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The Kurds Change Their Tactics
For Muslim Turkey, with its secular state structure
imposed from above, terrorist acts are not a rarity.
Islamic radicals or leftist extremists routinely
call attention to themselves with big explosions in
various parts of the country. However, the regime
sees Kurdish groups as its greatest threat, the most
important of these groups being the Kurdistan
Workers' Party (KWP). In 1984, the KWP proclaimed
the start of an armed struggle for the rights of
Kurds, who make up about 20 percent of Turkey's
population of 70 million. When Turkish special
forces captured KWP leader Abdulla Ocalan in 1999,
the group announced a unilateral ceasefire and its
willingness to start peace negotiations with Ankara.
But Ocalan was sentenced to life imprisonment; the
Turkish authorities did not enter into negotiations,
and last year the KWP declared an end to the truce
and a renewal of military operations.
The KWP is most active in southeastern Turkey, which
is populated by Kurds. The KWP leadership has long
threatened terrorist acts at Turkish resorts, in the
realization that this would deal a tangible blow to
the tourist industry. Explosions at resorts were
previously more of a demonstration, usually without
any victims. This summer, the Kurds changed their
tactics. An explosion a week ago in the city of
Cesme on the Aegean Sea wounded 20 people, including
2 foreign tourists. A group called the Kurdistan
Freedom Hawks, which is considered the radical wing
of the KWP, claimed responsibility for the
explosion.
Saturday's terrorist act occurred not far from the
resort city of Kusadasi, when an explosive device
went off in a fixed route taxi. Five people were
killed, including a British and an Irish tourist.
According to preliminary police information, the
explosion was the work of a female suicide bomber.
Up to now, such methods have not been very popular
with local extremists, although the KWP periodically
uses suicide bombers in confrontations with the
Turkish army and police.
This terrorist act gave the Turkish prime minister
an additional trump card in talks with the Russian
president on July 17-18. The topic of combating
terrorism was transformed from a routine matter of
protocol to one of the main subjects of the meeting
in Sochi.
An Informal Meeting on Terrorism
Prime Minister Erdogan planned to raise the question
of the activities of Kurdish organizations in Russia
with President Putin from the start. Especially
since the informal nature of the talks were
conducive to an atmosphere of trust and
confidentiality. In recent years, Ankara has posed
this question at nearly all talks with Moscow but
has received only a vague promise of tighter control
over the activities of these Kurdish organizations.
This time, the Turkish side will try to get Russia
to follow the example of the United States and the
EU and put the KWP on the list of terrorist
organizations and ban its activities on its
territory.
This is inconvenient for Moscow for two reasons.
First, most of the Kurdish organizations active in
Russia are involved in maintaining and popularizing
Kurdish cultural traditions. As Merabi Shamuyev, the
chairman of the International Union of Kurdish
Public Associations, told Kommersant, several dozen
Kurdish organizations of a political, cultural, and
folkloric nature operate in Russia. Second, all of
these are registered in strict compliance with
Russia law. Their founders are generally Russian
citizens. “We are in favor of an exclusively
political solution to the Kurdish problem based on
democratic principles and international law,”
Shamuyev stressed in his conversation with
Kommersant, adding that his union has never had
anything to do with extremism. “Of course, we carry
out various political actions, but all of these are
within the limits of the law; for example, we
sometimes picket the Turkish Embassy,” Shamuyev
explained.
However, experts believe there are undoubtedly ties
between the KWP and Kurdish organizations operating
in Russia, although it is very difficult to trace
them. It is no secret to Russian special services
that the KWP's ideas are very popular among the
Kurdish diaspora. However, Moscow absolutely does
not want to spoil relations with the Kurds. The
Kurdish factor is becoming increasingly important in
Middle Eastern politics. In northern Iraq, Kurds are
closer than ever before to forming their own
independent state, which is why Moscow believes that
close relations with them will be of use to Russian
interests in the region in future.
Nevertheless, to all appearances, Erdogan may get
concessions on the Turkish question in Sochi. The
terrorist act in Kusadasi has partially contributed
to this. In the age of global war on international
terrorism, it is inappropriate for Moscow to protect
organizations that organize terrorist acts against
peaceful populations. It is not inconceivable that
in the end Russia will have to put the KWP on the
list of terrorist groups. Matters will probably not
go beyond that, since it is extremely difficult to
prove the links of various Kurdish associations with
extremists. And Moscow is unlikely to try – a ban on
the activities of the KWP is quite enough to save
face, meet Turkey halfway, and not spoil relations
with the Kurds.
About Oil and Gas
Of course, this state of affairs doesn't entirely
suit Ankara. But patience is needed, since Russia
and Turkey are strongly dependent on one another
economically. Indeed, Putin and Erdogan are expected
to discuss questions of strengthening trade and
economic cooperation, particularly in the energy
sector.
Russia annually delivers several billion cubic
meters of gas to Turkey. Two routes are now in use –
a western route passing through Bulgaria, and the
Blue Stream pipeline partially laid along the floor
of the Black Sea. And, according to a contract
concluded last year between Gazexport and the
Turkish company Botas, it is planned to increase
deliveries through the Blue Stream gas pipeline to
the design capacity of 16 billion cubic meters by
2010. With the inclusion of deliveries of Russian
gas to Turkey via the western route, the total
volume of gas deliveries will amount to 30 billion
cubic meters.
At the same time, concern is growing in Moscow that
Turkey's domestic market will be unable to absorb
such volumes of Russian gas. This may encourage
Ankara to reexport it. Meanwhile, Russia itself has
long been nurturing similar plans. According to
Kommersant's information, during the talks in Sochi,
President Putin intends to convince Prime Minister
Eredogan to prepare himself for joint projects to
transit gas to markets in third countries. In this
way, Moscow is hoping to secure itself against
unauthorized exports of gas by the Turkish side.
The two leaders are also expected to discuss the
construction of an oil pipeline by the Caspian
Pipeline Consortium. Turkey is offering a choice of
two routes that would pass through its territory – a
European route (Kiyikoy–Ibrikbaba) and an Asiatic
one (Samsun–Ceyhan). Moscow is leaning more towards
a Bulgarian–Greek route (Burgas–Alexandroupolis).
But there may be concessions if the leaders can find
a common language on other questions in an informal
setting.
www.kommersant.com
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