ottoman Empire, the
only way to hold it together was by brutal force.
The British vested power in the Baghdad-based Sunni
Arab minority; the Kurdish minority in the north, as
well as the Shi'ite majority in the south, were
virtually excluded from power. Consequently, all
Iraqi governments were faced with recurring
mutinies: by the Kurds, by the Shi'ites, even by the
small Christian Assyrian community.
Saddam Hussein's regime was only the most brutal of
all Sunni Arab minority regimes in Iraq, and this is
why Iraq has always been the most repressive Arab
regime.
The end of Saddam Hussein also toppled this Sunni
Arab minority rule; the current mayhem in Iraq is
mainly the work of Sunni Arabs trying to abort any
alternative government. The sophistication, logistic
precision and overall planning of the terrorist
attacks, as well as the apparent availability of
hundreds of suicide bombers, cars and explosives all
point to a well-prepared campaign, based on the
human and material resources of Saddam's old regime.
It is obvious that the Kurds, who have enjoyed de
facto autonomy since the early 1990's, protected by
the Allied "No Fly Zone", are not going to accept
being subjected to Sunni Arab rule. The Kurdish
[Kurdistan] Regional Government runs a more or less
successful administration; for a decade, schools in
the area teach in Kurdish, not in Arabic; a de facto
arrangement allows the Kurdish [Kurdistan]
authorities to use oil revenues in the area to pay
for impressive development projects. Given their
terrible experience in the past, the Kurds [people
of Kurdistan] will only accept the kind of federal
structure which guarantees them effective control
over their own affairs, including maintaining their
own armed forces.
Similarly, the Shi'ites are not going to accept
Sunni hegemony anymore, and the brutal terrorist
attempts of the Sunni insurgents against Shi'ite
shrines only strengthen their resolves to insist on
a Shi'ite autonomous region in the south, similar to
the Kurdish [Kurdistan] area in the north.
The Sunnis rightly realize that unless they succeed
in re-conquering their power by brutal force, they
are doomed to minority status – something which is
alien to the Sunni Arab tradition. Hence the Sunni
boycott of the elections and the attempt of the
Sunni terrorist to frighten any moderate Sunni ready
to cooperate in setting up a democratic Iraq.
Constitutional phraseology is not a remedy for these
conundrums.
When the Soviet Union and Yugoslavia were on the
verge of collapse along their ethnic lines, the
administration of Bush Sr. urged the maintenance of
the existing structures: it failed dismally. Iraq
may now be going the way of Yugoslavia, yet the US
government does not wish to recognize this obvious
fact. What is failing in Iraq is not only the
attempt to build democracy, but the very attempt to
keep the country together.
There is no way of putting Humpty-Dumpty together
again. The Kurds and the Shi'ites will go their
separate ways, and both entities have the para-military
capability to do so: there is no Iraqi army capable
of maintaining the unity of the country. And just as
in the former Yugoslavia, the separate countries –
Slovenia, Croatia, Serbia – have a better chance of
creating coherent and democratic systems than the
old coercive Yugoslavia, the same may apply to Iraq.
The US will obviously have to change its policy over
Iraq – maybe this is what President Bush is devoting
his vacation to. It would be advisable to think
outside the box and realize that Iraq is not a
country anymore: this is not the end of the world,
but it calls for courageous and creative thinking
about alternatives.
The author is professor of political science at
the Hebrew University of Jerusalem.
www.jpost.com
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