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Provisional figures from the Iraqi election indicate
that the main Shia alliance may have won as much as
half the votes, and suggest a better than expected
showing by the Kurds.
But the Sunni community won just a tiny fraction of
the votes and will have to make do with a handful of
seats in the transitional national assembly.
Although the official result of Sunday's poll is not
expected to be announced for several days, the
Guardian has seen three sets of provisional voting
figures compiled separately by a senior Iraqi
official, a leading member of the Shia alliance, and
a top Kurdish politician.
A rough analysis of the numbers suggest that the
United Iraqi Alliance, the main Shia list, is
hovering around the 48-50% mark, which could give it
135 to 138 of the 275 seats in the assembly.
The Kurdish slate is running at about 30% - 85 to 90
seats - which could give it the balance of power in
the new parliament and the possibility of acting as
kingmaker in the creation of the transitional
government.
In third place is the coalition headed by the
interim prime minister, Ayad Allawi, with 12% to 15%
of the vote, and in a strong fourth place is the
Iraqi Communist party.
Lists led by Sunni Arab politicians, such as the
interim president Ghazi al-Yawer and Adnan Pachachi,
are thought to have won only a couple of seats each.
But it emerged yesterday that Iraq's leading Sunni
clerics may agree to join in drafting the new
constitution, even though they believe the election
of the national assembly that will be in charge of
writing it lacked legitimacy.
"The Association of Muslim Scholars has received an
invitation from Iraq's president, Ghazi al-Yawer, to
take part, and we will meet shortly to discuss it,"
said Sheikh Yusuf al-Hassan, head of the
association's Basra branch.
The turnout figures are uncertain, but it seems that
relatively few Sunnis voted, partly for security
reasons but also because of boycott calls. This has
raised the danger of further Sunni alienation.
The Association of Muslim Scholars issued a
statement saying that the election lacked legitimacy
"because a large portion of these people who
represent many spectrums have boycotted it".
It added: "We make it clear to the United Nations
and the international community that they should not
get involved in granting this election legitimacy,
because such a move will open the gates of evil."
But it kept the door open by saying: "We are going
to respect the choice of those who voted and we will
consider the new government - if all the parties
participating in the political process agree on it -
as a transitional government with limited powers."
Mr Allawi indicated that there was broad agreement
in favour of including the Sunni community in the
process.
"All parts and all sectors of Iraqi society should
be involved," a statement issued by his office after
a meeting of 16 electoral blocs said.
Mr Allawi may well lose his job in the post-election
political landscape: the head of the Shia list,
Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, has said the next prime
minister should come from his group.
Before the election the US tried to prevent a Sunni
boycott by sending a senior diplomat in Baghdad to
visit the association's leaders.
The clerics said they would take part only if the US
committed itself to an early troop withdrawal.
The biggest Sunni party, the Islamic party of Iraq,
dropped out of the contest in December, but its name
had already been printed on the ballot paper.
"We support the principle of elections," Sheikh
Yusuf al-Hassan said. "They are the only way to move
Iraq away from dictatorship to an assembly where
people have free choice.
"Our boycotting did not arise from sectarianism, and
we did not issue a fatwa calling on people not to
vote."
He added: "The independent election commission is
partisan. We have proof that many members are linked
to political parties."
He accepted that many Sunnis in Basra had voted, but
described a statement by the foreign secretary, Jack
Straw, that half may have done so as "a bit
exaggerated".
Western diplomats concede that the turnout appeared
to be "quite low" in Anbar province, which includes
Falluja and Ramadi.
Sunni scholars have mediated on several occasions
between US commanders and insurgent groups in the
two cities, and have helped to get hostages
released.
There was no let-up in the violence yesterday: seven
Iraqis died in three roadside bombings in Samarra.
http://www.guardian.co.uk
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