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BAGHDAD, Iraq - (KRT) - As Iraq begins writing
its new constitution, leaders in the country's
southern regions are pushing aggressively to unite
their three provinces into an oil-rich,
semi-autonomous state, a plan that some worry could
solidify Iraq's sectarian tensions, create fights
over oil revenues and eventually split the nation.
In the southern Shiite Muslim city of Basra, where
the provincial government launched the campaign,
signs on the streets encourage residents to support
the plan. Local leaders have held several
conferences to map out their proposed state and
regional government.
Muhammed Musbih al Waely, the governor of Basra
province, said Shiites suffered under the last
centralized government, Saddam Hussein's, and that
they wanted to control the development of their
region.
"The next few months are going to witness a big
change in the region," al Waely said.
Al Waely's proposal would unite the contiguous
southeast Shiite-dominated provinces of Maysan,
Basra and Dhiqar into a single state. Basra, the
country's second-largest city and the principal port
city, would be the new regional government's
capital.
Aziz Kadhim Alwan, the governor of Dhiqar - whose
provincial capital is Nasiriyah - said he was on
board.
The region is rich with resources and trade
opportunities. Dhiqar could expand its trading
business through Basra's port; Maysan could expand
the other two provinces' trade with Iran. Basra
would be a more powerful city, with more oil,
agriculture, trade and tourism under its control.
The discussion has created tension in Basra between
Shiites and the Sunni Arab minority there. Some
Sunnis already have left because they think the
proposed new region excludes them. That response has
some fretting that a state defined partly on
religion could fuel the sectarianism that's engulfed
the country since the Jan. 30 parliamentary
elections.
Ihsan Numan, a Sunni and a Basra University student,
said some Shiite students had warned him that a new
regional state wouldn't be good for him.
"I was told openly by ... Shiite students, `You
better look for a place to go before this region
becomes a state. You were protected by Saddam, but
not anymore,'" Numan said. "My family and I already
feel the threat. Right after I finish my exams I
will take my family and try to go abroad."
The minority Sunnis, who already feel marginalized
in the country's political process, said they were
concerned that discussions about states would split
the country. At a Sunni Arab conference earlier this
week among the sect's leadership, the group released
demands for participation in the national
government. Among them was a promise that the new
constitution would unify Iraq.
The southeast regional plan already has support in
the National Assembly, including from the chairman
of the constitutional committee, Homam Hamoodi.
Hamoodi said he wanted an Iraq governed by
administrative federalism that included at least two
states.
"Most everybody agrees on federalism," Hamoodi said.
Another assemblyman, Khudaier al Khuzaie, a
prominent member in the Shiite-dominated slate, the
United Iraqi Alliance, and a member of the
constitutional committee, said the committee was
discussing the topic, and that it had many
supporters.
"It just needs constitutional development," al
Khuzaie said.
The idea for grouping Iraq's 18 provinces into
states first appeared in the U.S.-brokered interim
constitution, which allowed up to three provinces,
excluding Baghdad and Kirkuk, to become "regions
amongst themselves." So far, only the Kurds in the
north have created such a region.
As the Kurds gained more power in the newly elected
centralized government, the Shiites began discussing
a region of their own to counter what they thought
was too much political power for the Kurds, analysts
said.
"They way they played it out, Kurdistan was a
behemoth with a disproportionately high amount of
power in Baghdad," said Juan Cole, a history
professor at the University of Michigan who
specializes in Shiite Islam.
The interim constitution governs the country until
the National Assembly drafts a permanent
constitution, which it's supposed to do by Aug. 15,
and it's ratified in a national vote.
Al Waely said he and the governors of the two other
provinces planned to bring their proposal to the
constitutional committee within weeks, hoping that
the permanent constitution would spell out the
relationship between their proposed state and the
central government.
While U.S. officials don't oppose a Shiite region,
one Western diplomat who spoke on condition of
anonymity said southern leaders who thought their
proposed state would give them control over the oil
there probably were wrong.
"The people in southern Iraq assume that if they
have this kind of government, they'll have more
resources, that they'll have oil revenue," the
diplomat said. "That is not self-evident, however,
because the oil revenues are treated as national
revenues in the transitional" government.
"I think there will be quite a push among Iraqis in
the constitutional debates to put oil revenues
outside the control of any regional government," he
added.
Al Waely said he expected part of that revenue to
stay in the south.
Earlier this year, the then-governor of
Sunni-dominated Anbar province, Sheik Fasal al Goud,
proposed creating a Sunni regional government in the
west, but many religious leaders rejected the
notion. Part of the problem for the Sunnis is that
Sunni Arab areas have few natural resources,
prompting many Sunnis to call for more
centralization.
Many observers are worried that grouping provinces
into states may push the country toward
Balkanization.
In a report last month called "Power-Sharing in
Iraq," David L. Phillips of the New York-based
Council of Foreign Relations, a foreign policy
research organization, argued that a three-state
system - Kurdish, Sunni Arab and Shiite - would fuel
sectarianism.
The University of Michigan's Cole said a system of
regional governments might not last long term,
particularly if states with enough natural resources
to support themselves fought for independence.
"It solves a lot of problems, but I am not sure it
leads to long-term stability," Cole said.
Al Waely said there was no intention of splitting
off. "Absolutely not," he said.
One U.S. official, who asked not to be named, said
the Americans would welcome any plan under one
condition: "We insist Iraq must stay unified."
(Knight Ridder special correspondents Huda Ahmed and
Shatha al Awsy contributed to this report.)
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