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Iraq constitution on track, but not end to
violence
15.7.2005
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BAGHDAD (Reuters)
- In a month, Iraq should have a constitution,
meeting a deadline set as part of a U.S.-backed
timetable for its transition from occupation to
independence.
Whether that can defuse bloody conflict to give
Iraqis a stable and sovereign state remains an open
question.
Three months ago, after it had taken 12 weeks just
to form a government, many doubted the Aug. 15
target for the draft constitution could be met;
long, bitter wrangling had dented hopes raised by an
election held, on schedule, on Jan. 30.
Now, few doubt that some form of draft constitution
will appear more or less on time -- even though the
parliamentary committee working on it has not, as it
once suggested, unveiled a preliminary text by July
15.
Once a draft text emerges, it will be approved in an
October referendum and form the basis of a new
election around the end of the year.
The process should involve Sunni Arabs, the once
dominant fifth of the population, who largely
shunned the last vote out of fear of the insurgents
in their own community or in protest at a system
that handed power to the Shi'ite majority.
"I don't think anyone seriously doubts there will be
a constitution more or less on time," said one
senior diplomat in Baghdad. "I'm impressed by how
hard everyone's working on it."
Sunni leaders, distancing themselves from the
insurgents and their foreign Islamist allies in
groups like al Qaeda, have called on their people to
vote next time to show their numbers.
The arrival on the committee last week of Sunnis
from outside parliament to offset their lack of
seats in the assembly has encouraged hopes the text
will find broad acceptance.
Gloomy talk last week from the Shi'ite and Kurdish
camps, forecasting deadlock after their first
meeting with the Sunni contingent, and comments
about an effective Sunni veto from the newcomers,
have given way to a return to expectations that the
most divisive issues can simply be put to one side
for now.
"You don't have to decide everything at once," U.S.
Deputy Secretary of State Robert Zoellick said after
visiting Iraqi leaders in Baghdad this week. "Small
is better," he said.
FRAMEWORK TALKS
Iraqi officials and diplomats stress the
constitution must be a framework for resolving
dispute rather than an attempt to settle every
conflict now -- including such vexed issues as
Kurdish ambitions to control the northern oil
capital Kirkuk or how far new federal regions might
be independent of Baghdad.
There may be drama yet: "It'll get into really
heavy-duty horsetrading at the end of the month,"
said another diplomat.
But an advantage becoming apparent is there already
exists a document on which to work -- the
Transitional Administrative Law, or TAL, drawn up
under U.S. oversight a year ago.
"Basically, wherever there's a dispute, the Sunnis
are ready to accept what's in the TAL," one of the
diplomats said.
Underlying the process are hopes in the government
and among U.S. and British officials whose 150,000
troops are holding the ring in this heavily armed
and divided nation that an inclusive political
process can undermine the insurgency among the
Sunnis.
There is broad acceptance that international
Islamists and hardline followers of Saddam Hussein
cannot be bargained with and will continue
disrupting society and the economy for years.
But "outreach" has become something of a catchphrase
among U.S. and British officials who, while
insisting on the Iraqi government's independence,
are pushing behind the scenes against any tendency
to impose government views by simple majority rule.
"The Sunnis have to feel they're being given their
rightful place," said one. "It will require the
Shi'ites and Kurds to reach out ... We are pushing
the Shi'ites."
One key concession for Sunnis may be reversing a ban
on Saddam's former Baath party supporters from state
jobs. Easing Sunni grievances could reduce the
freedom of maneuver the diehard insurgents enjoy at
the moment, officials say.
TROOP WITHDRAWAL
Washington and London are keen for domestic reasons
to start pulling out troops next year. They face a
dilemma of appeasing Sunnis demanding an end to
occupation while refusing to yield to violence:
"We're telling them, the quicker they end the
insurgency, the quicker we're out of here," a
diplomat said.
While some see foreign troops preventing civil war,
Prime Minister Ibrahim Jaafari has also stepped up
assurances to voters, weary of soldiers' often
menacing presence on the streets, that Iraqi forces
are being trained to replace them.
His criticisms of heavy-handed U.S. policing, along
with grumbling from his Shi'ite Islamist allies
about U.S. meddling in the process of trying Saddam
or U.S. contacts with Sunnis close to the
insurgency, as well as Jaafari's forthcoming visit
to Washington's regional foe Iran indicate some
independence.
There is considerable disillusionment among many
Iraqis that the economy and security have not
improved and Jaafari's team knows it will need their
votes in December to maintain its grip.
Officials in the U.S.-led coalition caution,
however, that measures popular among Shi'ites,
including warmer ties with Shi'ite Iran, should not
alienate Sunni voters further.
"But having more arguments with the Iraqi government
is actually a sign of progress," said a senior
coalition diplomat.
But others outside the coalition view the entire
process as flawed: "What Iraqi government?" said one
European diplomat.
"This is basically an American protectorate.
"The constitutional process will continue ... But
even Iraqi forces remain under American command ...
Violence will continue for many years and that will
obstruct economic reconstruction."
Reuters
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