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STANFORD, California
Iraq is rapidly approaching a watershed moment: the
unveiling of its new constitution. This event will
probably be seen in retrospect as either the moment
that the leaders of Iraq reconsecrated their
troubled nation, or as the opening act of the
country's descent into civil war.
It is troubling, then, that events are proceeding
with undue haste and a lack of public input, either
of which might doom the process and invite a
conflagration that would make the insurgency look
like a garden party.
Despite President George W. Bush's
no-retreat-no-surrender rhetoric, the military and
political truth about Iraq is growing clear: The
American military will not defeat this insurgency.
The rebels can be defeated only by political
reconciliation among Iraqi leaders, and the
constitutional process is the essential step.
The purpose of any constitution is to channel
conflict and competition into politics. A
constitutional process is supposed to translate the
political will of a nation into a concrete
agreement. But this seems unlikely to occur given
the current timetable - the Iraqi government has
until Aug. 15 to pass a new constitution and until
Oct. 15 to hold a public referendum on it.
If the nascent government is able to devise a
constitution by the middle of next month, then
they're probably missing the point. A constitution
cannot be written in a few weeks by a handful of
politicians at a conference table; creating a
founding document requires the long ordeal of
reaching political compromise and building trust.
Given the intensity of conflict in Iraq, it is
unlikely that broad political consensus can be
achieved any time soon.
What Iraqi politicians need more than anything right
now is to learn to trust each other. If the Sunnis
remain convinced they'll never get a decent shake
under Shiite rule, why shouldn't they fight? If the
Kurds believe they're better off without the rest of
Iraq, why not let the country fall apart? If the
Shiites think they will never be able to rule the
country peacefully, why shouldn't they do what they
can to rule by other means?
If Iraq's leaders end up with a constitution that
looks good on paper but doesn't reflect a real
political agreement, they will have failed. Not only
will the document be ineffective, but the Iraqi
people will see the inability to reach a real
compromise as a failure of the government as a
whole. That way lies civil war.
So what can be done? First, the Iraqis must commit
to a meaningful discussion among all factions as
they draft the new constitution - and this will take
time. The government must stop insisting that it
will meet the Aug. 15 deadline and take advantage of
the provision in the interim Constitution allowing
them an extra six months to come up with a draft.
If a decision to delay were accompanied by a solid
timetable for progress, it would not be seen as a
sign of weakness but as an indication that the
interim government is serious about making things
work.
Second, the Iraqis must reshape their constitutional
process to make it more inclusive. A first step
would be for the Parliament's constitutional
committee to hold forums with political leaders,
tribal chiefs and average Iraqis around the country.
The views of these outsiders should be documented
and shared with the entire committee, and also made
available to the public. The hard work of compromise
must stand on a platform of mutual understanding.
None of this will be easy. The men and women charged
with framing the constitution are in mortal danger
every day, and there are disputes that no level of
discussion will fully resolve. Final decisions on
regional autonomy, the distribution of power and the
role of Islam will leave many angry. But any
constitution that fails to consider all points of
view will probably be rejected in the national
referendum.
No, a legitimate constitution in and of itself will
not destroy the insurgency. But it would provide the
most powerful counterinsurgency weapon available to
the Iraqi people: a shared vision of a peaceful
future and an agreement on how to get there.
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