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Gloomy Outlook for Iraq Under al-Ja'affari
8.7.2005
By Eamad Mazouri |
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It seems that since Mr.
al-Jaffari has formed his transitional government,
he along with other members of his band have been
extraordinarily careful not to let pass a single
opportunity to show their displeasure, and often
irritation at achievements, the Kurds have gained
and the potential ones that remain to be achieved.
Regrettably, this is the precise kind of steps that
might lead to ensnare the government set up by those
who are not particularly pleased at seeing the
Kurdish-Shiites venture see the light.
Continuing on the same wrong path, the Shiites
Alliance, represented in the office of the prime
Minister, has not hesitated in expressing its
doubts, if not through explicit statements then by
the actions of their delegates, on each agreement
and accord they have signed with the Kurds before
and after the overthrew of Saddam's regime and of as
late as the most recent elections that carried Mr.
al-Jaffari to the position of premiership, only
after making a pact with Kurdistan Alliance List.
Beyond those issues of course, stands the dilemma of
Kerkuk, as the most oustanding impediment. A
well-documented, historically and demographically
Kurdish city until it was subjected to a heavy
Arabization campaign by Saddam's regime and even
before that.
A few weeks ago, the Iraqi National Assembly almost
unanimously granted its vote of confidence to the
government of al-Ja'affari. Although, not until the
necessary modifications sought by the Kurds were
made on its program.
Now, it seems that Kurds'partners in the coalition
government in Baghdad are attempting gradually to go
back on every step, including the promise they have
made prior to the formation of current government,
concerning the normalization of the situation in
Kerkuk, in other words implementing article 58 of
TAL.
From the very beginning, and following the end of
the latest elections, many Iraqis had their doubts
about the nomination of al-ja'affari as the favorite
candidate of the United Iraqi Alliance (UIA) to head
perhaps the last transitional government before
drafting the permanent constitution due august 15th
of this year. As the process of the formation of the
new government was lingering on, countless voices
were raised in protestation. No wonder, that few of
those came from within his own Shiites block in an
outright opposition to his nomination and bluntly
called on him to step aside, in order to pave the
way for others who might be better-qualified
contenders, allowing them to make an effort.
Consequently, it came as a surprise to no one except
perhaps himself, when one of the immediate fallouts
of his leadership was the hold-up- to a grave
degree- of the creation of the new government, owing
of course, primarily to his and those who stand
behind him, outdated views and obsolete ideas that
do not go well with the Iraq of post Saddam era . It
appears they have quickly forgotten what the new
Iraq is all about, including their own shot at the
government. The very principle of unanimous
agreement among major parties of the coalition and
other main players is the essence of Iraqi politics.
These powers are drawn together on a common ground
to serve the common interests of various Iraqi
people without giving any chance for the imposition
of any solution by any party on the others. Only
general agreement can do the job.
These views, include but are not limited to Mr. al-Jaffari's
obvious leaning towards Islamic Iran that has been
on the U.S. list of states sponsoring terrorism,
developing nuclear weapons uninspected, meddling in
Iraqi affairs, and has just elected Mr.Ahmadi Nejad,
a hard-line fundamentalist to be its president.
Already, he has been accused of being among the
American hostage taker and possibly responsible for
the assassination of the Iranian Kurdish leader Mr.
Qasimlu in Europe in 1989.
Second, Mr. al-Jaffari is well known for his
preference and promotion of Islam as the source of
legislation instead of sanctioning it as a source of
legislation in the upcoming permanent constitution,
a cause that has put them face to face with the
Kurds who are pro a secular regime.
Nonetheless, the most prominent point in the
performance of Mr. al-Jaffari and his entourage has
been their unambiguous unfriendly stance on major
Kurdish demands such as the reintegration of the oil
rich city of Kerkuk into Kurdistan region, embodied
in various recent statements issued by him and his
aides.
On top of all of this, it seems that, he is prune to
make unilateral decisions without consulting even
members of his own cabinet as it turned out to be
the case with his government's program and the host
of complaints that followed.
Unfortunately, the government of Mr. al-jaffari or
to be more accurate himself has initiated the
journey of the new government with the wrong stride.
Their assumptions are based on, if I may say, false
and misleading hypothesis that could be summed up as
the rule of the majority, not in the traditional
democratic manner as we understand it, but rather in
an old-fashioned sense that means simply replacing
the previous regime or ruling class or whatever you
might call it and building a strong central
government, where all the power is concentrated in
Baghdad. This concept, goes against the current
agreed upon propensity of establishing a democratic,
secular, pluralistic and federal Iraq. They have
assumed erroneously that repeating the former
experience of Iraq would be good and successful as
long as the Sunni Arabs are not in power, instead
the Shiites would replace them.
Having said that, and to prove our point, let us
take a quick look at the steps this or rather the
elite of this government has taken since assuming
power-Which is not very long- that are deemed
incorrect and often discourteous if not hostile,
especially to the Kurds who are after all their
chief partners in the government not to mention the
long odyssey of suffering they have shared at the
hands of the successive Iraqi governments since the
inception of Iraq.
_A range of what considered being argumentative if
not unfriendly and antagonistic statements and
remarks issued by several Shiites officials and
spokespersons, including the Prime Minister himself,
all of which pouring into one single declaration
that reads in big letters: Kirkuk is not Kurdish and
it will not be allowed to reunite with Kurdistan! In
other words, the current government of al-Jafari,
not only, will not carry out the article 58 of TAL
as a constitutional obligation, but also it will go
further miles against the wishes of Kerkuk denizens
if they choose to join Kurdistan in the forthcoming
referendum of course after normalizing circumstances
as the Kurds are demanding..
