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As
post-election speculation takes hold, the big
players - Shia and Kurds - consider their options,
with cooperation seen as a better bet than
confrontation.
Although official election results have yet to be
announced, Iraq's political parties are already
manoeuvring to secure positions in a new
administration. With no one group likely to win an
outright majority in the interim parliament, the
talk is of coalition-building rather than
competition.
One of the stronger possibilities is a coalition
between Shia and Kurdish groups, both of which are
certain to have benefited from high turnouts in the
north and south of Iraq, and will be in a position
to take the reins of the transitional National
Assembly.
For the National Assembly ballot (as opposed to the
regional elections also held on January 30), the
dominant parties in the north, the Kurdistan
Democratic Party, KDP, and Patriotic Union of
Kurdistan, PUK, formed a joint list, while the main
Shia parties coalesced into the United Iraqi
Alliance.
Both blocs also included smaller elements
representing other religions and ethnicities.
"The Kurds and Shias are natural partners for each
other," said Fouad Hussein, of the Iraqi
Communication and Media Commission. "But it depends
on the Shias: if they get 160 seats [out of a total
of 275], then they will feel strong and won't need
the Kurds.
"But if the Kurds can make a king, they can also
destroy a king."
IWPR has learned from a senior Kurdish politician,
who preferred not to be named, that early results
place the Shia-led bloc in front and the Kurds
second.
According to this source, the United Iraqi Alliance
received 45 per cent of the vote and the Kurdish
Alliance List 30 per cent. The Iraqi List led by
interim prime minister Ayad Allawi came third with
15 per cent, and in fourth place was the People's
Union, a bloc established by the Iraqi Communist
Party, winning 10 per cent.
These early figures suggest that as expected, no
single party or bloc received the two-thirds
majority it would need to rule without a coalition
partner.
Each bloc list or party will be awarded seats in the
275-member National Assembly in approximate
proportion to its share of the national vote. That
would mean - on present showing - that the United
Iraqi Alliance would get about 124 seats, the Kurds
83 seats, the Iraqi List 41 and the People's Union
28.
A partnership between the Alliance and the Kurds
would give them a two-thirds majority.
But Prime Minister Allawi, who has hinted that he
could step forward as a secular Shia alternative to
the Alliance, could seek to form a coalition with
the Kurds or the People's Union in order to block
the big Shia grouping.
Raja al-Khazay, a candidate on Allawi's Iraqi List,
hinted at this possibility, saying, "The Kurdish
list is some extent similar to the Iraqi List" - a
reference to their common secular stance. But she
refused to say whether the Allawi group was in fact
pursuing this option.
The United Iraqi Alliance might itself go for
another partner. Radha Jawad, a political bureau
member of the Supreme Council of Islamic Revolution,
SCIRI - one of the dominant Shia parties in the
Alliance - has said negotiations are currently under
way with the Kurds. But he indicated that talks were
also taking place with other groups, including Sunni
parties which boycotted the election.
Jawad said the Alliance plans to talk to the Iraqi
List, too, given Allawi's Shia identity, said Jawad.
"We have a good relationship with Allawi and his
party, the Iraqi National Accord, as we have worked
with them for the last two years. So I don't think
Shia unity is in danger," he said.
Under the interim constitution, the National
Assembly will appoint a president and two
vice-presidents. In turn, the president and his
deputies will choose a party or coalition to
nominate a prime minister and form a government.
The United Iraqi Alliance is reportedly seeking the
post of prime minister, which would mean the job
would stay with a Shia. Kurds say they want the
presidency, which could leave the other top
position, that of National Assembly speaker, for a
Sunni.
Sadi Pira, head of the PUK's office in Mosul, says
the Kurds deserve to hold the presidency and at
least one ministry, which might be defence, foreign
affairs, oil, finance or internal affairs.
The PUK controls the eastern part of Iraqi Kurdistan
while the KDP runs the west.
"We have achieved a high level of development in the
Kurdish provinces, so we've shown that we are able
to rule," said Pira.
While each group naturally seeks the maximum
political advantage for itself, the Kurdish and Shia
political groups are going out of their way to
emphasise that the Sunni Arabs, too, will have a
place at the table, even if they do not get the
dominant role they once had.
"We are still insisting on forming a partnership
government that includes all segments of the Iraqi
people," Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, a leading Shia
politician who heads SCIRI, said on Al-Arabiya
television on February 1.
For the Kurds, Shafiq Qazaz, minister of
humanitarian aid and cooperation in the KDP-run
administration, said, "Sunnis are a very important
part of the mosaic of Iraq, and they have to be
accommodated.
"But they won't be rulers, and the game must be
played both ways. The Sunnis can't be blamed for all
the insecurity, but some Sunni elements are linked
to it. And if they are to be part of Iraq, they have
to abandon it."
The future political landscape is rapidly taking
shape. Iraqi interim president Ghazi al-Yawar said
at a February 1 press conference that the government
will not be formed until the end of February or the
first week in March.
But the absence of a new government will not prevent
the National Assembly from convening its first
sessions, he said.
The principal task assigned to the National Assembly
is to draw up a constitution for Iraq, which needs
to be ready in time for an October referendum.
The drafting process will almost certainly put
severe strain on whatever coalition partnerships are
in place by then. Groups which have cooperated to
win a majority in the assembly are likely to fall
out badly over such contentious issues as whether
Islamic law should be written into the constitution,
or what status should be accorded to the Kurdistan
region.
But for now, the parties are still basking in the
glow of elections that went better than most
expected, and are maintaining the spirit of
collaboration.
"The parties need each other, so they are
cooperating," said Fouad Hussein.
"After this part is over, they might use a different
kind of language."
This story has not been bylined because of concerns
for the security of IWPR reporters.
http://www.iwpr.net
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