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BAGHDAD: The two electoral powerhouses
representing Iraq’s Shia and Kurdish communities are
poised to clinch the countr’s two top jobs, with
results from the landmark January 30 polls expected
any time.
“Looking at the partial results, it appears that the
Sistani list will have more than 50 percent and that
Kurdish parties will come second,” said Sunni
politician Saad Abdel Razzak. “They should therefore
share the posts of president and prime minister
between themselves.”
Partial results announced on Monday showed that the
Shia coalition backed by Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani
had obtained 2,244,237 out of 4,366,843 votes
counted, or 51.4 percent of ballots cast. It could
even improve this score when the rest of the polling
stations in remaining Shia-dominated southern
provinces are counted, securing around 140 out of
the National Assembly’s 275 seats.
Meanwhile, a very high turnout in the northern
Kurdish areas also guarantees the joint ticket
formed by the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) and
the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) a strong
presence in parliament and plum posts in the
government.
With 1,075,534 votes, the Kurds are emerging as the
second political force in the country, ahead of the
Iraqi List of incumbent prime minister, Iyad Allawi.
More counting in the Kurdish province of Arbil
should ensure the Kurdish bloc retains its edge on
challengers and secures around a quarter of all
seats in parliament.
“Discussions are under way in order to reach a
consensus on the distribution of posts in the
executive and several scenarios can be considered,”
said Abdul Razzak, a sociologist and member of elder
statesman Adnan Pachachi’s party.
He believes the posts of president and prime
minister will not escape the Shia and Kurdish
winners, but the names of the candidates vary
depending on the combination. Abdel Razzak predicts
that PUK leader Jalal Talabani will get one of the
two top jobs.
The Shias’ premiership choice is Finance Minister
Adel Abdel Mahdi. However, if they were to settle
for the presidency, Abdel Mahdi would be edged out
by his boss in the Supreme Council for the Islamic
Revolution in Iraq, Abdelaziz Hakim, he said.
Such a deal would leave the minority Sunnis, still
reeling from the loss of power they wielded under
Saddam Hussein, without high-profile representation
in the next executive. But an expert on the Iraq
political process explains that the job of
parliament speaker that the Sunnis would naturally
be granted under those circumstances, could be a
very influential one in the upcoming
constitution-drafting phase.
“The constitution will be entrusted to a committee
including politicians from inside and outside
parliament that would allow for credible Sunni
figures to be included in the process,” he said on
condition of anonymity.
“But that would require a very efficient management
of the National Assembly, to ensure that the
provisions of the committee are not overruled by a
parliament” dominated by Shias and Kurds.
“I think the position of parliament speaker will be
a very important one. This person will have the
responsibility of channeling the debate, will have
access to all the committees,” the expert explained.
Abdel Razzak says the makeup of the executive will
be “a package where all the posts in the presidency
and the cabinet will be shared out and there will be
a lot of wrangling over key portfolios such as the
interior or the defence.”
“Once all this has been agreed upon, the parliament
will gather to approve the line-up. It could take a
few weeks,” he said.
AFP
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