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While
many Iraqis continue to bask in the glow of last
week's successful election, some are busily engaged
in the actual ballot count while others attempt to
gauge the composition of the newly elected national
assembly.
In Baghdad, election worker Bairaq Salam Kadhim said
he knows the task of counting votes is an exacting
job that will require long hours. But he said he
doesn't mind because he is so happy that the first
democratic elections in Iraq in decades were a
success.
"I don't feel tired because the sense of joy is
overcoming my fatigue,'' said Kadhim, who worked at
one of the capital's polling stations. "What we're
doing is for those people who sacrificed and
martyred themselves for the sake of Iraq, and who
did not live to see elections.''
Taping ballot counting
Kadhim is among the 200 election workers who are
doing the final counting in Baghdad. Since two
elections were actually held Jan. 30 - one for the
national assembly and another for local governing
councils, election workers first separate the
national and regional ballots. Each individual
ballot his then counted.
To ensure transparency, the sorting and separating
process is being videotaped and supervised by
volunteer election monitors.
"The work requires accuracy and attentiveness, as
the responsibility for correct separation lies with
us,'' Kadhim said. "We also have to separate out the
spoiled ballot papers, such as those that contain
votes for more than one party, or have been left
unmarked.''
While official results aren't expected to be
released for several weeks, some are attempting to
determine the shape of the potential political
landscape.
Most observers believe that none of the major
political coalitions will have won an outright
majority in the new, 275-seat transitional national
assembly. That's the body that will write the
country's new constitution and choose a president
and two vice presidents, who will, in turn, select a
prime minister.
That means that political parties must almost
immediately begin forming coalitions and striking
compromises if the body is to deal successfully with
the major challenges that lie ahead. The first will
be how to bring Sunni Muslims, who by and large
opted not to participate in Sunday's vote, into the
government. Analysts have warned that a failure to
bring Sunnis on board could result in civil war. But
will the parties that took part in the election be
willing to give up newly won assembly seats to Sunni
politicians?
A second issue will be the desire of some Shia
political groups to impose a religious agenda in
Iraq. Analysts have suggested that the country's
supreme Shia leader, Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani,
supported the slate of candidates running as members
of the Shia-led United Iraqi Alliance as a way of
gaining leverage in the shaping of the drafting of
the country's new constitution.
Sistani is said to support the idea of making Islam
the official religion of Iraq, as it is in almost
all Arab countries.
Analysts also believe that some Shia politicians
will seek to introduce Islamic law into the
country's civil code. Last year, religious members
of the U.S.-appointed Iraqi Governing Council
attempted to change Iraq's laws in order to limit
women's rights in such matters as divorce and
inheritance. Those plans were shelved after a public
outcry from women's activists in Iraq and abroad,
but are likely to resurface if religious-minded
politicians play a major role in the new interim
legislature.
Ethnic divisions
In addition, ethnic divisions are likely to surface
in the new assembly. Kurds can be expected to push
for their autonomous status to be written into the
new constitution. The depth of Kurdish desire for
their own state was demonstrated Sunday when voters
were invited by Kurdish activists to cast ballots in
a separate, unofficial poll on whether the northern
part of the country should seek independence.
Shia legislators can be expected to challenge the
Kurd's current veto power over the content of the
new constitution.
Political parties won't have much time to resolve
these difference if they are to meet the August
deadline for drafting the new constitution. Voters
are scheduled to vote on the new constitution in
October, and then return to the polls in December to
elect a new parliament.
Paul Tooher is an editor with the Institute for War
& Peace Reporting, a nonprofit organization that
trains journalists in areas of conflict,
www.iwpr.net
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