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BAGHDAD - It is crunch time for the drafters of
Iraq's constitution, and one question above all has
stymied them: whether Kurds and Shiites should
control their own regions and the oil money they
generate.
On Sunday, transitional National Assembly officials
argued about whether to seek a delay of the Aug. 15
deadline for completing the document to give them
more time to hash out such sticky issues.
The key, when it comes to Iraqi politics, is the
map. And what it shows is that in the Shiite Muslim
south and areas close to the Kurdish north lie vast
oil deposits worth billions of dollars per year. In
the center, where most Sunni Arabs live, lie sand
and scrub.
Although other issues remain under debate, including
the rights of women and the role of Islam, there is
only one that could provoke violent upheaval:
whether political power and oil revenue will be
controlled largely by a centralized national
government or by regional authorities.
"Women's rights are very important, of course, but
however they come out, it will not lead to civil
war. Other things are far more likely to do that …
and federalism is by far the hardest issue," said
Joost Hiltermann, director of the International
Crisis Group's office in Amman, Jordan, which tracks
Iraq.
Struggles for power between central and regional
governments have been at the core of some modern
nations' bloodiest wars. Countries such as the
former Yugoslavia and the Soviet Union fought
bitterly over the issue. The United States broke out
in civil war over states' rights in 1861. Local
autonomy often comes at a terrible price.
The Kurds have a head start in carving up the map,
having enjoyed semi-autonomy from Saddam Hussein's
Sunni-dominated regime under the protection of a
U.S.-enforced "no fly" zone. Kurdish leaders want
the constitution to ratify and strengthen that
autonomy by creating a federal system with strong
regional governments entitled to a proportion of
regionally derived oil income.
Most Shiite leaders, whose people suffered brutal
repression under Hussein, say it is only fair for
them to get the same autonomy as the Kurds so they
can create a comparable region in the south.
Sunnis strongly oppose such an arrangement. They
want more power to remain in the capital and money
to be distributed by the central government. That is
an arrangement over which they, as a minority, hope
to exercise more control.
Sunnis fear that if southern Iraq establishes a
Kurdish-style autonomy, eventually the country would
violently break apart, and they would be left with
little in the way of natural resources.
U.S. officials are also uneasy about an Iraq without
a strong center. They worry that because of Sunni
opposition to such an arrangement, it would worsen
rather than resolve civil strife, gradually drawing
in neighboring countries and fomenting trouble in
the region. Furthermore, the U.S. mantra has long
been a democratic, unified Iraq — not three de facto
countries.
"For the constitution to play the role that it
should play to facilitate Iraq's success, it has to
be a national compact among all Iraqi communities,"
said Zalmay Khalilzad, the new U.S. envoy. "It's
very important that the constitution is produced
through the participation of all Iraqis and that all
Iraqis see themselves in this picture that is
emerging…. This is important for ending and
defeating the insurgency."
Yet serious fractures are evident.
Two versions of the constitution were published in
Arabic newspapers last week that highlighted two
groups' distinct interests.
One draft, acceptable to many of the country's
Shiite leaders and to some Kurds, featured a
detailed section that would allow provinces to join
together to form semi-autonomous regions. Each would
be run by an assembly, a council and a president.
The budget would be financed by a combination of
grants from the central government and an
unspecified share of the region's resources,
enshrining in the constitution the right of local
governments to their natural resources.
Shiite leaders were especially attracted to an
explicit acknowledgment in this version that Islam
would be the primary source of Iraq's laws.
Another version, published in a Kurdish newspaper,
was the Kurds' dream constitution, all but making
their region an independent country. It would give
the regional governments sweeping powers. Under this
version, just 35% of natural-resource income would
be sent to Baghdad.
That version also would require regional governments
to approve laws passed by the National Assembly for
them to take effect. Kurds say they need such powers
to maintain their region's secular, Western
character — especially its progressive treatment of
women.
"The Kurds are not fundamentalist, they are
anti-Islamic form of government," said Nasreen
Berwari, a Kurd who is minister for municipalities
and public works. "The Kurds need to be very
careful, very persistent. They need … to be free to
take or not to take whatever law is applied" in the
rest of the country.