_Issuance of occasional warnings to Kurds,
sometimes, these remarks are laced with a thin layer
of forewarning which implies that Kurds are not to
exceed what they are allowed to seek, reminding
Kurds constantly of the limits within which their
demands ought to be confined.
_ Deliberately omitting the phrase that refers to a
federal and democratic Iraq when the government was
sworn in. A ceremony they had to repeat, but this
time in private, only after the Kurds made an uproar
and outcry. It is doubtful, if the incident was an
innocent oversight, but rather a test for the
Kurdish reaction and resolve.
_Ignoring the Kurdish pleas for expediting the
implementation of article 58 of TAL, by stalling on
the claims that the completion of such an
undertaking would be very costly and the coffers of
the country are empty now not to mention the lack of
time.
_While the rest of the dignitaries were present
including some diplomatic missions to Iraq, he
failed to attend personally, the first session of
Kurdistan parliament.
_Also not attending the swearing in ceremony of
President Masoud Barzani, after being elected for
the first time in Kurdish modern history to the
position of Kurdistan presidency. An event,
doubtlessly, amounts to historical proportions for
the Kurdish people if not regionally and
internationally.
_ The latest squabble between UIA and KA regarding
Iraq's envoy to Brussels Conference on Iraq.
_The most appalling statement of all, came a couple
of days ago, when Mr.al-Jaffari called among other
things for the postponement of the implementation of
article 58 of TAL that term the normalization of the
situation in Kerkuk before conducting a referendum
to determine whether the governorate would like to
join Kurdistan federated territory or not.
This awful remark sent shockwaves throughout
Kurdistan. Moreover, it drew immediate and strong
reaction from Kurdish leadership. The Kurdish angry
reply, sternly criticized such comments while
calling for the necessity of the immediate
implementation of article 58 without further delays,
and of course before drafting the permanent
constitution as it has been agreed upon just after
the recent elections. The Kurds are arguing
appropriately that delaying article 58 implies
amending the Transitional Administrative Law that
would require the approval of the presidential
Council and two-thirds of members of the National
Assembly.
What made matters worse, that this particular
statement of the Prime Minister Mr. al-Jaffari
justified his call for the holdup of article 58, by
suggesting implausibly that its implementation would
provoke Turkey, the Northern neighbor that is
troubled for no good reason over the Kurdish gains
in Iraqi Kurdistan.
Obviously, this declaration is totally void of any
subtlety and diplomacy. It is unlikely for any prime
Minister, holding the most powerful position in a
sovereign country, would publicly make such a
statement that clearly lessen the country of Iraq in
the eyes of the neighboring countries as well as the
rest of the world. The Kurds apparently had the
right to interpret this as an open call for those
who are lurking in the dark to interfere in Iraqi
internal affairs.
Nonetheless, the Kurdish reaction was swift and
sharp, and came from various leaders and officials.
While in Baghdad a few weeks ago, Mr. Masoud Barzani,
the newly elected president of Kurdistan, speaking
before Iraqi parliament, called for the
instantaneous recognition of the Kurdish identity of
Kerkuk. He also called for a repeal of all the
demographic and political changes the former regime
carried out in Kerkuk and other Kurdish regions that
were subjected to the despicable policy of
Arabization.
Furthermore, the Kurds were alarmed, when the word
leaked that the MPs from the United Iraqi Alliance
bloc have recently decided to put forward a demand
to postpone the issue of Kirkuk and undermine
Article 58.
Iraqi President Mr. Jalal Talabani and Kurdistan
President Masoud Barzani, last Saturday said, Kurds
driven out of the contested city of Kirkuk must be
allowed back now and not after a new constitution is
in place. "I am going back to Baghdad tomorrow and I
will demand in the name of the people of Kurdistan
and Masoud Barzani that article 58 be applied
immediately," Talabani told reporters in a press
conference with Mr.Barzani, Kurdistan's president,
at the northern resort town of Dukan.
They reminded the government that "The United Iraqi
Alliance (Shiite) and the Kurdistan alliance agreed
on this before the government was formed."
Yesterday, in a session in the Iraqi National
Assembly, representatives of KA introduced a
memorandum calling for the speed up of implementing
article 58 of TAL, by activating the normalization
committee of the situation in Kerkuk.
Some Shiites MPs argued that other cities have been
subjected to what they called "sectarian cleansing"
forgetting these cities, nevertheless, remain
dominant by Shiites Arabs while Kerkuk, a Kurdish
town was ethnically cleansed of its original Kurdish
inhabitants and replaced with Arabs. Not considering
the cult of the new settler, Kerkuk was about to
lose its Kurdistani nature as a result of
Arabization, and there is no room for comparison
here, not from the Kurdish point of view anyway.
The UIA that runs the show in Baghdad is about to
make serious mistakes by alienating Kurds who have
threatened repeatedly of withdrawing from the
coalition and boycotting the constitution. It is
obvious that their only ticket to be able to hold on
to the show is to keep their alliance with the Kurds
intact by responding positively to the legitimate
Kurdish demands. At the same time, pull in the Sunni
Arabs in to actively participate in the political
democratic process in Iraq. Any attempt to wander
away or go astray from the track of democracy,
secularism and a federated Iraq, would have severe
consequences on all, specifically those directly
responsible.
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