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Kurdish expectations will test Assad,
Syria
13.7.2005
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More than ever, the
Syrian regime is feeling the heat of U.S. foreign
policy choices and of the changing strategic
situation in the Middle East. Domestically, the
matter of Syria’s disenfranchised Kurds has risen to
the top of the agenda, with the community showing
growing confidence. The importance of the Kurdish
question was particularly evident at the recent
Baath Party conference, when participants agreed to
address the demands of the discriminated-against
Kurds. The regime of President Bashar Assad knows
that the Kurds, if they choose to collaborate with
the policies of the United States, can seriously
threaten the regime’s authority.
Under Assad, Syria has seen the introduction of some
economic reforms and a modest, though sporadic,
loosening of political controls, even as genuine and
broad liberalization has yet to materialize. While
the Baath conference promised to resolve the issue
of the stateless Kurds, estimated at 150,000-200,000
from a total Syrian Kurdish population of some 1.5
million, there remains a possibility that little
real change will occur, at least not enough to fend
off Syrian Kurdish pressures against the Baath
regime, or those of the hawks in the Bush
administration.
The matter of Syria’s Kurds has long been
overshadowed by the fate of their brethren in Turkey
and Iraq. However, in a constantly shifting Middle
Eastern political landscape, this is now beginning
to change; Syrian Kurds are in the spotlight largely
because of the example of the Kurds in Iraq. Free
from the grip of Saddam Hussein and thanks to years
of self-rule and prosperity, Iraq’s Kurds have
gained a new prominence. They became virtual
kingmakers after the Iraqi elections in January -
which also allowed for the election of a Kurdish
regional Parliament - before seeing one of their
own, Jalal Talabani, named as Iraq’s president.
Meanwhile, Syrian Kurds continue to face
decades-long restrictions, including on the use of
their language. Since the advent of Law 93 of 1962,
the Syrian government has classified some 160,000
Kurds as ajanib, or foreigners. They cannot vote,
own property or work in government jobs. Another
75,000 or so are simply unregistered, and are known
as maktoumeen, or "concealed," having almost no
civil rights. Syria had for some time sought to form
an "Arab belt" between its Kurds and those in Iraq
and Turkey, mindful of the cross-border influence
between the communities. However, this desire was
considerably undermined by the influence of Kurds
from Iraq, so the Syrian Kurds are today
increasingly feeling encouraged to demand more
rights.
Since Kurdish rioting broke out in Qamishli in March
2004 at a football match, the atmosphere in
north-eastern Syria has been tense. The mood was
little improved after rioting again broke out in
Aleppo last month, following the news that an
outspoken Kurdish cleric, Maashouq al-Haznawi, had
been killed. The Kurds blamed the Syrian government,
which denied any involvement. Following the forced
Syrian troop withdrawal from Lebanon after the
assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister
Rafik Hariri, and amid intense international
pressure, this was hardly a welcome addition to
Assad’s agenda.
The United States sees Syria today as an obstacle to
its vision of democracy and change in the Middle
East. Damascus has come to realize the potential
seriousness of the new situation across the border
in Iraq and has tried to act quickly by responding
to Kurdish demands for change. The Baath conference
did promise to redress the Kurds’ situation, but was
not specific about a time frame and numbers. The
question is whether, on the back of this, the Kurds,
who are no longer fearful of the Syrian state and
who can plainly see Syria’s current isolation, will
not demand more, perhaps using both political and
military means in doing so.
It has come as no surprise, then, that Massoud
Barzani, the head of the Kurdish Democratic Party in
Iraq and the new president of the Iraqi Kurdish
entity, within days of taking power, voiced concerns
and support for the Syrian Kurds. Yet he also
demanded that their rights be granted peacefully and
through dialogue.
The Syrian regime is slowly realizing that
successfully tackling the Kurdish problem is crucial
for domestic stability and the country’s long-term
prosperity. If unchecked, the developing situation
regarding the Kurds has the potential to provoke a
severe backlash. Will Bashar Assad’s regime be able
to lower Kurdish expectations and dodge another
bullet?
www.dailystar.com.lb
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