|
BAGHDAD, Iraq (AP) Turbaned men in clerical
robes huddle with politicians in Western business
suits, hammering out the future of Iraq in backroom
dealmaking.
The political horse-trading has begun even before
final results of the Jan. 30 national elections are
announced.
None of the 111 candidate lists is likely to end up
with the two-thirds majority needed to make key
decisions, so much of the face of the new Iraq at
least in the coming transition period will be molded
by alliances and deals.
Partial returns point to a victory by the United
Iraqi Alliance, a Shiite-dominated coalition tacitly
endorsed by top Shiite cleric Grand Ayatollah Ali
al-Sistani. Leaders of the alliance, who have likely
won the biggest bloc of seats in the incoming
275-member National Assembly, are now focusing on
whom to back for prime minister.
The assembly will elect a largely ceremonial
president and two deputies, who in turn will choose
the prime minister. The assembly then ratifies the
choice.
U.S.-backed interim Prime Minister Ayad Allawi, who
leads a rival ticket, is believed to be seeking to
hold onto the position. But partial returns show his
party trailing both the Shiite ticket and a
coalition of major Kurdish parties.
The United Iraqi Alliance has said it wants the
prime minister's job, and Kurdish leader Jalal
Talabani has announced his candidacy for president.
The Shiite coalition is made up of Shiite religious
parties and other political groups that include some
Sunnis and Kurds.
Francis Brooke, an adviser to United Iraqi Alliance
member Ahmad Chalabi, said that Chalabi, of the
Iraqi National Congress party; Ibrahim al-Jaafari,
of the Dawa party; and Abdel Abdul-Mahdi, of the
Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution, are all
seeking the alliance's nomination for the position
of prime minister.
But the alliance's key strength its diversity is
perhaps its weakness, too.
Abdul-Mahdi and al-Jaafari come from
Islamic-oriented parties with close links to Iran.
Chalabi is a secular-minded Shiite and former ally
of the Pentagon who later fell out of favor with
Washington.
The alliance's diversity increased its appeal beyond
Iraq's religious Shiite community. But because the
ticket brought together competing parties, some
predict the coalition could fray after the National
Assembly convenes.
Much depends on whether the alliance votes as a bloc
and seeks outside allies, possibly the Kurds, to
beef up its dominance in the chamber.
Mouwaffaq al-Rubaie, a former member of the
now-defunct Iraqi Governing Council and a candidate
on the alliance list, said it was ''possible but not
probable'' that the ticket would split.
The question of who gets the presidency is also
likely to emerge as a point of contention.
Ghazi al-Yawer, the current interim president and a
Sunni Arab, has said he expected that the position
would go to a Sunni Arab.
But al-Yawer's ticket is trailing in the polls. Some
Sunnis stayed away from the balloting after the
Sunni militants who drive the insurgency threatened
violence and others called for a boycott to protest
holding elections under ''foreign occupation.''
The low Sunni turnout helped give the Shiites and
Kurds a huge lead.
The Kurds who so far are running second could prove
to be a critical factor in the dealmaking.
With the three big names appearing to be the United
Iraqi Alliance, the Kurdish list and Allawi's
ticket, the Kurds' endorsement could tip the scale.
Mullah Bakhtiyar, a senior official from the
Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, said a committee from
the Kurdish list was holding talks with the
different political groups. So far indications show
''a strong agreement'' between the Kurdish list and
the al-Sistani-backed Alliance, he said, though no
deal had been officially struck.
An alliance between the blocs would likely give them
enough power to deliver the presidency to the
Kurdish list and the premiership to the alliance.
That would likely leave the third top post of
parliament speaker for either Allawi or al-Yawer,
Bakhtiyar speculated.
In recent days, Allawi has met different
politicians, including al-Yawer and other Sunni
leaders. In an interview with Iraqiya television,
Allawi said that as final elections results are
announced, some new alliances would emerge and
others would collapse.
''It's the right of the winning tickets to impose
their demands on the political and administrative
arenas,'' he said.
He wouldn't say if he would support Talabani or al-Yawer
if both sought the presidency.
''We will ally ourselves with any Iraqi force that
responds to our demands: federalism, defining the
geography of Kurdistan, reversing the policy of
Arabization and giving the Kurds their share in the
leading positions,'' Bakhtiyar said.
Other talks between the main players and Sunni
groups seem aimed at dampening criticism that the
low Sunni turnout could undermine the Assembly's
legitimacy.
Mohsen Abdel-Hamid, leader of the Iraqi Islamic
Party, has said his group is interested in
participating in writing the constitution even
though it withdrew from the vote.
Others, such as the Association of Muslim Scholars,
an influential Sunni group of hardline clerics,
refuses to participate in the political process as
long as there's no timetable for the withdrawal of
U.S. troops.
But the Alliance's al-Rubaie argued that enough
Sunnis were willing to get on board.
''There are almost daily meetings with those
representing the Sunnis,'' al-Rubaie said. ''We're
very encouraged to see that the elections have
created a new inclination toward participating in
the political process.''
AP
Top |
® 