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April 5, 2005 -- MORE than two months after
Iraq's inspiring elections, the country's political
factions still have not been able to agree on a
president, prime minister or Cabinet. Is democracy
failing in Baghdad?
No. At least not yet. There are very good reasons
why the back-room bartering has taken so long.
Anyway, Americans needed almost a decade and a half
to get from our Declaration of Independence to the
swearing in of our first president, with plenty of
acrimony along the way.
Compared to us, the Iraqis look efficient.
We need to be patient. There's real progress — the
parliament just elected a speaker, a Sunni Arab,
Hajim al-Hassani. There's hope that the rest of the
government will fall into place this week or next.
Even if the new Cabinet isn't sworn in for another
month, it's better for the Iraqis — all Iraqis — if
they settle as many of the big issues now as they
can.
The ethnic and religious rivalries go deep. Plenty
of hands have blood on them. If any commodity is in
short supply in Iraq, it's trust. If Iraqis can't
agree to respect each other's rights and needs at
this point, it won't happen later.
With the second-largest party in parliament, the
Kurds have been tough bargainers. They need to be.
Having suffered genocide, ethnic cleansing,
dispossession, torture and rape at the hands of Arab
Iraqis, the Kurds need to draw clear lines past
which would-be tyrants will not be able to step.
The Kurds would prefer independence — and they
deserve it — but they're determined not to be the
spoilers in Iraq. As one of the greatest Kurdish
statesmen, Barham Salih, told me last year, "If Iraq
fails, it won't be the fault of the Kurds."
But the Kurds need to protect the freedom they've
already gained. They're progressive, tolerant and
comparatively secular. They can't accept a
"dictatorship of the majority" in which Shi'a
clerics attempt to impose Sharia law on Iraq.
Of course, many Shia and Sunni Arabs don't want to
live under Islamic law, either. The Kurds are
defending the rights of all Iraqis to enjoy their
new-found freedom.
The Kurds also need to establish the status of
Kirkuk, a traditionally Kurdish city that Saddam
tried to Arabize. Postponing a decision will lead to
violence and division. With its oil reserves and
strategic position, the city is essential to Kurdish
security. All parties must be treated justly, but
the Kurds cannot be denied the ancestral homes
Saddam's regime stole.
The Kurds need guarantees, in multiple forms, that
their rights will be respected. Otherwise, they have
no future in Iraq.
The Sunni Arabs, too, worry over their rights under
the new system. Many of their politicians and
opinion leaders who boycotted the January election
now rue the decision. They're trying to find a path
into the government, to ensure that their concerns
are heard as the constitution is written.
Encouragingly, the other factions want to include
them.
It's democracy in progress: frustrating, slow and
imperfect. If you want fast decisions, call a
tyrant.
On the Shia side, the monolithic voting block is
cracking. Simply being Shia together isn't enough.
Interests are diverging — another healthy
development.
The real intransigents aren't Kurds or Sunni Arabs,
but the most conservative Shia mullahs. They believe
Islamic law should shape the constitution, a move
that would be disastrous.
The hardline mullahs hate the requirement for a
two-thirds majority to alter basic laws that the
Coalition left behind. That critical rule prevents
the Shia majority from dominating the country's
minorities. Imposing it was the wisest thing we did
since deposing Saddam. But the Shia — with no
experience of democracy — don't understand why,
having won a majority, they can't impose their will
on the entire country.
If the Shia clerics don't learn the limits of their
power now, it will be far harder to restrain them
later.
Forming the Cabinet isn't just about finding the
best man or woman for each job. As in every
democracy, political considerations come into play.
But in the fledgling Iraqi system, the stakes are
immense. The apportionment of Cabinet posts must be
finely calibrated. Justice, security, minority
rights, oil revenues and the future constitution are
at stake.
The new government has to simultaneously fight
terrorists, heal a badly wounded country and write a
constitution that will secure a better future for
all of Iraq's people.
The Iraqi pols may not get all of it right. They may
even fail. But impatience won't help.
There'll soon be a government in place. With a Shia
prime minister, a Kurdish president, a Sunni Arab
parliamentary speaker and a multiethnic,
multi-confessional Cabinet.
And they'll all be held accountable at the next
elections.
The new government won't be perfect. The squabbling
won't stop. Divisive issues won't disappear. We'll
see political betrayals, tantrums and no end of
grandstanding by demagogues. There'll be no shortage
of errors to criticize — or of self-important
critics.
Baghdad's starting to look a lot like Washington.
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