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Rome, 24 August (AKI) - As the latest deadline
for the draft constitution to be presented to the
Iraqi parliament draws near, hopes of the Sunnis
agreeing to it are fading fast. The Shiites and
Kurds look set to go ahead and approve it, despite
warnings from Sunni representative Saleh al-Mutlek
that pushing through a constitution which allows the
creation of regional governments would spark civil
war in the country. One British expert on Iraq, Dr
Gareth Stansfield from the Institute of Arab and
Islamic Studies in Exeter, told Adnkronos
International (AKI) he wouldn't bet on a positive
outcome.
"You have to be very optimistic to say this is going
to work. It seems more sensible to say that there
are a lot of things that could go horribly wrong,"
said Stansfield, who is also an associate fellow at
the London-based Royal Institute of International
Affairs, now known as Chatham House.
On Tuesday prime minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari, from
Iraq's Shiite majority, declared himself "confident"
that the country's political leaders will reach
agreement, saying 151 of the 153 articles of the
constitution had already been agreed. But the Sunni
minority's fears of the principle of Kurdish
self-rule being extended to the rest of the country-
and thus allowing Shiites in the south to dominate
the oil wealth there, leading to the breaking up of
the country - appear insurmountable.
"There is always going to be a major community group
that will feel ostracised by the process,"
Stansfield told AKI. A two thirds majority voting
'no' in three of Iraq's 18 provinces would be enough
to send the constitution back to the drawing table.
He believes that if the Sunnis try but fail to
scupper the constitution when it goes to a
nationwide referendum on October 15, the ensuing
frustration will only feed the insurgency.
"The Sunnis are the ones in a very difficult
position and they're the ones with access to the
weaponry and insurgency, so the only way this
opposition can be expressed is through the
insurgency and I would fully expect that the guns
are turned on the government and the Shia [Shiites]
in particular," he told AKI.
Once the constitution is approved, and then passed
at the referendum stage it isn't hard to see how al-Mutlek's
civil war scenario would play out, Stansfield says.
"If successful then we are in a period when we will
see exit strategies being developed and timelines
for the coalition forces withdrawing," Stansfield
explained. "At that point we will see... state
security organisations being ultimately dominated by
the Shia militia, basically acting against the
insurgents, and we'll see the lines developing along
the lines of a sectarian conflict, without the
coalition forces there to keep them at bay."
Readily admitting he is pessimistic when it comes to
Iraq, Stansfield says the country's politicians are
already too far down the road to resolve their
problems with the current draft constitution.
"There's an unwritten aspect from the Shias that
they will dominate the state, the Sunnis want to
dominate the state again and the Kurds don't want to
be in the state," he said.
"I can't imagine how this is going to be resolved in
any way that preserves the territory of Iraq in a
peaceful way," he said, adding that is is more
likely to fragment in a dangerous way.
"The only way to keep the Kurds in the state is to
agree to their federal demands, or the next day they
would say they are not welcome in the Iraqi state
and demand self- determination," he said. Kurds
would however, realise the advantages of remaining
within a unitary state, as long as there are
political safeguards in place to assure they cannot
be persecuted again, as they were under Saddam
Hussein, Stansfield said.
Shiites on the other hand have seen the benefits of
making the south their own, leaving the Sunnis high
and dry in the middle.
And if no-one gets regional autonomy? "Without it,
the Kurds themselves might start a civil war," said
Stansfield.
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