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Growing Shia calls for their prime ministerial
nominee to be replaced by a more moderate candidate.
Ibrahim Al-Ja’afari is under pressure from leading
Shia to withdraw as their candidate for post of
premier because of his slowing progress on forming a
new government and concerns over his Islamist
orientation.
Al-Ja’afari, the candidate of the Shia-dominated
United Iraqi Alliance, UIA, is apparently struggling
to deal with Kurdish demands for greater autonomy
and a general resistance to the possible imposition
of Islamic law, after more than a month of
negotiations on the formation of a new government.
For the moment, the Kurdish delegation to the
government talks have put all negotiations on hold
while its members participate in the week-long New
Year festival of Naroz, which began on March 21.
The Elaph web site - a reliable London-based Arabic
news service - quoted sources close to the
negotiations as confirming that influential UIA
members are calling for the Islamist Al-Ja’afari to
be replaced as prime ministerial candidate due to
his failure to reach an agreement with the Kurds and
other groups on a new government.
In another development, a spokesman for the Shia
Political Council, SPC - which is part of the UIA -
said that the UIA’s choice of an Islamist candidate
for the post of prime minister had raised fears
among all the groups in the alliance.
The SPC spokesman, council secretary Hussein Al-Musawi,
warned that the UIA might fall apart if Al-Ja’afari,
leader of the Al-Da’wa Islamic party, remained its
favoured candidate.
Al-Musawi said that the council’s proposal – that
the UIA elect a new candidate by secret ballot – had
been rejected.
The SPC, an umbrella organisation representing some
20 parties and groups, claims it has mustered the
support of almost 50 of the UIA’s 140 members
elected to the 275-strong National Assembly.
Al-Musawi told the US-funded Arabic Radio Sawa that
several groups are considering withdrawing from the
UIA. He identified these as the SPC, the National
Bloc - which is close to the young Shia firebrand
clergyman Moqtada Al-Sadr - and the Sunni bloc.
Leading council member Dr Ahmad Chalabi - who heads
the Iraqi National Congress, INC - had been one of
four potential candidates for the post of premier,
but he and two other contestants withdrew in favour
of Al-Ja’afari. They later said that their decision
had been dictated by their desire to preserve unity
within the UIA.
But Kurdish sources confirmed that a week ago
Ayatollah Hussein Al-Sadr, a leading Shia clergy and
a member of The Iraqi List, hosted a meeting at his
Baghdad house between the leader of the grouping
Ayad Allawi and Chalabi.
Many press reports suggested that Chalabi was now
considering linking up with Allawi and the Kurds to
propose their own candidate for premier. This move
coincides with reports leaked by the Kurds to the
media indicating that they too are not happy with
the UIA’s choice of candidate.
To strengthen his position within the UIA, Al-Ja’afari
is now trying to persuade Allawi to take part in the
cabinet. However, Allawi refused the offer - saying
that his political programme and that of the Shia
alliance were incompatible.
The Kurds insist that a new government should be
formed by consensus with the participation of
Allawi’s group and some Sunni Arab factions which
did not take part in the elections.
If Al-Ja’afari withdraws, the contest will be
between the three other original UIA candidates -
Chalabi, SCIRI’s Adel Abdul Mahdi (the outgoing
finance minister) and scientist Hussein Al-Shahristani,
a close ally of Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani. But
it will also revive Allawi’s hopes.
Significantly, the Americans - who many observers
feel favour Allawi - have until now refrained from
interfering in the controversy.
Privately, Kurdish leaders would prefer either the
secularist Allawi, or the moderate Islamist Abdul
Mahdi for the top job. They have been working with
the duo in exile for years and feel more comfortable
with them than with the more liberal but
unpredictable Chalabi.
However, Al-Ja’afari is still officially the UIA
candidate and might well stay that way. The National
Assembly’s next meeting is scheduled for March 26,
and there are still contradicting reports regarding
a possible announcement about the new government on
that day.
Ordinary Iraqis cannot agree on who is responsible
for the delay. Many pro-UIA Iraqis blame the Kurds -
accusing them of putting their ethnic interests
above those of the Iraqi people. Other Iraqi Arabs,
while they may not necessarily agree with the
Kurdish position, welcome the fact that it appears
to have weakened the Shia hardliners’ demands for
Sharia law.
Last week, a well-known Iraqi Arab commentator,
Adnan Hussein, delighted the Kurds with his column
in the Saudi-funded and London-based Asharq Al-Awsat
daily newspaper. The title of his commentary -
“Thank you to the Kurds” – speaks for itself.
He said that the Kurds deserve praise from all
Iraqis for “vigorously defending a democratic future
for Iraq and their tough stance against the dark
forces of sectarianism who offer the Iraqi people no
option … but to fall under a religious-sectarian
autocracy modelled on the Islamic republic in Iran
or the Taleban in Afghanistan”.
Kamran Al-Karadaghi is IWPR’s Iraq Editorial Advisor
in London.
www.iwpr.net
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