A third draft, written by some Sunni groups but not
yet published, would permit gradual decentralization
of power. It is unlikely to win approval from Kurds
or Shiites in part because the regions would have no
right to keep the income from their natural
resources. But it would allow significant regional
autonomy to be phased in over four years.
One increasingly likely scenario is that the
drafters, in their reluctance to confront the
difficult issue and force a compromise, will put in
vague language that defers the hard choices.
Iyad Allawi, the former prime minister, argued that
regional autonomy is so divisive that decisions
should be put off until after the next election,
when there will probably be more Sunnis and other
minorities in the National Assembly. Just over half
of eligible voters went to the polls in January, and
few Sunnis were among them.
"It's very clear right now, national unity is
jeopardized. National unity is not even possible
right now … because a lot of Iraqi people are not
part of the general assembly," Allawi said.
If the deadline were pushed back, animosities and
suspicions might fester, because no one would be
reconciled to a compromise. "These issues are not
going to get any easier six months from now," said a
Western diplomat, speaking on condition of
anonymity. "They need to put down on paper what they
want and start to make trades."
One problem inherent in the creation of
semi-autonomous regions is that Iraq's three major
groups are not neatly gathered in distinct parts of
the country. Several provinces have mixed
populations, and even those with a clear majority of
either Shiites or Kurds also have significant
numbers of minorities.
"There is the possibility that minorities would be
abused in these areas, and a great possibility of
external interference in those areas, and the
possibility that the political parties that will be
in control of politics there will have some links to
outside groups," said Iyad Samarrai, a Sunni member
of the constitutional panel, referring indirectly to
the Sunnis' fear that Iran will influence Shiite
political parties.
The two groups seeking to create autonomous regions
appear undeterred by the problems because the
potential gains are so attractive.
In Basra province, where Iraq's second-largest city
perches on the Tigris Delta, oil revenue exceeds $13
billion per year. Not surprisingly, provincial
officials would like to get their hands on some of
that money. They imagine repairing their water
systems, bringing electricity to impoverished
villages and building hospitals, among other things.
But the south has other priorities, including
uniting with neighboring provinces, which are bound
by Shiite faith and culture.
"As for the southern governorates, this might well
become one big region. There would be no limit on
the number of provinces that could join together.
It's fairly homogenous. The region is predominantly
Shia, but it would be up to the people to decide by
referendum," said Hussein Shahristani, one of two
deputy speakers in parliament and an influential
Shiite leader.
Unlike the Shiites, the Kurds need to expand their
region to ensure that the largest oil fields are
safely within their territory. They sit next to, but
not on top of, largely untapped reserves in the
Kirkuk region. So they keep redrawing the maps to
put Kirkuk within their borders.
Other Iraqis resent these efforts. But the Kurds,
who have displayed considerable toughness and
solidarity during the negotiations, say that
historically, Kirkuk was theirs. The area is so
ethnically mixed today, they say, only because
Hussein expelled thousands of Kurds, redrew the
provincial borders and paid Arabs to move in.
Reports are rife of kidnappings, random
imprisonments and even killings of Sunnis and
Turkmens, the two minority groups in the area. But
it is the large number of Kurds who have been
pouring back into the Kirkuk region, living in tent
villages, stadiums and camps, that have had the
biggest effect on local demographics.
The Kurds call it "normalization" of the population
and promise to hold a referendum when it is over to
see whether the residents want to join Kurdistan or
remain part of Arab Iraq. Few doubt that if such a
referendum were held, the residents, by then largely
ethnic Kurds, would vote to join Kurdistan.
For Iraq's Sunnis, it is difficult to see themselves
in this picture. Their "region" has little to
recommend it, yet they fear that those of their
people outside it will be marooned in largely Shiite
or Kurdish Iraq.
"If we believed in their goodwill, then we would not
mind if we had federalism, or whatever," said Sheik
Illiam Khalaf, secretary-general of the National
Dialogue Council, one of the Sunni groups with
representatives on the constitutional commission.
"But we are totally convinced that there are efforts
underway to divide Iraq … and there are people in
the Iraqi government willing to heed those calls."
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